The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-19 04:37 · v1.0
WIDE CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘68%
TNX +1.90σ and TLT -2.42σ with normal curve and geo risk score 0.52 adding premium but no critical sigma
2-day forecastYields likely to mean-revert lower over next 2 sessions if no escalation exceeds de-escalation equilibria priced at 45%, with trigger if 10Y stays below 4.80 then expect reversion.
Watch
  • 10Y yield <4.65%
  • No new Russia natgas restrictions
  • VIX remains below 17
27% [n=66] Brier 0.316
Financial↘63%
SPY/NVDA/IWM/XLE at WATCH/ALERT upside sigma with 7-day bullish bias streak but -13pp direction change and contracting breadth
2-day forecastExpect mean reversion lower in equities over next 2 sessions if VIX rises above 16.5 or breadth momentum stays below -5, consistent with 77% base rate.
Watch
  • VIX >16.5
  • SPY <755
  • XLE fails to hold +2.5σ
29% [n=66] Brier 0.295
Commodity↗54%
Energy and grains elevated on Middle East/Eastern Europe hotspots transmitting per GMT1-2 with crude +4.3% 5d and XLE +2.59σ
2-day forecastCommodities likely to extend higher over next 2 sessions if geo risk score rises above 0.55 or supply signals emerge, otherwise capped by mean reversion.
Watch
  • Crude >86.00
  • Natgas >2.90
  • Red Sea disruption reports
35% [n=66] Brier 0.293
Currency→57%
Mild EURUSD gains and USD softness amid rate differentials and limited safe-haven cascade from escalating geo regime
2-day forecastExpect range-bound trading to slight USD weakness over next 2 sessions if equities revert without vol spike, triggered by real-yield compression.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.165
  • USDJPY <158.50
  • 10Y real yields -5bp
27% [n=66] Brier 0.313
Crypto↘52%
BTC near 64.5k with minimal sigma, low 30d return and correlation to equity watch levels plus AI proxy weakness
2-day forecastCrypto likely to follow any equity mean reversion lower over next 2 sessions unless ETF flows exceed 500M, with BTC below 63k as key level.
Watch
  • BTC <63000
  • Equity SPY <760
  • Funding rate turns negative
27% [n=66] Brier 0.260

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX +1.90σ and TLT -2.42σ with normal curve and geo risk score 0.52 adding premium but no critical sigma
Financial↘
SPY/NVDA/IWM/XLE at WATCH/ALERT upside sigma with 7-day bullish bias streak but -13pp direction change and contracting breadth
Commodity↗
Energy and grains elevated on Middle East/Eastern Europe hotspots transmitting per GMT1-2 with crude +4.3% 5d and XLE +2.59σ
Currency→
Mild EURUSD gains and USD softness amid rate differentials and limited safe-haven cascade from escalating geo regime
Crypto↘
BTC near 64.5k with minimal sigma, low 30d return and correlation to equity watch levels plus AI proxy weakness

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
XLE equity $61.90 $63.68 +2.59σ 60d alert LONG
TLT equity $81.66 $81.66 -2.42σ 252d alert SHORT
^TNX equity $4.71 $4.71 +1.90σ 252d watch LONG
SPY equity $777.98 $767.45 +1.71σ 252d watch LONG
NVDA equity $219.74 $219.74 +1.64σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $303.10 $300.23 +1.52σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT equity $500.28 $479.10 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.32 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$1,869 · 4d
exposure $66,811 · 4 positions · σ 13.5% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$281.92
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 17.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.60

Geopolitical Risk

0.52 escalating

Middle East proxy clashes and Russian energy signaling transmit primarily to oil and natgas curves with secondary safe-haven FX flows; Indo-Pacific posturing adds risk-asset pressure, yet independent vol surfaces and freight data show limited cascade so far, with explicit de-escalation equilibria priced at 40-55% across channels.

Middle East medium

Iranian proxies escalate Red Sea and Lebanese border actions amid Israeli responses

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia implements phased natgas export restrictions tied to Ukraine battlefield developments

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 10d
Indo-Pacific medium

Chinese naval drills intensify near Taiwan Strait with reciprocal US carrier presence

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, SPX
horizon: 21d
Top tail risk medium high

Full Russian cutoff of European natgas combined with Ukrainian infrastructure strikes

Invalidate if: De-escalation via renewed Minsk-style negotiations or EU securing alternative LNG cargoes at scale

Hotspot calibration: 212/285 hits (74%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-19

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +0.91
EURUSD=X: z=+1.43; USDJPY=X: z=-0.49; CNY=X: z=-2.19
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+9.9%, XLV:+6.6%, XLK:+5.6%, XLF:+3.2%, XLP:+0.8%, XLU:-2.0%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/3 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.65
real_yield_10y: latest=2.44, z=+0.98
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-19

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.24 | 3m -3.28 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 25.4% | 3m 28.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -29.9% | Max -29.9%
ENB
4.50 (assets: 31)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.24 | 3m -3.28 | 12m 2.20
Rolling Volatility
1m 25.4% | 3m 28.6% | 12m 35.0%
Drawdown
Current -29.9% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.50 (assets: 46)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (190d)132/29245% [40%-51%]+80.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)5/1050% [24%-76%]-3.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.61 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (196d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Crypto OOS summary unavailable

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (196d)207/43448% [43%-52%]+56.2%Longs only
Recent (7d)5/1050% [24%-76%]-3.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.57 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.