The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-14 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗54%
Normal curve with TNX +1.65σ WATCH and stable geo-risk set up for firm rates ahead of data releases
2-day forecastYields likely to edge higher if NFP exceeds 200k or if commodity strength persists over next 2 sessions; consolidation expected on soft print.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks 4.70%
  • NFP >200k
  • 2s10s widens >5bp
26% [n=61] Brier 0.319
Financial↗57%
ALERT/WATCH upside signals on SPY/NVDA/IWM in low VIX environment set up for continued AI-led selective gains
2-day forecastEquities likely to extend if breadth holds above 60% and VIX stays below 15.5 over next 2 sessions with tech/small-caps leading.
Watch
  • SPX holds >775
  • VIX <15.5
  • NVDA >220
30% [n=61] Brier 0.294
Commodity↗55%
Firm gold/uranium/ag complex with contained geo hotspots set up for reflation without broad shock
2-day forecastCommodities likely to hold or edge up if Middle East skirmishes persist without physical disruption over next 2 sessions.
Watch
  • Crude >82.50
  • Gold >4425
  • Corn holds >470
36% [n=61] Brier 0.292
Currency→60%
Mixed FX with slight USD softening amid commodity firmness and stable rate differentials
2-day forecastUSD likely to remain mixed/range-bound unless NFP shifts rate expectations sharply over next 2 sessions.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.165
  • USDJPY <158
  • DXY move <0.3%
23% [n=61] Brier 0.317
Crypto↘52%
BTC lagging AI equities at -1.7% 5d with neutral funding set up for underperformance
2-day forecastCrypto likely to test lower or stay soft if equity dispersion persists and ETF flows stay neutral over next 2 sessions.
Watch
  • BTC <61500
  • ETH/BTC ratio declines
  • Funding rate <0.01%
26% [n=61] Brier 0.261

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
Normal curve with TNX +1.65σ WATCH and stable geo-risk set up for firm rates ahead of data releases
Financial↗
ALERT/WATCH upside signals on SPY/NVDA/IWM in low VIX environment set up for continued AI-led selective gains
Commodity↗
Firm gold/uranium/ag complex with contained geo hotspots set up for reflation without broad shock
Currency→
Mixed FX with slight USD softening amid commodity firmness and stable rate differentials
Crypto↘
BTC lagging AI equities at -1.7% 5d with neutral funding set up for underperformance

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SPY * equity $777.88 $777.88 +2.45σ 60d alert LONG
NVDA equity $224.87 $225.30 +2.10σ 252d alert LONG
MSFT equity $500.28 $496.88 +1.98σ 60d watch LONG
IWM equity $303.50 $303.50 +1.95σ 30d watch LONG
TLT * equity $82.59 $82.59 -1.89σ 252d watch SHORT
XLE * equity $61.06 $61.06 +1.81σ 60d watch LONG
^TNX * equity $4.64 $4.64 +1.65σ 252d watch LONG
QQQ * equity $732.07 $732.07 +1.58σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.36 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.18 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$770 · 4d
exposure $26,879 · 2 positions · σ 13.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$54.80
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 18.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.55

Geopolitical Risk

0.47 stable

Tensions persist in the Middle East and Eastern Europe but remain contained with active diplomatic channels; transmission is primarily to energy commodities via supply-risk premia while risk assets and rates show limited coupling absent physical disruption.

Middle East medium

Iranian proxy militias escalate skirmishes with Israeli forces near Golan and Lebanon border

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russian strikes target Ukrainian energy grid as winter approaches

natgasrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
East Asia low

Chinese military drills intensify around Taiwan amid U.S. defense technology transfers

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, ES=F
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

NATO-Russia confrontation triggered by Ukrainian infrastructure strike spillover

Invalidate if: Successful third-party mediation yields winter energy corridor agreement

Hotspot calibration: 195/265 hits (74%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-14

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +0.91
EURUSD=X: z=+1.26; USDJPY=X: z=-0.64; CNY=X: z=-2.21
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+8.1%, XLV:+6.4%, XLK:+5.1%, XLP:+3.0%, XLF:+3.0%, XLU:-2.6%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-4 Fed balance sheet 4w Δ +0.50
WALCL: 4w Δ +0.251%
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-14

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -11.07 | 3m -1.04 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.7% | 3m 29.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -23.2% | Max -23.2%
ENB
4.13 (assets: 30)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -11.07 | 3m -1.04 | 12m 2.45
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.7% | 3m 29.6% | 12m 35.5%
Drawdown
Current -23.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.13 (assets: 45)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (185d)126/28245% [39%-51%]+83.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/650% [19%-81%]-3.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.62 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (191d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1446d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1446d)317/68846% [42%-50%]+40.2%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/650% [19%-81%]-3.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.08 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.