The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-29 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘55%
Normal curve (+38bp) with tightening priced (+59bp 2y-ff) and stable geo risk (0.38) sets up for contained yield volatility near 4.67%
2-day forecast10y yields likely to consolidate or revert modestly lower over next 2 sessions toward 4.55% if MOVE stays below 72 and no surprise NFP/CPI deviation, keeping long-end orderly for reflation.
Watch
  • 10y yield breaks below 4.55
  • 2s/10s spread holds above +30bp
  • MOVE index remains below 72
31% [n=75] Brier 0.309
Financial↗56%
SPY +1.66σ and NVDA +2.11σ amid 7d bullish streak with breadth momentum -6 sets up for rotation from AI concentration
2-day forecastEquities expected to advance selectively over next 2 sessions via financials/healthcare outperformance if dispersion stays low at 0.16 and VIX holds below 15, with overall index likely to extend modestly.
Watch
  • SPY holds above +1.5σ level
  • VIX closes below 14.0
  • Financials sector beats NDX by 0.5%
33% [n=75] Brier 0.286
Commodity↗57%
Corn +64 and wheat +53 momentum with contained crude vol and low geo transmission sets up for strategic commodity firmness
2-day forecastCommodity basket likely to firm over next 2 sessions if USD pauses recent strength and AUDUSD holds above 0.715, with grains and precious metals leading reflation support.
Watch
  • Corn momentum stays above +60
  • Crude oil holds above 30d support
  • Gold corr to USD turns negative
35% [n=75] Brier 0.289
Currency↘52%
EURUSD 1.16 with mixed commodity currencies and 30d USD softening bias sets up for modest resumption of soft-dollar trend
2-day forecastUSD expected to soften modestly over next 2 sessions if BTC correlation remains >0.8 and risk assets hold gains, lifting EURUSD if no BOJ intervention.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.165
  • USDJPY fails to sustain above 160
  • AUDUSD resumes 5d uptrend
27% [n=75] Brier 0.311
Crypto↗60%
BTC $80257.54 with +0.837 20d USDC-vol corr and ongoing LONG block (since 2026-08-14) sets up for mechanical risk-on persistence
2-day forecastLONG block expected to persist unchanged over next 2 sessions (no boundary today) with BTC likely to consolidate gains if 20d correlation stays positive above 0 and equities remain stable.
Watch
  • 20d USDC-BTC corr remains >0
  • No block boundary crossed
  • BTC holds above $78000
32% [n=75] Brier 0.251

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Normal curve (+38bp) with tightening priced (+59bp 2y-ff) and stable geo risk (0.38) sets up for contained yield volatility near 4.67%
Financial↗
SPY +1.66σ and NVDA +2.11σ amid 7d bullish streak with breadth momentum -6 sets up for rotation from AI concentration
Commodity↗
Corn +64 and wheat +53 momentum with contained crude vol and low geo transmission sets up for strategic commodity firmness
Currency↘
EURUSD 1.16 with mixed commodity currencies and 30d USD softening bias sets up for modest resumption of soft-dollar trend
Crypto↗
BTC $80257.54 with +0.837 20d USDC-vol corr and ongoing LONG block (since 2026-08-14) sets up for mechanical risk-on persistence

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
2 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
NVDA equity $227.98 $227.98 +2.11σ 60d alert LONG
MSFT equity $500.28 $505.06 +1.85σ 252d watch LONG
SPY equity $771.10 $771.10 +1.66σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $302.46 $295.75 — — held HELD
XLE equity $61.90 $62.68 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.26 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.20 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$557 · 4d
exposure $23,523 · 3 positions · σ 11.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$88.54
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 41.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.65

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Geopolitical tensions persist in the Middle East and Eastern Europe but exhibit low transmission coefficients to core market nodes; oil and natgas show contained volatility while FX safe-haven flows and risk assets remain anchored by active diplomatic signaling and absent orthogonal confirmation of cascade.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed proxy clashes with Israeli and shipping targets in Red Sea/Persian Gulf

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine stalemate with winter natgas supply rhetoric

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 30d
East Asia low

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan Strait

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 10d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct Iran-Israel confrontation closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: Diplomatic mediation progress via Oman or observable naval de-escalation and reduced proxy activity

Hotspot calibration: 230/319 hits (72%), Brier 0.235 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-29

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +0.98
USDJPY=X: z21=+1.47
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
4/6 positive 21d (pct=0.67); top=XLK (cyclical-led); XLK:+13.2%, XLE:+6.2%, XLV:+3.2%, XLF:+2.1%, XLP:-2.6%, XLU:-3.9%
Balance Sheet +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.63, z=-1.80
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+1) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-29

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -5.26 | 3m -4.36 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 11.9% | 3m 21.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -26.5% | Max -28.2%
ENB
4.93 (assets: 31)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 44% | High-Vol 6% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -5.26 | 3m -4.36 | 12m 1.66
Rolling Volatility
1m 11.9% | 3m 21.6% | 12m 32.7%
Drawdown
Current -26.5% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.93 (assets: 46)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 46% | Mean-Rev 4%
Current: trend (46%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (199d)134/30844% [38%-49%]+66.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/333% [6%-79%]-2.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.53 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (206d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (206d)209/45046% [42%-51%]+47.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/333% [6%-79%]-2.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.52 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.