The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-09 04:38 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗56%
Firm rates setup intact with 10Y at 4.66%, TLT at -1.91σ and normal curve amid selective reflation
2-day forecastRates likely to hold firm or edge higher over next 2 sessions if commodity strength persists or NFP surprises higher, with 10Y targeting tests of 4.70 on reflation transmission.
Watch
  • 10Y yield >4.70
  • MOVE index rises above 73
  • Commodity index holds above 17.3
26% [n=54] Brier 0.318
Financial↗57%
AI leadership at extended rally with MSFT +2.63σ and NVDA +2.32σ amid contracting breadth
2-day forecastSelective risk-on likely to persist over next 2 sessions with AI proxies expected to lead if they hold key supports, triggering quality rotation if VIX stays suppressed below 15.
Watch
  • NVDA holds above 220
  • SP500 above 775
  • VIX remains below 15.5
30% [n=54] Brier 0.292
Commodity↗58%
Reflation signal in metals with uranium +10.0% 5d, gold +7.6% 5d and copper at +1.62σ WATCH
2-day forecastCommodities expected to remain firm over next 2 sessions if China demand proxies stable and no de-escalation signals emerge, with gold and uranium likely to hold gains on supply tightness.
Watch
  • Gold above 4370
  • Crude above 79
  • Copper futures >6.55
33% [n=54] Brier 0.296
Currency→53%
Mixed dollar setup with EURUSD at +2.18σ UP and USDJPY at -1.97σ DOWN on rate differentials
2-day forecastCurrency likely to trade mixed over next 2 sessions with EURUSD consolidating if differentials stabilize and USDJPY finding support on any continued risk-on tone.
Watch
  • EURUSD holds 1.155-1.165
  • USDJPY above 157
  • DXY stable near 98
22% [n=54] Brier 0.320
Crypto↗54%
Mild risk-on in crypto with BTC +2.2% 5d amid low vol and AI equity correlation
2-day forecastCrypto complex likely to grind higher over next 2 sessions if equity leadership continues and funding rates remain neutral, extending recent 5d gains.
Watch
  • BTC above 65500
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
  • Perpetual funding rate >0
28% [n=54] Brier 0.259

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
Firm rates setup intact with 10Y at 4.66%, TLT at -1.91σ and normal curve amid selective reflation
Financial↗
AI leadership at extended rally with MSFT +2.63σ and NVDA +2.32σ amid contracting breadth
Commodity↗
Reflation signal in metals with uranium +10.0% 5d, gold +7.6% 5d and copper at +1.62σ WATCH
Currency→
Mixed dollar setup with EURUSD at +2.18σ UP and USDJPY at -1.97σ DOWN on rate differentials
Crypto↗
Mild risk-on in crypto with BTC +2.2% 5d amid low vol and AI equity correlation

Signals

0 Critical
3 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
MSFT * equity $499.99 $499.99 +2.63σ 60d alert LONG
NVDA * equity $221.15 $223.96 +2.32σ 30d alert LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.16 $1.16 +2.18σ 30d alert LONG
USDJPY=X equity $157.74 $157.74 -1.97σ 30d watch SHORT
TLT equity $82.76 $82.76 -1.91σ 252d watch SHORT
IWM * equity $301.56 $301.56 +1.72σ 252d watch LONG
HG=F equity $6.59 $6.59 +1.62σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.47 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.20 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$440 · 4d
exposure $15,132 · 1 position · σ 14.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$192.08
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 20.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.44

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Middle East proxy incidents and Ukraine winter energy rhetoric show contained transmission primarily into oil and natgas curves, while Indo-Pacific posturing has not yet confirmed via risk-asset or FX safe-haven moves; diplomatic channels and absent orthogonal market confirmation keep overall regime stable with de-escalation equilibria available.

Persian Gulf medium

Iranian proxy militia clashes with Israeli assets near Hormuz shipping lanes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russian statements on restricting natgas flows to Europe ahead of winter

natgasrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X, TLT
horizon: 30d
Indo-Pacific medium

PLA naval drills encircling Taiwan following US defense package approval

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GLD, NQ=F
horizon: 14d
Top tail risk medium high

Coordinated cyber disruption to European LNG terminals amid Ukraine stalemate

Invalidate if: Renewed Minsk-style negotiations gain traction or natgas futures and freight rates show no corroborating orthogonal move

Hotspot calibration: 179/243 hits (74%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-09

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+1.77; USDJPY=X: z=-1.59; CNY=X: z=-1.59
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+4.9%, XLF:+3.7%, XLP:+2.3%, XLV:+2.2%, XLK:+1.4%, XLU:-3.4%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.62
real_yield_10y: latest=2.43, z=+0.93
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-09

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -4.95 | 3m -0.60 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.9% | 3m 30.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -23.0%
ENB
4.04 (assets: 30)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -4.95 | 3m -0.60 | 12m 2.39
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.9% | 3m 30.5% | 12m 38.0%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.04 (assets: 45)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (179d)123/27645% [39%-50%]+90.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-1.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.66 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (186d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1441d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1441d)314/68246% [42%-50%]+42.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-1.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.09 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.