The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-17 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
Yields at ALERT extremes (TNX +1.89σ, TLT -2.24σ) with normal curve and stable geo-risk transmission
2-day forecast10Y yields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if real-yield trajectory eases and no hot CPI surprise, targeting sub-4.6%
Watch
  • 10Y yield drops below 4.60
  • 2s/10s spread widens >5bp
  • MOVE index falls below 68
27% [n=62] Brier 0.317
Financial↘62%
Equities at ALERT extremes (SPY +2.20σ, NVDA +2.04σ, IWM +2.12σ) amid 7-day BULLISH_BIAS streak and contracting breadth
2-day forecastSPY and NVDA likely to consolidate or revert over next 2 sessions if dispersion stays low and VIX fails to remain suppressed
Watch
  • SP500 closes below 770
  • VIX rises above 15.5
  • IWM underperforms SPY by >0.5%
29% [n=62] Brier 0.295
Commodity↗58%
Reflation signals active (gold +11.1% 30d, copper +7.7% 30d, XLE +2.14σ) with contained geo transmission through energy
2-day forecastBroad commodities expected to stabilize with mild upside bias over next 2 sessions if USD remains soft and no shipping-lane escalation
Watch
  • Gold holds above 4450
  • Crude oil above 82.00
  • Copper above 6.60
37% [n=62] Brier 0.290
Currency↗55%
Commodity currencies firm (AUDUSD +0.9%) on mild USD softening amid rate-differential stability and reflation
2-day forecastEURUSD and AUDUSD likely to edge higher over next 2 sessions if equity consolidation remains orderly and yields ease
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.165
  • USDJPY falls below 158.50
  • DXY below 100
24% [n=62] Brier 0.316
Crypto→54%
BTC rangebound near 63600 with minimal 30d change and low correlation to equity ALERT signals
2-day forecastBTC expected to trade neutral over next 2 sessions unless equity reversion triggers funding-rate shift or ETF flow reversal
Watch
  • BTC holds above 63000
  • BTC dominance stable
  • Perpetual funding rate near zero
26% [n=62] Brier 0.260

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Yields at ALERT extremes (TNX +1.89σ, TLT -2.24σ) with normal curve and stable geo-risk transmission
Financial↘
Equities at ALERT extremes (SPY +2.20σ, NVDA +2.04σ, IWM +2.12σ) amid 7-day BULLISH_BIAS streak and contracting breadth
Commodity↗
Reflation signals active (gold +11.1% 30d, copper +7.7% 30d, XLE +2.14σ) with contained geo transmission through energy
Currency↗
Commodity currencies firm (AUDUSD +0.9%) on mild USD softening amid rate-differential stability and reflation
Crypto→
BTC rangebound near 63600 with minimal 30d change and low correlation to equity ALERT signals

Signals

0 Critical
5 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
TLT equity $82.04 $82.04 -2.24σ 252d alert SHORT
SPY equity $777.98 $776.34 +2.20σ 60d alert LONG
XLE equity $61.91 $61.91 +2.14σ 60d alert LONG
IWM * equity $305.09 $305.09 +2.12σ 30d alert LONG
NVDA * equity $224.87 $225.16 +2.04σ 252d alert LONG
^TNX equity $4.70 $4.70 +1.89σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT equity $500.28 $495.40 +1.86σ 60d watch LONG
^VIX equity $14.25 $14.25 -1.62σ 60d watch SHORT
QQQ equity $731.07 $731.07 +1.53σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.33 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.18 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$1,157 · 4d
exposure $40,881 · 3 positions · σ 13.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$55.45
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 15.6% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.58

Geopolitical Risk

0.47 stable

Contained state tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe transmit primarily through energy supply channels while Indo-Pacific posturing weighs on risk assets and safe-haven FX; independent market signals show limited cascade so far, with explicit de-escalation equilibria priced via diplomatic channels.

Middle East medium

Iran proxy harassment of Gulf shipping lanes amid stalled nuclear talks

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russian threats to redirect natgas flows ahead of European winter

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 25d
Indo-Pacific medium

Chinese naval exercises near Taiwan Strait with US carrier presence

risk_assetsfx
ES=F, USDJPY=X
horizon: 12d
Top tail risk medium high

Major cyber incident attributed to state actor targeting European LNG terminals

Invalidate if: Public confirmation of NATO-Russia energy transit renewal talks or observable decline in regional cyber activity

Hotspot calibration: 202/276 hits (73%), Brier 0.235 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-17

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +0.81
EURUSD=X: z=+1.52; USDJPY=X: z=-0.55; CNY=X: z=-1.57
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-4 AI proxy breadth (above 50DMA) +1.00
4/5 above; NVDA:+ AMD:+ TSM:+ GOOGL:- MSFT:+
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
0/3 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +0.46
credit_hy: latest=2.71, z=-0.69
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-17

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.80 | 3m -1.83 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.8% | 3m 27.1% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -22.4% | Max -23.2%
ENB
4.33 (assets: 30)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.80 | 3m -1.83 | 12m 2.35
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.8% | 3m 27.1% | 12m 35.1%
Drawdown
Current -22.4% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.33 (assets: 45)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (186d)130/28546% [40%-51%]+86.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/4100% [51%-100%]+3.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.64 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (194d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Crypto OOS summary unavailable

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (194d)205/42748% [43%-53%]+59.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/4100% [51%-100%]+3.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.59 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.