The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-08 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘68%
10Y yield +1.85σ and TLT -1.91σ with normal curve and stable geo-risk score of 0.35 sets up mean-reversion as real yields detach
2-day forecast10Y yields likely to decline over next 2 sessions if no hot inflation surprise emerges and MOVE stays below 75, targeting reversion toward the 30-day mean.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks below 4.55%
  • 2s10s spread narrows by 5bp
  • MOVE index rises above 75
26% [n=54] Brier 0.318
Financial↘62%
NVDA at +2.32σ ALERT with 67% bullish direction ratio but contracting breadth momentum at -3 sets up mean reversion in leadership names
2-day forecastIndices likely to consolidate with downside bias over next 2 sessions if VIX holds below 15.5, triggering mean reversion on extended AI proxies below key levels.
Watch
  • SPX breaks below 768
  • NVDA closes below 218
  • VIX spikes above 15.5
30% [n=54] Brier 0.292
Commodity↗57%
Gold +7.6% 5d and industrial metals extending gains with stable geo hotspots and low transmission coefficient sets up for continuation on China demand
2-day forecastCommodity basket likely to stabilize higher over next 2 sessions if crude holds above 77.50 and no Red Sea disruption news emerges, with copper as key gauge.
Watch
  • Crude oil sustains above 78
  • Copper holds above 6.50
  • Gold stays above 4320
33% [n=54] Brier 0.296
Currency↘65%
EURUSD +2.18σ ALERT and USDJPY -1.97σ with stable rate differentials and geo risk 0.35 sets up for partial reversal toward means
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if real-yield spreads favor USD and equity consolidation persists, with USDJPY rebounding if above 158.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.157
  • USDJPY rises above 158.50
  • 10Y real yield holds above 2.0%
22% [n=54] Brier 0.320
Crypto↗56%
BTC near 65k with no strong sigma deviation, positive 67% direction ratio and stable regime sets up for modest upside on equity correlation
2-day forecastCrypto complex likely to grind higher over next 2 sessions if BTC holds above 64000 and funding rates stay neutral, with ETF flows as confirming signal.
Watch
  • BTC sustains above 64000
  • ETH breaks above 2620
  • BTC dominance stays below 52%
28% [n=54] Brier 0.259

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
10Y yield +1.85σ and TLT -1.91σ with normal curve and stable geo-risk score of 0.35 sets up mean-reversion as real yields detach
Financial↘
NVDA at +2.32σ ALERT with 67% bullish direction ratio but contracting breadth momentum at -3 sets up mean reversion in leadership names
Commodity↗
Gold +7.6% 5d and industrial metals extending gains with stable geo hotspots and low transmission coefficient sets up for continuation on China demand
Currency↘
EURUSD +2.18σ ALERT and USDJPY -1.97σ with stable rate differentials and geo risk 0.35 sets up for partial reversal toward means
Crypto↗
BTC near 65k with no strong sigma deviation, positive 67% direction ratio and stable regime sets up for modest upside on equity correlation

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
NVDA equity $221.89 $223.96 +2.32σ 30d alert LONG
EURUSD=X * equity $1.16 $1.16 +2.18σ 30d alert LONG
USDJPY=X equity $157.74 $157.74 -1.97σ 30d watch SHORT
TLT equity $82.76 $82.76 -1.91σ 252d watch SHORT
^TNX equity $4.66 $4.66 +1.85σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $301.56 $301.56 +1.73σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.55 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.20 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$5 · 4d
exposure $177 · 1 position · σ 14.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$1.65
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 20.5% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.35

Geopolitical Risk

0.35 stable

Contained state tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe maintain modest coupling to energy channels while diplomatic signaling and high inventories keep transmission coefficients low; second-order FX and risk-asset effects remain muted absent orthogonal tape confirmation.

Middle East medium

Iran proxy clashes with Israel and sporadic Red Sea incidents

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Ukraine front-line attrition and winter gas transit risks

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
East Asia low

Chinese military drills near Taiwan amid US arms talks

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPX
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

Coordinated cyber-physical attack on European LNG terminals

Invalidate if: NATO-Russia quiet diplomacy yields written assurances against infrastructure targeting

Hotspot calibration: 175/239 hits (73%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-08

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+1.77; USDJPY=X: z=-1.59; CNY=X: z=-1.59
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+4.9%, XLF:+3.7%, XLP:+2.3%, XLV:+2.2%, XLK:+1.4%, XLU:-3.4%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.62
real_yield_10y: latest=2.43, z=+0.93
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-08

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -5.50 | 3m -0.72 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.6% | 3m 30.4% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -22.9% | Max -23.0%
ENB
4.01 (assets: 30)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 33% | High-Vol 17% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -5.50 | 3m -0.72 | 12m 2.37
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.6% | 3m 30.4% | 12m 38.0%
Drawdown
Current -22.9% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.01 (assets: 45)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (179d)124/27645% [39%-51%]+87.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-1.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.65 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (185d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1440d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1440d)315/68246% [42%-50%]+41.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-1.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.09 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.