The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-26 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘61%
Normal curve with tightening expectations and long-end yields elevated but off 2σ extremes sets up for mean-reversion stabilization
2-day forecastYields likely to ease modestly over next 2 sessions if data confirms no hot CPI surprise; expect 10y to test lower end of 4.5-4.7% range on soft sentiment prints
Watch
  • 10y yield breaks below 4.50%
  • 2s/10s spread widens >10bp
  • CPI print <0.2% MoM
32% [n=73] Brier 0.306
Financial↗56%
SPY at +1.56σ WATCH with contracting breadth but sector rotation toward financials/healthcare amid VIX 15.62 sets up for selective advance
2-day forecastFinancials and healthcare likely to outperform tech over next 2 sessions if VIX holds below 16.5; expect SPY to grind higher to 770 if breadth momentum does not worsen below -15
Watch
  • SPY holds above 760
  • financials ETF outperforms tech by >0.5%
  • VIX remains <16.5
33% [n=73] Brier 0.286
Commodity↗58%
Strategic reflation basket (corn/gold/uranium) showing strong 5-30d gains with stable geo transmission sets up for firmness vs USD
2-day forecastCorn and gold likely to consolidate recent gains over next 2 sessions if crude holds above 78; expect broad commodity index to stay firm unless China demand print disappoints
Watch
  • Corn holds above 520
  • Gold stays above 4650
  • Crude oil does not break below 78
34% [n=73] Brier 0.289
Currency↘55%
Modest USD softening with stable EURUSD and declining USDCNY amid rate differentials sets up for continuation of soft-dollar path
2-day forecastUSD likely to weaken modestly vs EUR and commodity currencies over next 2 sessions if risk sentiment holds; expect USDJPY to test lower if 10y yields ease further
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.175
  • USDCNY holds below 6.75
  • DXY fails to reclaim 92
27% [n=73] Brier 0.311
Crypto↗65%
Mechanical LONG block (BTC 20d USDC-vol corr +0.869, holding since 2026-08-11) with no boundary today sets up for persistence
2-day forecastLONG state expected to persist over next 2 sessions with no block boundary; correlation would need to flip negative at next 20-day boundary to shift to FLAT
Watch
  • BTC holds above 78000
  • 20d corr remains >0 at boundary
  • No block boundary fires
30% [n=73] Brier 0.254

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Normal curve with tightening expectations and long-end yields elevated but off 2σ extremes sets up for mean-reversion stabilization
Financial↗
SPY at +1.56σ WATCH with contracting breadth but sector rotation toward financials/healthcare amid VIX 15.62 sets up for selective advance
Commodity↗
Strategic reflation basket (corn/gold/uranium) showing strong 5-30d gains with stable geo transmission sets up for firmness vs USD
Currency↘
Modest USD softening with stable EURUSD and declining USDCNY amid rate differentials sets up for continuation of soft-dollar path
Crypto↗
Mechanical LONG block (BTC 20d USDC-vol corr +0.869, holding since 2026-08-11) with no boundary today sets up for persistence

Signals

0 Critical
0 Alert
2 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SPY * equity $765.91 $765.91 +1.56σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT * equity $500.28 $491.71 +1.53σ 252d watch LONG
XLE equity $61.90 $61.57 — — held HELD
IWM equity $302.99 $299.24 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.35 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.21 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$1,183 · 4d
exposure $44,160 · 3 positions · σ 12.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$497.02
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 39.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.56

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Middle East proxy conflicts and Russia-Ukraine attrition transmit modestly to oil and European natgas curves with limited second-order spill to broad risk assets; independent tape confirmation is weak and diplomatic signaling channels remain open, keeping overall transmission coefficient contained.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed proxy attacks on Red Sea shipping and Israeli border skirmishes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine war of attrition ahead of winter with threats to energy infrastructure

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 30d
Indo-Pacific low

Chinese military drills near Taiwan amid US freedom-of-navigation operations

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, SPX
horizon: 12d
Top tail risk medium high

Major Russian offensive triggering expanded NATO sanctions and energy export halts

Invalidate if: Renewed Black Sea grain corridor agreement and mutual troop pullbacks signaling de-escalation equilibrium

Hotspot calibration: 226/308 hits (73%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-26

Finance View — Three Sheets

Risk-on (moderate)
Cash Flow +1 risk-on
3/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth +0.92
AUDUSD=X: +2.82%; CADUSD=X: +1.85%; NZDUSD=X: +3.18%; BRLUSD=X: -0.47%
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLV (cyclical-led); XLV:+7.3%, XLE:+6.3%, XLK:+4.3%, XLF:+2.5%, XLP:+1.4%, XLU:-5.2%
Balance Sheet +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score +0.72
real_yield_10y: latest=2.38, z=-1.08
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 2× Drift amplifier — (CF+1, BS+1): h=20d GROSS +1.58% excess vs drift, t=+3.42
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-26

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.91 | 3m -4.68 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 7.9% | 3m 21.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -27.0% | Max -27.0%
ENB
4.80 (assets: 31)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 47% | High-Vol 3% | Trend 45% | Mean-Rev 5%
Current: low_vol (47%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.91 | 3m -4.68 | 12m 1.93
Rolling Volatility
1m 7.9% | 3m 21.9% | 12m 33.3%
Drawdown
Current -27.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.80 (assets: 46)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 45% | Mean-Rev 5%
Current: trend (45%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (196d)131/30443% [38%-49%]+65.5%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/911% [2%-44%]-10.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.53 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (203d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (203d)206/44646% [42%-51%]+46.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/911% [2%-44%]-10.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.52 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.