The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-28 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates→62%
Normal curve with tightening priced and stable geo risk sets contained yield range
2-day forecastYields likely to hold orderly range over next 2 sessions; if 2s/10s spread stays above +30bp then 10Y expected near 4.65-4.75%
Watch
  • 2s/10s spread holds >+30bp
  • No NFP surprise >200k
  • MOVE index remains <72
31% [n=75] Brier 0.309
Financial↗56%
WATCH bullish bias on SPY/MSFT/NVDA with contracting breadth sets rotation window
2-day forecastEquities likely to see continued but rotational advance over next 2 sessions; if VIX stays below 15 then financials/healthcare expected to outperform tech
Watch
  • SPY holds above +1.5σ on 30d
  • Breadth momentum does not drop below -10
  • VIX closes below 15
33% [n=75] Brier 0.286
Commodity↗59%
Strategic commodities (corn/gold/silver) at strong 30d gains while crude decouples
2-day forecastCommodity basket likely to extend selective strength over next 2 sessions; if corn holds +4% 5d momentum then gold/silver expected firm vs crude
Watch
  • Corn 5d return >+5%
  • Gold holds above $4600
  • Crude does not reclaim $85
35% [n=75] Brier 0.289
Currency↘54%
Modest USD softening amid commodity strength and stable rate differentials
2-day forecastUSD likely to soften modestly over next 2 sessions; if EUR/USD holds above 1.165 then commodity currencies expected to stabilize or firm
Watch
  • DXY implied below 92
  • USDCNY stays below 6.75
  • AUDUSD holds 0.71 floor
27% [n=75] Brier 0.311
Crypto↗56%
BTC 20d USDC-vol corr +0.841 keeps mechanical LONG block active, no boundary today
2-day forecastLONG state expected to persist over next 2 sessions with no block boundary; if 20d correlation remains >0 then BTC bias stays positive until next reset
Watch
  • 20d corr stays >0
  • No block boundary in window
  • BTC holds above $78k
32% [n=75] Brier 0.251

Market Situation

Interest Rates→
Normal curve with tightening priced and stable geo risk sets contained yield range
Financial↗
WATCH bullish bias on SPY/MSFT/NVDA with contracting breadth sets rotation window
Commodity↗
Strategic commodities (corn/gold/silver) at strong 30d gains while crude decouples
Currency↘
Modest USD softening amid commodity strength and stable rate differentials
Crypto↗
BTC 20d USDC-vol corr +0.841 keeps mechanical LONG block active, no boundary today

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
2 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
NVDA * equity $227.98 $227.98 +2.11σ 60d alert LONG
MSFT equity $500.28 $505.06 +1.84σ 252d watch LONG
SPY equity $771.10 $771.10 +1.67σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $302.92 $299.33 — — held HELD
XLE equity $61.90 $62.43 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.44 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.21 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$955 · 4d
exposure $40,336 · 3 positions · σ 11.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$118.49
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 39.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.47

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Geopolitical transmission remains low-to-moderate with primary coupling into energy commodities via Middle East and Eastern Europe tensions; independent market signals (flat vol term structure, contained cross-asset correlations) show limited cascade to rates, FX or broad risk assets. De-escalation pathways via backchannel diplomacy and actor reflexivity are overweighted given absence of confirming orthogonal flows.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow conflict with sporadic proxy strikes on Gulf shipping

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine stalemate with seasonal threats to European natgas flows

natgasoil
NG=F, CL=F
horizon: 30d
Indo-Pacific low

Routine Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan with US freedom-of-navigation responses

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X
horizon: 10d
Top tail risk medium high

Coordinated Russia cyber disruption of European LNG terminals ahead of winter

Invalidate if: Independent confirmation of sustained diplomatic progress on Ukraine energy corridor or sharp drop in natgas implied vol without price spike

Hotspot calibration: 232/315 hits (74%), Brier 0.233 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-28

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth +0.83
AUDUSD=X: +3.44%; CADUSD=X: +1.32%; NZDUSD=X: +2.56%; BRLUSD=X: -0.69%
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
4/6 positive 21d (pct=0.67); top=XLK (cyclical-led); XLK:+13.2%, XLE:+6.2%, XLV:+3.2%, XLF:+2.1%, XLP:-2.6%, XLU:-3.9%
Balance Sheet +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score +1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.34, z=-1.69
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+1) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-28

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -10.14 | 3m -4.90 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 8.4% | 3m 20.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -28.2% | Max -28.2%
ENB
4.87 (assets: 31)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 46% | High-Vol 4% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: low_vol (46%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -10.14 | 3m -4.90 | 12m 1.74
Rolling Volatility
1m 8.4% | 3m 20.9% | 12m 33.2%
Drawdown
Current -28.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.87 (assets: 46)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (198d)132/30743% [38%-49%]+62.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/40% [0%-49%]-4.5%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (205d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (205d)207/44946% [42%-51%]+44.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/40% [0%-49%]-4.5%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.