The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-18 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
Yields at ALERT levels (+1.89σ TNX, TLT -2.24σ) with normal curve and stable geopolitical risk score of 0.38
2-day forecastYields likely to mean revert lower over the next 2 sessions if upcoming data prints do not surprise to the upside and de-escalation signals persist, expecting 10y to test below 4.6%
Watch
  • 10Y yield fails to break above 4.8%
  • VIX remains suppressed below 17
  • No hot economic surprise in sentiment or CPI proxies
26% [n=65] Brier 0.319
Financial↘62%
Major equity indices at 2σ+ ALERT with SPY +2.20σ, NVDA +2.04σ and bullish bias streak of 7 days but weekly direction change -13pp
2-day forecastEquities likely to mean revert with pullback over next 2 sessions as breadth momentum stays negative, if VIX mean reverts higher from -1.62σ then SPY expected 0.8-1.2% lower
Watch
  • SPY holds above +2σ extension
  • Breadth momentum stays below -3
  • VIX spikes above 17
28% [n=65] Brier 0.297
Commodity→58%
Grains surging (corn +7.8% 5d) while energy mixed and gold elevated +10.9% 30d in stable geo regime with contained transmission
2-day forecastCommodity prices expected to stabilize near current levels over next 2 sessions absent fresh supply news, with gold likely to hold if USD does not surge and crude tests $83-85 range
Watch
  • Crude oil holds above $83
  • Gold remains above $4400
  • No Middle East escalation signals
35% [n=65] Brier 0.292
Currency↗57%
Commodity currencies mildly positive with limited moves across majors amid rate differential stability and low geo risk
2-day forecastUSD likely to strengthen modestly over the next 2 sessions if yields remain elevated post any data prints, leading to pressure on AUDUSD and CADUSD unless risk assets extend
Watch
  • USDJPY breaks above 160
  • DXY rises above 102.5
  • AUDUSD fails to hold above 0.71
28% [n=65] Brier 0.313
Crypto↘56%
Bitcoin near $64k with low 30d volatility +0.7% and positive correlation to AI proxies like NVDA at +2.04σ
2-day forecastCrypto likely to track any equity mean reversion lower over next 2 sessions if risk sentiment fades, with BTC expected to test toward $62000-$63000 on VIX expansion above 17
Watch
  • BTC breaks below 64000
  • ETH/BTC dominance shifts lower
  • Equity indices fail to hold 2σ levels
26% [n=65] Brier 0.260

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Yields at ALERT levels (+1.89σ TNX, TLT -2.24σ) with normal curve and stable geopolitical risk score of 0.38
Financial↘
Major equity indices at 2σ+ ALERT with SPY +2.20σ, NVDA +2.04σ and bullish bias streak of 7 days but weekly direction change -13pp
Commodity→
Grains surging (corn +7.8% 5d) while energy mixed and gold elevated +10.9% 30d in stable geo regime with contained transmission
Currency↗
Commodity currencies mildly positive with limited moves across majors amid rate differential stability and low geo risk
Crypto↘
Bitcoin near $64k with low 30d volatility +0.7% and positive correlation to AI proxies like NVDA at +2.04σ

Signals

0 Critical
5 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
TLT * equity $82.04 $82.04 -2.24σ 252d alert SHORT
SPY * equity $777.98 $776.34 +2.20σ 60d alert LONG
XLE * equity $61.90 $61.91 +2.14σ 60d alert LONG
IWM equity $303.83 $305.09 +2.12σ 30d alert LONG
NVDA equity $224.87 $225.16 +2.04σ 252d alert LONG
^TNX * equity $4.70 $4.70 +1.89σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT equity $500.28 $495.40 +1.86σ 60d watch LONG
^VIX equity $14.25 $14.25 -1.62σ 60d watch SHORT
QQQ * equity $731.07 $731.07 +1.53σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.32 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$1,950 · 4d
exposure $68,904 · 5 positions · σ 13.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$534.93
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 17.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.59

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Middle East militia activity and Ukraine stalemate show contained transmission primarily into oil and European natgas channels, with no orthogonal confirmation from physical flows or vol skews. Reflexive de-escalation incentives for all major actors dominate, keeping second-order effects on FX and risk assets muted over 7-30 days.

Middle East medium

Houthi and Shia militia probes in Red Sea and Iraq testing fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 21d
Eastern Europe high

Frozen Ukraine front lines with Russian winter energy signaling but no major breakthroughs

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 14d
Indo-Pacific low

Routine Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan with no kinetic escalation

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz for 5+ days

Invalidate if: Backchannel US-Iran diplomacy or mutual restraint statements trigger observable shipping normalization and oil curve flattening

Hotspot calibration: 206/279 hits (74%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-18

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +0.78
EURUSD=X: z=+1.19; USDJPY=X: z=-0.30; CNY=X: z=-2.02
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-4 AI proxy breadth (above 50DMA) +1.00
4/5 above; NVDA:+ AMD:+ TSM:+ GOOGL:- MSFT:+
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +0.85
credit_hy: latest=2.67, z=-1.28
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-18

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -6.33 | 3m -2.46 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 16.2% | 3m 25.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -22.0% | Max -23.2%
ENB
4.44 (assets: 30)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -6.33 | 3m -2.46 | 12m 2.27
Rolling Volatility
1m 16.2% | 3m 25.9% | 12m 34.9%
Drawdown
Current -22.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.44 (assets: 45)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (188d)130/28546% [40%-51%]+86.2%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/333% [6%-79%]-4.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.64 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (195d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Crypto OOS summary unavailable

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (195d)205/42748% [43%-53%]+59.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/333% [6%-79%]-4.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.59 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.