The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-15 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘68%
TLT -2.25σ DOWN and TNX +1.90σ setting up for mean-reversion in firm long yields right now
2-day forecastYields likely to ease over next 2 sessions if no hot inflation surprise materializes and VIX stays below 15; if 10Y breaks below 4.60 then expect further reversion toward 4.55.
Watch
  • 10Y yield <4.60%
  • 2s/10s spread narrows >5bp
  • VIX remains <15
26% [n=61] Brier 0.319
Financial↘62%
SPY +2.20σ UP, NVDA +2.06σ UP and bullish streak at 7 days with contracting breadth setting up for near-term pause right now
2-day forecastEquities likely to see mild mean reversion over next 2 sessions if breadth momentum stays at -3; if SPY fails to hold 775 and VIX spikes >15 then expect pullback toward 768.
Watch
  • SPY fails below 775
  • VIX >15
  • IWM underperforms NDX by >0.5%
30% [n=61] Brier 0.294
Commodity↗58%
XLE +2.14σ UP, lithium/uranium/gold firm on 30d returns with stable geo transmission setting up for reflation continuation right now
2-day forecastCommodities expected to hold firm or edge higher over next 2 sessions if crude stays above 82 and no supply disruption news; if China demand proxy prints positive then upside to broad index >18.
Watch
  • crude >82.50
  • broad commodity index >18.10
  • no Persian Gulf escalation
36% [n=61] Brier 0.292
Currency→54%
EUR/USD +0.4% 1d with mixed commodity currencies and firm rate differentials setting up for range trading right now
2-day forecastFX pairs likely to remain range-bound over next 2 sessions absent rate differential shift; if 10Y eases below 4.60 then EUR/USD expected to test 1.165.
Watch
  • 10Y <4.60%
  • USD/JPY holds 159
  • DXY stable <98
23% [n=61] Brier 0.317
Crypto↗53%
BTC -0.7% 1d lagging equities with low vol and stable ETF flows setting up for potential stabilization right now
2-day forecastCrypto likely to stabilize or see mild catch-up over next 2 sessions if equity vol stays suppressed; if BTC holds above 62500 with positive funding rates then upside toward 64000.
Watch
  • BTC >62500
  • VIX <15
  • ETF flows >0
26% [n=61] Brier 0.261

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TLT -2.25σ DOWN and TNX +1.90σ setting up for mean-reversion in firm long yields right now
Financial↘
SPY +2.20σ UP, NVDA +2.06σ UP and bullish streak at 7 days with contracting breadth setting up for near-term pause right now
Commodity↗
XLE +2.14σ UP, lithium/uranium/gold firm on 30d returns with stable geo transmission setting up for reflation continuation right now
Currency→
EUR/USD +0.4% 1d with mixed commodity currencies and firm rate differentials setting up for range trading right now
Crypto↗
BTC -0.7% 1d lagging equities with low vol and stable ETF flows setting up for potential stabilization right now

Signals

0 Critical
5 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
TLT equity $82.04 $82.04 -2.25σ 252d alert SHORT
SPY equity $777.98 $776.34 +2.20σ 60d alert LONG
XLE equity $61.91 $61.91 +2.14σ 60d alert LONG
IWM equity $305.09 $305.09 +2.12σ 30d alert LONG
NVDA equity $224.87 $225.16 +2.06σ 252d alert LONG
^TNX equity $4.70 $4.70 +1.90σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT * equity $500.28 $495.40 +1.86σ 60d watch LONG
^VIX * equity $14.25 $14.25 -1.62σ 60d watch SHORT
QQQ equity $731.07 $731.07 +1.54σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.57 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.18 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$1,157 · 4d
exposure $40,881 · 3 positions · σ 13.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$117.75
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 18.2% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.34

Geopolitical Risk

0.47 stable

Multiple state tensions persist across the Persian Gulf, Eastern Europe, and South China Sea but exhibit low transmission coefficients to core pricing channels; energy markets show resilience via ample inventories and open diplomatic channels while risk assets price limited near-term contagion.

Persian Gulf medium

Iran-Israel shadow conflict with reported strikes near energy transit routes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Stalled Russia-Ukraine talks amid seasonal natgas storage concerns

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
South China Sea low

Naval incidents between China and Philippines with U.S. presence

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPY
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk medium high

Coordinated cyber-physical attacks on European natgas pipelines

Invalidate if: EU-mediated talks yield Russian commitment to maintain baseline winter flows

Hotspot calibration: 197/268 hits (74%), Brier 0.231 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-15

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +0.71
EURUSD=X: z=+1.34; USDJPY=X: z=-0.53; CNY=X: z=-1.33
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-4 AI proxy breadth (above 50DMA) +1.00
4/5 above; NVDA:+ AMD:+ TSM:+ GOOGL:- MSFT:+
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-4 Fed balance sheet 4w Δ +0.50
WALCL: 4w Δ +0.251%
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-15

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.54 | 3m -1.80 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.1% | 3m 27.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -23.2%
ENB
4.30 (assets: 30)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.54 | 3m -1.80 | 12m 2.36
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.1% | 3m 27.2% | 12m 35.1%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.30 (assets: 45)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (186d)126/28245% [39%-51%]+84.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/560% [23%-88%]-0.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.63 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (192d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Crypto OOS summary unavailable

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (192d)201/42447% [43%-52%]+58.2%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/560% [23%-88%]-0.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.59 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.