The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-25 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘68%
TNX +1.78σ and TLT -1.69σ in stable geo regime with normal curve sets up mean reversion from WATCH levels
2-day forecastYields likely to revert lower if no hot data or escalation; expect 10Y below 4.65% over next 2 sessions on mean-reversion from 2σ levels with stable risk score 0.48
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks below 4.65
  • 2s/10s spread widens >5bp
  • No surprise energy disruption from Eastern Europe
31% [n=72] Brier 0.309
Financial↗57%
SPY at +1.51σ with breadth momentum -10 and low dispersion 1.48 amid sector rotation away from AI
2-day forecastEquities expected to advance selectively into financials/healthcare if VIX stays below 16.5; SPY likely to hold or edge higher over next 2 sessions on rotation with bullish bias intact
Watch
  • VIX holds below 16.5
  • Financials sector outperforms tech by 0.5%
  • Dispersion index remains <1.6
32% [n=72] Brier 0.288
Commodity↗61%
Strategic commodities (gold/corn/lithium) showing 5d gains at WATCH momentum while crude gaps lower on contained geo
2-day forecastCommodity basket likely to firm if USD softens further; corn and gold expected to extend over next 2 sessions if no de-escalation breaks oil lower than 80
Watch
  • Gold holds above 4650
  • Corn momentum velocity >0.10
  • Crude does not break below 80
35% [n=72] Brier 0.288
Currency↘54%
Modest soft-dollar signals with EURUSD and commodity currencies firm against USDJPY weakening in stable regime
2-day forecastDollar likely to soften modestly if rate expectations do not spike; EURUSD expected to test higher over next 2 sessions if 2y-fed funds spread stays near +59bp
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.175
  • USDJPY fails to reclaim 160
  • Commodity currencies hold 5d gains
28% [n=72] Brier 0.311
Crypto↗62%
BTC LONG block (since 2026-08-10) with +0.906 20d USDC-vol corr and no boundary today
2-day forecastLONG state expected to persist with no block boundary in window; BTC likely to hold risk-on tone over next 2 sessions if correlation remains >0 and vol contained
Watch
  • 20d corr stays >0.80
  • BTC holds above 78000
  • VIX remains below 17
31% [n=72] Brier 0.251

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX +1.78σ and TLT -1.69σ in stable geo regime with normal curve sets up mean reversion from WATCH levels
Financial↗
SPY at +1.51σ with breadth momentum -10 and low dispersion 1.48 amid sector rotation away from AI
Commodity↗
Strategic commodities (gold/corn/lithium) showing 5d gains at WATCH momentum while crude gaps lower on contained geo
Currency↘
Modest soft-dollar signals with EURUSD and commodity currencies firm against USDJPY weakening in stable regime
Crypto↗
BTC LONG block (since 2026-08-10) with +0.906 20d USDC-vol corr and no boundary today

Signals

0 Critical
0 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
XLE equity $61.90 $63.11 +1.87σ 60d watch LONG
^TNX equity $4.70 $4.70 +1.78σ 252d watch LONG
TLT equity $82.56 $82.56 -1.69σ 252d watch SHORT
SPY equity $763.47 $763.47 +1.51σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $303.02 $299.70 — — held HELD
MSFT equity $500.28 $485.90 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.55 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.22 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$1,234 · 4d
exposure $46,073 · 3 positions · σ 12.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$293.99
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 38.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.36

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Middle East proxy clashes and Eastern European energy targeting show contained transmission to oil and natgas with muted second-order FX/rates effects; Indo-Pacific naval posturing adds risk-asset volatility but independent market signals indicate pre-pricing and active diplomatic backchannels limit near-term cascade.

Middle East medium

Iranian proxies intensify Red Sea shipping harassment while Israel conducts limited strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 12d
Eastern Europe high

Russian strikes on Ukrainian natgas transit routes ahead of winter demand season

natgasoil
NG=F, CL=F
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific low

Elevated Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan Strait coinciding with US carrier transit

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 18d
Top tail risk medium high

Coordinated state-linked cyber disruption to European LNG terminals during peak winter draw

Invalidate if: Absence of major incidents combined with public EU-Russia energy diplomacy breakthroughs

Hotspot calibration: 225/306 hits (74%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-25

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow +1 risk-on
3/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +0.87
EURUSD=X: z=+1.37; USDJPY=X: z=-0.08; CNY=X: z=-2.45
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLV (cyclical-led); XLV:+7.5%, XLE:+5.9%, XLP:+3.9%, XLF:+3.4%, XLK:+2.4%, XLU:-6.6%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +0.60
credit_hy: latest=2.70, z=-0.90
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 0× Drift dampener — skip new entries — (CF+1, BS 0): h=20d GROSS −2.16% excess vs drift, t=−4.43
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-25

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.52 | 3m -4.82 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 8.0% | 3m 22.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -25.9% | Max -25.9%
ENB
4.75 (assets: 31)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 47% | High-Vol 3% | Trend 45% | Mean-Rev 5%
Current: low_vol (47%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.52 | 3m -4.82 | 12m 2.17
Rolling Volatility
1m 8.0% | 3m 22.5% | 12m 33.8%
Drawdown
Current -25.9% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.75 (assets: 46)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 45% | Mean-Rev 5%
Current: trend (45%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (193d)132/30244% [38%-49%]+67.5%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/1020% [6%-51%]-6.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.54 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (202d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (202d)207/44447% [42%-51%]+47.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/1020% [6%-51%]-6.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.53 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.