The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-23 04:38 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘62%
TNX at +1.98σ above 30d mean with +59bp tightening spread sets up for mean-reversion in long-end yields
2-day forecastYields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if economic data does not surprise to upside, anchoring to base rate mean reversion of 77% for 2σ+ moves
Watch
  • 10Y fails to break above 4.80
  • 2s10s spread widens more than 4bp
  • MOVE index falls below 72
28% [n=68] Brier 0.315
Financial↘57%
SPY at +1.59σ WATCH and XLE at +2.14σ ALERT with breadth momentum -8 sets up mild mean reversion amid sector rotation
2-day forecastIndices likely to consolidate or see mild pullback over next 2 sessions if breadth does not improve and rotation from tech continues
Watch
  • SPX closes below 762
  • XLE underperforms SPY by 0.5%
  • VIX rises above 16.5
29% [n=68] Brier 0.294
Commodity↗60%
Strategic commodities at elevated levels with lithium +22.5% 30d and copper +1.50σ WATCH set up for continuation in reflation
2-day forecastCommodity prices expected to firm over next 2 sessions if USD softens further and no supply disruption news emerges
Watch
  • Gold holds above 4600
  • Lithium stays above 140
  • Crude oil remains above 85
35% [n=68] Brier 0.291
Currency↘55%
Soft-dollar bias with EURUSD +2.3% 30d and USDJPY -2.5% 30d sets up for modest USD weakness supporting commodities
2-day forecastUSD likely to weaken modestly over next 2 sessions versus EUR and commodity FX if rate differentials remain stable
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.175
  • USDJPY fails to hold 160
  • USDCNY declines below 6.70
28% [n=68] Brier 0.312
Crypto↗75%
BTC LONG block active since 2026-08-08 with +0.857 20d USDC-vol correlation confirms mechanical risk-on persistence
2-day forecastLONG state expected to persist over next 2 sessions with no block boundary; correlation must stay positive to avoid future flip
Watch
  • 20d correlation remains above 0
  • BTC holds above 76000
  • VIX stays below 18
26% [n=68] Brier 0.261

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX at +1.98σ above 30d mean with +59bp tightening spread sets up for mean-reversion in long-end yields
Financial↘
SPY at +1.59σ WATCH and XLE at +2.14σ ALERT with breadth momentum -8 sets up mild mean reversion amid sector rotation
Commodity↗
Strategic commodities at elevated levels with lithium +22.5% 30d and copper +1.50σ WATCH set up for continuation in reflation
Currency↘
Soft-dollar bias with EURUSD +2.3% 30d and USDJPY -2.5% 30d sets up for modest USD weakness supporting commodities
Crypto↗
BTC LONG block active since 2026-08-08 with +0.857 20d USDC-vol correlation confirms mechanical risk-on persistence

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
XLE equity $61.90 $63.64 +2.14σ 60d alert LONG
^TNX equity $4.74 $4.74 +1.98σ 252d watch LONG
SPY equity $765.72 $765.72 +1.59σ 252d watch LONG
HG=F * equity $6.59 $6.59 +1.50σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $303.05 $299.96 — — held HELD
MSFT equity $500.28 $483.24 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.50 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.22 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$1,275 · 4d
exposure $47,985 · 3 positions · σ 12.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$77.62
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 39.1% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.41

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Contained state tensions transmit modestly through energy and safe-haven channels with no dominant cascade confirmed by orthogonal market data; de-escalation equilibria via multilateral diplomacy remain the heavier-weighted path given reflexive actor incentives and subdued vol surfaces.

Middle East medium

Intermittent proxy engagements by Iran-backed groups targeting Red Sea shipping and Israeli borders

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, SPY
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Stalemate in Ukraine with periodic infrastructure strikes and European energy security rhetoric

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
East Asia medium

Elevated Chinese patrols in Taiwan Strait paired with US-Japan alliance signaling

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, QQQ
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

Coordinated attack on key European LNG import terminals

Invalidate if: Evidence of active NATO-Russia backchannels yielding incremental energy-supply agreements

Hotspot calibration: 222/299 hits (74%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-23

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow +1 risk-on
3/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth +1.00
AUDUSD=X: +2.98%; CADUSD=X: +2.33%; NZDUSD=X: +3.54%; BRLUSD=X: -0.77%
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLV (cyclical-led); XLV:+8.2%, XLE:+7.2%, XLP:+3.3%, XLF:+3.0%, XLK:+2.7%, XLU:-7.4%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score +1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.35, z=-2.32
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 0× Drift dampener — skip new entries — (CF+1, BS 0): h=20d GROSS −2.16% excess vs drift, t=−4.43
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-23

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.52 | 3m -4.82 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 8.0% | 3m 22.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -25.9% | Max -25.9%
ENB
4.75 (assets: 31)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 47% | High-Vol 3% | Trend 45% | Mean-Rev 5%
Current: low_vol (47%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.52 | 3m -4.82 | 12m 2.17
Rolling Volatility
1m 8.0% | 3m 22.5% | 12m 33.8%
Drawdown
Current -25.9% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.75 (assets: 46)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 45% | Mean-Rev 5%
Current: trend (45%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (193d)132/30244% [38%-49%]+67.5%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/1118% [5%-48%]-11.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.54 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (200d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (200d)207/44447% [42%-51%]+47.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/1118% [5%-48%]-11.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.53 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.