The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-12 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
TNX at +1.92σ and TLT at -2.26σ extremes with normal curve and stable Fed calendar setting up mean-reversion in yields
2-day forecastYields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if NFP/CPI schedule brings no hot surprise above consensus, with real-yield trajectory capping further rise
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks below 4.60
  • 2s/10s spread widens >10bp
  • TLT closes > prior session low
25% [n=59] Brier 0.321
Financial↗58%
MSFT +2.37σ and NVDA +1.62σ with bullish bias streak and low dispersion favoring AI/quality rotation over broad index
2-day forecastSelective risk-on likely to persist with SPX and AI proxies expected to hold or extend if VIX stays below 16 and breadth does not fall below -8 over next 2 sessions
Watch
  • SPX holds above 768
  • VIX remains <16.0
  • IWM maintains positive 1d close
27% [n=59] Brier 0.298
Commodity↗62%
Gold, uranium and crude showing firm 5d/30d gains transmitting mild reflation while geo hotspots remain contained without flow confirmation
2-day forecastCommodities likely to consolidate firm if crude holds above 82.50 and no ME escalation news emerges, with gold expected to remain supported over next 2 sessions
Watch
  • Gold stays above 4450
  • Crude oil >82.5
  • Copper holds 6.60 level
36% [n=59] Brier 0.292
Currency↘57%
EURUSD at +1.65σ UP amid mixed dollar, rate differentials and stable geo risk keeping commodity currencies range-bound
2-day forecastDollar likely to trade mixed-to-weaker if risk sentiment holds and central bank divergence favors EUR, expecting EURUSD to remain bid above 1.14 over next 2 sessions
Watch
  • EURUSD holds above 1.145
  • USDJPY fails to break 160
  • DXY <98.5
24% [n=59] Brier 0.317
Crypto↗54%
BTC showing modest daily resilience with equity AI leadership but negative 30d return and no orthogonal flow confirmation
2-day forecastCrypto likely to follow equity risk-on beta higher if BTC holds above 63500 and funding rates stay neutral-positive over next 2 sessions
Watch
  • BTC above 63500
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
  • VIX <16.0
27% [n=59] Brier 0.260

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX at +1.92σ and TLT at -2.26σ extremes with normal curve and stable Fed calendar setting up mean-reversion in yields
Financial↗
MSFT +2.37σ and NVDA +1.62σ with bullish bias streak and low dispersion favoring AI/quality rotation over broad index
Commodity↗
Gold, uranium and crude showing firm 5d/30d gains transmitting mild reflation while geo hotspots remain contained without flow confirmation
Currency↘
EURUSD at +1.65σ UP amid mixed dollar, rate differentials and stable geo risk keeping commodity currencies range-bound
Crypto↗
BTC showing modest daily resilience with equity AI leadership but negative 30d return and no orthogonal flow confirmation

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
MSFT equity $503.46 $503.81 +2.37σ 60d alert LONG
TLT equity $82.19 $82.19 -2.26σ 252d alert SHORT
^TNX equity $4.68 $4.68 +1.92σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $300.99 $300.99 +1.66σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X * equity $1.15 $1.15 +1.65σ 30d watch LONG
NVDA equity $217.50 $217.50 +1.62σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.29 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.19 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$396 · 4d
exposure $13,916 · 1 position · σ 13.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$86.32
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 19.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.61

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Contained state tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe transmit modestly to oil and natgas via second-order supply fears while safe-haven FX and rates show muted response; diplomatic signaling and absent physical-flow confirmation keep overall coupling low with explicit de-escalation paths priced in.

Middle East medium

Iranian proxy harassment of Gulf shipping lanes without direct strait closure

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe medium

Stalled Ukraine ceasefire talks with limited winter energy posturing by Russia

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 25d
East Asia low

Routine Chinese patrols near Taiwan with no blockade rhetoric

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X
horizon: 12d
Top tail risk low severe

Unexpected direct strike on Hormuz-adjacent infrastructure triggering oil spike and flight-to-safety rates rally

Invalidate if: Visible progress on Saudi-brokered de-escalation talks or mutual pullback of naval assets within 10 days

Hotspot calibration: 189/257 hits (74%), Brier 0.231 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-12

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +0.96
EURUSD=X: z=+1.11; USDJPY=X: z=-0.77; CNY=X: z=-2.43
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+7.4%, XLV:+4.1%, XLF:+3.1%, XLK:+2.7%, XLP:+0.1%, XLU:-4.6%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +0.55
credit_hy: latest=2.70, z=-0.83
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-12

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -10.98 | 3m -0.77 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.2% | 3m 30.4% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -23.6% | Max -23.6%
ENB
4.07 (assets: 30)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -10.98 | 3m -0.77 | 12m 2.04
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.2% | 3m 30.4% | 12m 36.8%
Drawdown
Current -23.6% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.07 (assets: 45)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (183d)124/28044% [39%-50%]+82.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/650% [19%-81%]-2.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.62 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (189d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1444d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1444d)315/68646% [42%-50%]+39.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/650% [19%-81%]-2.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.08 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.