The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-16 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗54%
TNX +1.90σ UP and TLT -2.25σ DOWN at statistical extremes with normal curve and stable geo risk setting up for firm rates persistence
2-day forecastYields likely to remain firm or edge higher over next 2 sessions if consumer sentiment holds above 49 and no de-escalation leaks from hotspots; if 10Y stays above 4.65 then expect limited TLT rebound.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks 4.75
  • MOVE index >75
  • 2s/10s spread holds >35bp
26% [n=61] Brier 0.319
Financial↗57%
SPY +2.20σ UP, NVDA +2.05σ UP and IWM +2.12σ UP in extended rally with VIX -1.62σ and bullish bias streak setting up for selective AI/small-cap continuation
2-day forecastEquities likely to extend selective gains over next 2 sessions if VIX stays below 15 and breadth momentum does not fall below -6; NVDA and IWM expected to lead if no hot CPI surprise.
Watch
  • VIX <14.5
  • NVDA holds 220
  • IWM outperforms SPY by 0.5%
30% [n=61] Brier 0.294
Commodity↗59%
Broad commodities +3.8% 5d with uranium/gold/lithium in extended rally and stable geo transmission setting up for reflation persistence
2-day forecastCommodity prices likely to consolidate gains but remain firm over next 2 sessions if crude holds above 81 and China demand signals stay positive; expect gold to test higher if real yields do not spike.
Watch
  • Crude >81.5
  • Gold >4350
  • Copper holds above 6.50
36% [n=61] Brier 0.292
Currency→53%
EUR/USD at 1.16 with USD/JPY near 159.4 amid firm rates, commodity strength and stable geo setting up for mixed FX without directional break
2-day forecastDollar expected to stay mixed over next 2 sessions with commodity currencies supported; if 10Y rises above 4.75 then USD/JPY likely to test 160 while EUR/USD consolidates.
Watch
  • DXY range 100-102
  • AUD/USD >0.705
  • Rate differential stable
23% [n=61] Brier 0.317
Crypto→51%
BTC -1.8% 30d lagging SPY/NVDA extended rally with low vol and bullish equity bias setting up for potential stabilization but not leadership
2-day forecastCrypto likely to follow equity direction with muted moves over next 2 sessions if ETF flows stay neutral and dominance does not shift; BTC expected to hold 62000 support unless VIX spikes.
Watch
  • BTC >63500
  • ETH/BTC >0.045
  • Funding rate neutral
26% [n=61] Brier 0.261

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
TNX +1.90σ UP and TLT -2.25σ DOWN at statistical extremes with normal curve and stable geo risk setting up for firm rates persistence
Financial↗
SPY +2.20σ UP, NVDA +2.05σ UP and IWM +2.12σ UP in extended rally with VIX -1.62σ and bullish bias streak setting up for selective AI/small-cap continuation
Commodity↗
Broad commodities +3.8% 5d with uranium/gold/lithium in extended rally and stable geo transmission setting up for reflation persistence
Currency→
EUR/USD at 1.16 with USD/JPY near 159.4 amid firm rates, commodity strength and stable geo setting up for mixed FX without directional break
Crypto→
BTC -1.8% 30d lagging SPY/NVDA extended rally with low vol and bullish equity bias setting up for potential stabilization but not leadership

Signals

0 Critical
5 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
TLT equity $82.04 $82.04 -2.25σ 252d alert SHORT
SPY equity $777.98 $776.34 +2.20σ 60d alert LONG
XLE equity $61.91 $61.91 +2.14σ 60d alert LONG
IWM equity $305.09 $305.09 +2.12σ 30d alert LONG
NVDA equity $224.87 $225.16 +2.05σ 252d alert LONG
^TNX equity $4.70 $4.70 +1.90σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT equity $500.28 $495.40 +1.86σ 60d watch LONG
^VIX equity $14.25 $14.25 -1.62σ 60d watch SHORT
QQQ equity $731.07 $731.07 +1.53σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.37 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.18 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$1,157 · 4d
exposure $40,881 · 3 positions · σ 13.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$117.75
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 17.1% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.54

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Transmission from Ukraine stalemate and Middle East rhetoric to commodities is muted by high inventories and diplomatic backchannels; primary priced risk is second-order European rates volatility and safe-haven FX flows if winter energy disruptions materialize. Independent tape confirmation (oil vol term structure flattening, modest gold skew) supports contained cascade over next 7-30 days.

Middle East medium

Iran nuclear threshold rhetoric and Israeli strike signaling

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Ukraine front-line attrition with winter gas transit risks

natgasrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 30d
Indo-Pacific low

Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan amid US carrier presence

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 14d
Top tail risk low severe

Strait of Hormuz disruption from direct Iran-Israel exchange

Invalidate if: Successful US-mediated talks or verifiable Iranian enrichment freeze announced, triggering rapid oil curve flattening and risk-asset rebound

Hotspot calibration: 200/273 hits (73%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-16

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +0.71
EURUSD=X: z=+1.34; USDJPY=X: z=-0.53; CNY=X: z=-1.33
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-4 AI proxy breadth (above 50DMA) +1.00
4/5 above; NVDA:+ AMD:+ TSM:+ GOOGL:- MSFT:+
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-4 Fed balance sheet 4w Δ +0.50
WALCL: 4w Δ +0.251%
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-16

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.80 | 3m -1.83 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.8% | 3m 27.1% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -22.4% | Max -23.2%
ENB
4.33 (assets: 30)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.80 | 3m -1.83 | 12m 2.35
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.8% | 3m 27.1% | 12m 35.1%
Drawdown
Current -22.4% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.33 (assets: 45)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (186d)130/28546% [40%-51%]+86.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/560% [23%-88%]+1.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.64 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (193d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Crypto OOS summary unavailable

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (193d)205/42748% [43%-53%]+59.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/560% [23%-88%]+1.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.59 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.