The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-07 04:37 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘68%
Yields and TLT at ALERT extremes (+1.93σ TNX, -2.11σ TLT) with normal curve setting up mean reversion
2-day forecastYields likely to decline over next 2 sessions if economic data avoids upside surprises, triggering TLT recovery via mean reversion as 10Y fails to sustain above 4.70%
Watch
  • 10Y yield fails to break above 4.70%
  • TLT advances >0.8%
  • 2s/10s spread widens >5bp
26% [n=54] Brier 0.318
Financial↗57%
Equities maintaining 80% bullish direction ratio with NVDA/IWM at ALERT amid low dispersion
2-day forecastStocks likely to extend mildly higher over next 2 sessions if VIX remains suppressed below 16 and breadth does not contract further, though extended names may pause
Watch
  • SPX holds above 765
  • VIX closes below 15.5
  • NVDA holds above 215
30% [n=54] Brier 0.292
Commodity↗55%
Precious metals extended while broad commodities mixed in stable geo regime with muted transmission
2-day forecastCommodities expected to stabilize to slightly higher over next 2 sessions if USD rebound remains orderly and no supply disruption news emerges
Watch
  • Gold holds above 4350
  • Crude remains above 76.00
  • Broad index crosses 17.40
33% [n=54] Brier 0.296
Currency↗65%
EURUSD +2.35σ and USDJPY -2.27σ at extremes setting up for USD strength via mean reversion
2-day forecastUSD likely to strengthen over next 2 sessions driving EURUSD lower and USDJPY higher if rate differentials hold and mean reversion on crosses triggers
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.145
  • USDJPY rises above 159.00
  • Real yield spread widens 3bp
22% [n=54] Brier 0.320
Crypto↗56%
BTC in mild uptrend with low volatility and positive equity correlation in stable risk regime
2-day forecastCrypto likely to trade slightly higher over next 2 sessions if BTC holds key support and funding rates stay neutral with no dominance shift
Watch
  • BTC holds above 64000
  • ETH/BTC ratio stable
  • Perpetual funding rate >0
28% [n=54] Brier 0.259

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Yields and TLT at ALERT extremes (+1.93σ TNX, -2.11σ TLT) with normal curve setting up mean reversion
Financial↗
Equities maintaining 80% bullish direction ratio with NVDA/IWM at ALERT amid low dispersion
Commodity↗
Precious metals extended while broad commodities mixed in stable geo regime with muted transmission
Currency↗
EURUSD +2.35σ and USDJPY -2.27σ at extremes setting up for USD strength via mean reversion
Crypto↗
BTC in mild uptrend with low volatility and positive equity correlation in stable risk regime

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
2 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
EURUSD=X equity $1.16 $1.16 +2.35σ 30d alert LONG
USDJPY=X * equity $157.60 $157.60 -2.27σ 30d alert SHORT
TLT equity $82.52 $82.52 -2.11σ 252d alert SHORT
NVDA equity $221.15 $218.99 +2.02σ 30d alert LONG
^TNX equity $4.67 $4.67 +1.93σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $298.25 $298.25 +1.58σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.46 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.20 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$444 · 4d
exposure $15,132 · 1 position · σ 14.2% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$38.51
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 21.1% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.45

Geopolitical Risk

0.41 stable

Geopolitical transmission to markets stays limited over 7-30 days as diplomatic channels in Ukraine and the Middle East offset headline risks; primary channels are energy with muted second-order effects on FX and risk assets, consistent with pre-priced cascades and observable market silence on escalation.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow conflict with proxy strikes near shipping lanes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Stalemate in Ukraine with targeted strikes on energy infrastructure

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
Indo-Pacific medium

Elevated Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan amid tech sanctions

risk_assetsfx
ES=F, USDCNH=X
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk medium high

Rapid Ukraine escalation triggering European energy supply crisis

Invalidate if: Breakthrough ceasefire negotiations or mutual force pullbacks confirmed by independent satellite and market flow data

Hotspot calibration: 170/234 hits (73%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-07

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+1.34; USDJPY=X: z=-1.36; CNY=X: z=-2.34
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-2.08
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
0/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.41
real_yield_10y: latest=2.41, z=+0.62
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-07

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -5.92 | 3m -0.75 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.4% | 3m 30.4% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -23.2% | Max -23.3%
ENB
4.00 (assets: 30)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 33% | High-Vol 17% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -5.92 | 3m -0.75 | 12m 2.38
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.4% | 3m 30.4% | 12m 38.0%
Drawdown
Current -23.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.00 (assets: 45)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (178d)121/27145% [39%-51%]+87.5%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/30% [0%-56%]-2.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.65 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (184d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1439d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1439d)312/67746% [42%-50%]+41.2%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/30% [0%-56%]-2.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.09 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.