The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-10 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗55%
10Y at +1.84σ and TLT -1.90σ with normal curve and commodity reflation transmitting into rates amid stable geo risk 0.38
2-day forecastLong yields likely to hold firm or test modestly higher over next 2 sessions if commodities remain elevated above 5d levels, unless NFP/CPI surprises soft.
Watch
  • 10Y yield holds above 4.60%
  • crude oil >79.00
  • MOVE index stays below 72
25% [n=55] Brier 0.318
Financial↗56%
NVDA +2.32σ alert with 71% bullish direction ratio, IWM +1.72σ and contracting breadth momentum -5
2-day forecastSelective equity gains likely to continue over next 2 sessions with AI and small caps leading if dispersion holds at 1.65 and VIX stays below 16, though reversion risk elevated at 2σ+.
Watch
  • NVDA above 220
  • Russell 2000 +0.5% relative to SPX
  • VIX remains under 16.0
29% [n=55] Brier 0.295
Commodity↗58%
Uranium/gold/copper all +6-13% over 5-30d with broad index +5.1% 30d transmitting reflation signal into other nodes
2-day forecastCommodity complex expected to stay firm or see mild extension over next 2 sessions if USD stays mixed and no supply disruption news emerges from hotspots.
Watch
  • Gold above 4370
  • Crude above 79.00
  • Copper holds above 6.55
33% [n=55] Brier 0.297
Currency↗54%
EURUSD +1.61σ and USDJPY -1.68σ with commodity currencies firm on reflation and stable central bank divergence
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to stabilize near 1.16 or edge higher over next 2 sessions if rate differentials hold and geo risk remains stable below 0.40, with USDJPY capping upside.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.158
  • USDJPY <159.50
  • No Middle East escalation headlines
24% [n=55] Brier 0.315
Crypto→53%
BTC stable near 65k with low vol, tracking AI equity momentum but no clear ETF flow or basis breakout
2-day forecastCrypto expected to remain rangebound with mild upside bias over next 2 sessions if equity leadership persists and VIX stays contained below 16.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 64000
  • ETH/BTC ratio stable
  • VIX below 16.0
29% [n=55] Brier 0.258

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
10Y at +1.84σ and TLT -1.90σ with normal curve and commodity reflation transmitting into rates amid stable geo risk 0.38
Financial↗
NVDA +2.32σ alert with 71% bullish direction ratio, IWM +1.72σ and contracting breadth momentum -5
Commodity↗
Uranium/gold/copper all +6-13% over 5-30d with broad index +5.1% 30d transmitting reflation signal into other nodes
Currency↗
EURUSD +1.61σ and USDJPY -1.68σ with commodity currencies firm on reflation and stable central bank divergence
Crypto→
BTC stable near 65k with low vol, tracking AI equity momentum but no clear ETF flow or basis breakout

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
NVDA equity $221.15 $223.96 +2.32σ 30d alert LONG
TLT * equity $82.76 $82.76 -1.90σ 252d watch SHORT
^TNX * equity $4.66 $4.66 +1.84σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $301.56 $301.56 +1.72σ 252d watch LONG
USDJPY=X equity $158.41 $158.41 -1.68σ 30d watch SHORT
EURUSD=X equity $1.15 $1.15 +1.61σ 30d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.54 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.20 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$440 · 4d
exposure $15,132 · 1 position · σ 14.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$237.22
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 20.3% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.37

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Middle East proxy clashes and Ukraine stalemate transmit primarily through oil and natgas with muted second-order FX/rates effects; independent flows show no major disruption while diplomatic signaling supports de-escalation paths over the 7-30 day window.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy engagements threaten Red Sea shipping but no sustained attacks on Gulf infrastructure

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 21d
Eastern Europe high

Reduced artillery exchanges along Ukraine front with reported backchannel talks

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 30d
East Asia low

US-China naval posturing near Taiwan without live-fire incidents

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPY
horizon: 14d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic strike on Iranian oil terminal triggering supply shock >15%

Invalidate if: Successful multilateral de-escalation talks or verifiable reduction in proxy militia activity

Hotspot calibration: 184/248 hits (74%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-10

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+1.55; USDJPY=X: z=-1.08; CNY=X: z=-1.94
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+4.9%, XLF:+3.7%, XLP:+2.3%, XLV:+2.2%, XLK:+1.4%, XLU:-3.4%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.62
real_yield_10y: latest=2.43, z=+0.93
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-10

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -4.95 | 3m -0.60 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.9% | 3m 30.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -23.0%
ENB
4.04 (assets: 30)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -4.95 | 3m -0.60 | 12m 2.39
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.9% | 3m 30.5% | 12m 38.0%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.04 (assets: 45)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (179d)123/27645% [39%-50%]+90.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-1.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.66 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (187d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1442d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1442d)314/68246% [42%-50%]+42.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-1.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.09 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.