The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-11 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
TNX +2.02σ and TLT -2.39σ at ALERT with normal curve and stable Fed path set up for mean reversion in yields
2-day forecast10Y yields likely to pull back from +2.02σ extremes over next 2 sessions if consumer sentiment holds above 49 and no hot CPI surprise, triggering TLT rebound via calibrated mean reversion
Watch
  • 10Y yield >4.85% would signal continuation instead of reversion
  • NFP print <150k accelerates pullback
  • 2s/10s spread widens >10bp confirms reversion
26% [n=58] Brier 0.321
Financial↗57%
AI proxies at WATCH/ALERT (NVDA +1.64σ, MSFT +2.59σ) with contracting breadth and low VIX set up for selective outperformance
2-day forecastSPX and NDX likely to stabilize with AI/quality names outperforming over next 2 sessions if VIX remains <16.0 and dispersion index stays >1.5, continuing leadership rotation
Watch
  • VIX >17 would pressure broad indices lower
  • NVDA holds above 215 confirms AI momentum
  • Russell2000 underperforms SPX by >0.5% sustains rotation
28% [n=58] Brier 0.298
Commodity↗59%
Broad commodities +3.4% 1d with gold +11.3% 30d and crude +9.0% 5d transmitting reflation while geo risk remains contained
2-day forecastCommodity basket likely to consolidate gains but hold firm over next 2 sessions if USDJPY stays below 160 and China demand signals stable, with gold and uranium supported
Watch
  • Crude >83.50 sustains reflation impulse
  • Gold breaks above 4500 accelerates upside
  • Copper <6.50 would signal China demand weakness
36% [n=58] Brier 0.292
Currency↗55%
EURUSD at +1.98σ WATCH with mixed dollar and stable rate differentials set up for range trading amid selective reflation
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to test modestly higher over next 2 sessions if 10Y yield reverts lower as forecasted and geo risk score stays <0.45, while USDJPY remains contained
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.17 confirms continuation
  • USDJPY >160.5 would pressure EUR lower
  • DXY >98.5 signals dollar strength reversal of mix
24% [n=58] Brier 0.318
Crypto→54%
BTC -3.3% 30d lagging AI equities with low perpetual funding and neutral ETF flows set up for range-bound action
2-day forecastBTC likely to remain range-bound with slight upside bias over next 2 sessions if NDX stabilizes and dominance does not spike, provided risk-on signals persist
Watch
  • BTC >65500 with positive funding rate confirms upside
  • ETH/BTC dominance shift >2% signals alt weakness
  • ETF net flows <0 sustains lag
28% [n=58] Brier 0.260

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX +2.02σ and TLT -2.39σ at ALERT with normal curve and stable Fed path set up for mean reversion in yields
Financial↗
AI proxies at WATCH/ALERT (NVDA +1.64σ, MSFT +2.59σ) with contracting breadth and low VIX set up for selective outperformance
Commodity↗
Broad commodities +3.4% 1d with gold +11.3% 30d and crude +9.0% 5d transmitting reflation while geo risk remains contained
Currency↗
EURUSD at +1.98σ WATCH with mixed dollar and stable rate differentials set up for range trading amid selective reflation
Crypto→
BTC -3.3% 30d lagging AI equities with low perpetual funding and neutral ETF flows set up for range-bound action

Signals

0 Critical
3 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
MSFT * equity $506.06 $506.06 +2.59σ 60d alert LONG
TLT equity $82.06 $82.06 -2.39σ 252d alert SHORT
^TNX equity $4.70 $4.70 +2.02σ 252d alert LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.16 $1.16 +1.98σ 30d watch LONG
NVDA equity $221.15 $217.55 +1.64σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $299.98 $299.98 +1.62σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.50 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.19 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$439 · 4d
exposure $15,132 · 1 position · σ 14.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$91.19
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 19.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.41

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Middle East proxy actions and Ukraine infrastructure strikes show contained transmission primarily into energy forwards, while Indo-Pacific naval posturing has yet to move funding currencies or risk gauges; independent tape confirms low coupling with multiple diplomatic off-ramps visible.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy clashes via Hezbollah and Houthis remain below threshold of direct strikes on Gulf infrastructure

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Targeted Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy nodes ahead of winter with limited impact on EU transit

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
South China Sea low

China-Philippines vessel incidents at Second Thomas Shoal without US direct involvement

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPY
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk medium high

Cascading cyber-physical attack on European LNG terminals amid Ukraine stalemate

Invalidate if: Renewed bilateral energy corridor agreements or sharp drop in natgas implied vol

Hotspot calibration: 187/252 hits (74%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-11

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +0.99
EURUSD=X: z=+1.23; USDJPY=X: z=-0.81; CNY=X: z=-2.43
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-1.72
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +0.54
credit_hy: latest=2.70, z=-0.81
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-11

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.37 | 3m -0.76 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 20.1% | 3m 30.4% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -22.7% | Max -23.0%
ENB
4.11 (assets: 30)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.37 | 3m -0.76 | 12m 2.04
Rolling Volatility
1m 20.1% | 3m 30.4% | 12m 36.8%
Drawdown
Current -22.7% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.11 (assets: 45)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 39% | High-Vol 11% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (182d)123/27744% [39%-50%]+90.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/743% [16%-75%]-3.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.66 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (188d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1443d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1443d)314/68346% [42%-50%]+42.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/743% [16%-75%]-3.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.10 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.