The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-27 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates→65%
Normal curve (+38bp) and tightening priced (+59bp 2y-fed funds) set up for range-bound yields in stable geo regime
2-day forecastYields likely to remain neutral over next 2 sessions if 2s/10s spread holds above 30bp and no hot CPI surprise; expect stability unless rate expectations shift >10bp.
Watch
  • 2y-fed funds spread breaks below 40bp
  • 10y yield >4.8%
  • NFP >200k surprise
31% [n=74] Brier 0.308
Financial↗56%
SPY/MSFT/XLE at 1.55-1.65σ WATCH in 7-day BULLISH_BIAS with rotation to financials/healthcare at low sigma intensity
2-day forecastFinancials and SPY likely to continue modest upside over next 2 sessions if VIX stays <16 and breadth momentum does not drop below -15, extending selective rotation.
Watch
  • SPY 1d > +0.3%
  • financials outperform tech >0.5% 1d
  • VIX <16.0
32% [n=74] Brier 0.287
Commodity↗58%
Strategic commodities (corn +10.4% 5d, gold +15.2% 30d) outperforming crude (-5.4% 5d) in soft-dollar setup
2-day forecastCorn/gold expected to extend over next 2 sessions if USD softens further (EURUSD >1.16) and no Middle East escalation; sugar to hold gains above $18.50.
Watch
  • Corn >$540
  • Gold >$4650
  • Crude < $83 with no supply shock
34% [n=74] Brier 0.290
Currency↘55%
Soft-dollar trend (USDJPY -2.7% 30d, EURUSD +2.3% 30d) with stable geo risk 0.37 sets up for continued modest weakening
2-day forecastDollar likely to soften further over next 2 sessions (EURUSD higher) if rate differentials hold and geo risk remains <0.4 with no risk-off trigger.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.165
  • USDJPY <158.5
  • USDCNY <6.68
27% [n=74] Brier 0.311
Crypto↗60%
BTC LONG block (since 2026-08-12) with +0.846 20d USDC-BTC correlation and no boundary in next 2 days
2-day forecastLONG state expected to persist over next 2 sessions as correlation remains >0 and no 20-day block boundary fires to allow reassessment.
Watch
  • 20d corr stays >0
  • BTC holds >$78k
  • No block boundary triggered
31% [n=74] Brier 0.253

Market Situation

Interest Rates→
Normal curve (+38bp) and tightening priced (+59bp 2y-fed funds) set up for range-bound yields in stable geo regime
Financial↗
SPY/MSFT/XLE at 1.55-1.65σ WATCH in 7-day BULLISH_BIAS with rotation to financials/healthcare at low sigma intensity
Commodity↗
Strategic commodities (corn +10.4% 5d, gold +15.2% 30d) outperforming crude (-5.4% 5d) in soft-dollar setup
Currency↘
Soft-dollar trend (USDJPY -2.7% 30d, EURUSD +2.3% 30d) with stable geo risk 0.37 sets up for continued modest weakening
Crypto↗
BTC LONG block (since 2026-08-12) with +0.846 20d USDC-BTC correlation and no boundary in next 2 days

Signals

0 Critical
0 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
MSFT equity $500.28 $496.37 +1.65σ 252d watch LONG
SPY equity $766.08 $766.08 +1.55σ 252d watch LONG
XLE * equity $61.90 $62.43 +1.52σ 60d watch LONG
IWM equity $302.96 $298.86 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.40 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.21 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$1,132 · 4d
exposure $42,248 · 3 positions · σ 12.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$304.58
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 38.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.51

Geopolitical Risk

0.37 stable

Key flashpoints in the Middle East and Eastern Europe show contained transmission to commodities and risk assets, with diplomatic channels and ample global energy supply capping upside volatility; second-order effects predominate in FX safe-haven flows over the 7-30 day window.

Middle East medium

Intermittent Iran-proxy strikes on Gulf shipping lanes with Israeli retaliatory signals

oilrisk_assetsfx
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Ukraine front-line attrition with upcoming winter gas storage negotiations

natgasrates
NG=F, TLT
horizon: 30d
Indo-Pacific low

Routine Chinese military drills near Taiwan Strait with US freedom-of-navigation response

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 12d
Top tail risk medium high

Unexpected Russian disruption of European natgas flows amid Ukraine stalemate

Invalidate if: Renewed Minsk-format negotiations or EU-Russia interim storage agreement materializes

Hotspot calibration: 230/312 hits (74%), Brier 0.233 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-27

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth +0.90
AUDUSD=X: +2.99%; CADUSD=X: +1.66%; NZDUSD=X: +2.83%; BRLUSD=X: -0.32%
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
4/6 positive 21d (pct=0.67); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+8.4%, XLK:+6.9%, XLV:+3.8%, XLF:+1.1%, XLP:-0.9%, XLU:-4.4%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score +1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.32, z=-2.53
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-27

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -9.92 | 3m -4.61 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 8.8% | 3m 21.3% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -28.4% | Max -28.4%
ENB
4.86 (assets: 31)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 46% | High-Vol 4% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -9.92 | 3m -4.61 | 12m 1.82
Rolling Volatility
1m 8.8% | 3m 21.3% | 12m 33.3%
Drawdown
Current -28.4% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.86 (assets: 46)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (197d)131/30543% [38%-49%]+62.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/60% [0%-39%]-5.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (204d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (204d)206/44746% [42%-51%]+44.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/60% [0%-39%]-5.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.