The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-21 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘61%
TNX at +1.80σ WATCH with normal curve and geo risk 0.38 sets mean-reversion configuration in yields
2-day forecastYields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if economic data prints remain contained and VIX stays below 17, targeting 10Y sub-4.65 on any stabilization.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks below 4.60
  • 2s/10s spread widens >5bp
  • MOVE index falls below 72
28% [n=68] Brier 0.315
Financial↘68%
SPY +1.53σ and XLE +2.32σ ALERT against -7 breadth momentum and 7-day bullish streak sets mean-reversion after extension
2-day forecastEquities likely to pull back over next 2 sessions if breadth momentum remains below -5, with SPY expected to test toward 755-758 on any VIX expansion above 16.5.
Watch
  • SPY closes below 758
  • XLE declines >2%
  • breadth momentum stays < -5 for second day
29% [n=68] Brier 0.294
Commodity→57%
Gold/silver +15-21% 30d and corn momentum versus crude softening and stable supply risks sets selective consolidation
2-day forecastCommodities likely to consolidate with neutral net bias over next 2 sessions if geo hotspots show no escalation and USD remains soft, with gold holding range unless risk score rises.
Watch
  • Gold holds above 4600
  • Crude oil stays below 88
  • Corn gains >3% on supply news
35% [n=68] Brier 0.291
Currency↘56%
Mild USD softening with EURUSD/AUDUSD gains on rate differentials and low-dispersion stable regime
2-day forecastUSD likely to weaken further or stabilize soft over next 2 sessions if equities avoid sharp reversion and risk score stays below 0.45, with EURUSD targeting 1.175.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.175
  • USDJPY holds below 159
  • DXY breaks below current lows
28% [n=68] Brier 0.312
Crypto↗74%
BTC LONG block (since 2026-08-06) with +0.914 20d USDC-vol corr and no boundary today sets mechanical persistence
2-day forecastLONG state expected to persist unchanged over next 2 sessions (no boundary), with BTC likely to hold or extend if correlation remains >0.85.
Watch
  • 20d corr stays >0.8
  • BTC holds above 76000
  • Next boundary shows no sign flip
26% [n=68] Brier 0.261

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX at +1.80σ WATCH with normal curve and geo risk 0.38 sets mean-reversion configuration in yields
Financial↘
SPY +1.53σ and XLE +2.32σ ALERT against -7 breadth momentum and 7-day bullish streak sets mean-reversion after extension
Commodity→
Gold/silver +15-21% 30d and corn momentum versus crude softening and stable supply risks sets selective consolidation
Currency↘
Mild USD softening with EURUSD/AUDUSD gains on rate differentials and low-dispersion stable regime
Crypto↗
BTC LONG block (since 2026-08-06) with +0.914 20d USDC-vol corr and no boundary today sets mechanical persistence

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
XLE equity $61.90 $63.75 +2.32σ 60d alert LONG
TLT * equity $82.34 $82.34 -1.90σ 252d watch SHORT
^TNX equity $4.70 $4.70 +1.80σ 252d watch LONG
SPY equity $762.60 $762.60 +1.53σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $303.05 $300.15 — — held HELD
MSFT equity $500.28 $481.65 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.48 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.21 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$1,361 · 4d
exposure $47,985 · 3 positions · σ 13.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$97.45
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 34.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.43

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Contained state tensions in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and East Asia show limited market transmission via energy and safe-haven channels; diversified supply and diplomatic signaling keep cascades narrow with de-escalation equilibria probable.

Persian Gulf medium

Iranian proxy incidents targeting commercial shipping amid nuclear talks impasse

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russian strikes on Ukrainian power infrastructure raising European winter supply risks

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 25d
Taiwan Strait medium

PLA increased air and naval activity paired with US defensive arms package

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 12d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct Israel-Iran missile exchange closing Strait of Hormuz for 5+ days

Invalidate if: Saudi-brokered indirect talks produce verifiable de-escalation timeline or Brent 1M implied vol collapses below 22%

Hotspot calibration: 216/291 hits (74%), Brier 0.233 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-21

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+2.13; USDJPY=X: z=-0.57; CNY=X: z=-2.73
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLV (cyclical-led); XLV:+8.1%, XLE:+7.7%, XLF:+1.6%, XLK:+1.6%, XLP:+1.1%, XLU:-4.7%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score +1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.35, z=-2.74
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-21

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.60 | 3m -3.01 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 12.8% | 3m 25.3% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -25.4% | Max -25.4%
ENB
4.79 (assets: 31)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 45% | High-Vol 5% | Trend 47% | Mean-Rev 3%
Current: trend (47%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.60 | 3m -3.01 | 12m 2.42
Rolling Volatility
1m 12.8% | 3m 25.3% | 12m 34.3%
Drawdown
Current -25.4% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.79 (assets: 46)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 47% | Mean-Rev 3%
Current: trend (47%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (191d)131/30044% [38%-49%]+69.5%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/1217% [5%-45%]-10.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.55 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (198d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (198d)206/44247% [42%-51%]+49.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/1217% [5%-45%]-10.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.53 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.