The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-30 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗55%
Normal curve with +59bp tightening priced and 10y at 4.72% sets up for rangebound consolidation absent data surprises
2-day forecast10y yields likely to edge modestly higher over next 2 sessions toward 4.75-4.85% if rate expectations spread holds above +55bp and no dovish FOMC signals
Watch
  • 2y-fed funds spread widens >+65bp
  • 10y yield breaks above 4.80%
  • Consumer sentiment holds post +11.5% move
31% [n=75] Brier 0.309
Financial↗56%
SPY at +1.60σ watch and MSFT +2.03σ with breadth momentum -8 sets up for selective advance via rotation
2-day forecastEquities likely to advance selectively over next 2 sessions via financials/healthcare rotation if dispersion stays below 0.20 and VIX holds under 15
Watch
  • SPY holds above +1.5σ
  • Breadth momentum remains >-10
  • Tech sector lags broader index by >0.5%
33% [n=75] Brier 0.286
Commodity↘76%
WEAT at +3.09σ statistical extreme above 30-day mean after +12.5% 5d wheat move sets up mean reversion
2-day forecastGrains and broad commodities likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if no new supply shocks, with wheat testing -2σ if velocity falls below +0.10
Watch
  • WEAT closes below +2.0σ
  • Wheat 1d change turns negative >-2%
  • No escalation in Eastern Europe hotspots
35% [n=75] Brier 0.289
Currency↘52%
EURUSD at 1.16 with stable geo risk 0.38 and positive BTC correlation sets up for modest USD softening
2-day forecastUSD likely to soften modestly over next 2 sessions versus commodity currencies if 20d corr stays >+0.6 and rate differentials do not widen sharply
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.17
  • USDJPY holds below 161
  • Commodity currencies reverse 5d losses
27% [n=75] Brier 0.311
Crypto↗65%
BTC in mechanical LONG block (since 2026-08-15) with +0.748 20d USDC-vol corr and no boundary today
2-day forecastLONG block state expected to persist over next 2 sessions with positive correlation maintaining risk-on tilt absent drop below zero
Watch
  • 20d corr falls below 0.0
  • BTC 1d move exceeds -5% on high volume
  • Block boundary triggers with negative sign
32% [n=75] Brier 0.251

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
Normal curve with +59bp tightening priced and 10y at 4.72% sets up for rangebound consolidation absent data surprises
Financial↗
SPY at +1.60σ watch and MSFT +2.03σ with breadth momentum -8 sets up for selective advance via rotation
Commodity↘
WEAT at +3.09σ statistical extreme above 30-day mean after +12.5% 5d wheat move sets up mean reversion
Currency↘
EURUSD at 1.16 with stable geo risk 0.38 and positive BTC correlation sets up for modest USD softening
Crypto↗
BTC in mechanical LONG block (since 2026-08-15) with +0.748 20d USDC-vol corr and no boundary today

Signals

1 Critical
1 Alert
1 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
WEAT * equity $28.00 $28.00 +3.09σ 252d critical SHORT
MSFT * equity $500.28 $513.53 +2.03σ 252d alert LONG
SPY * equity $769.35 $769.35 +1.60σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $302.46 $295.75 — — held HELD
XLE equity $61.90 $62.68 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.37 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.20 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$504 · 4d
exposure $23,523 · 3 positions · σ 10.3% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$88.54
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 41.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.54

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Geopolitical tensions persist in the Middle East and Eastern Europe but show contained transmission to oil and natgas amid ample inventories and active diplomatic channels; Indo-Pacific friction remains a secondary risk to FX and risk assets with no immediate cascade evident in options or cross-asset flows.

Middle East medium

Intermittent Israel-Hezbollah exchanges and Iranian proxy activity in Levant

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Stalemate in Ukraine-Russia conflict with periodic infrastructure strikes

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific low

Elevated Chinese military patrols near Taiwan Strait

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPY
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: Renewed multilateral talks or US-mediated ceasefire produces verifiable de-escalation measures

Hotspot calibration: 232/323 hits (72%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-30

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +0.98
USDJPY=X: z21=+1.47
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-3.02
Balance Sheet +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.63, z=-1.80
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+1) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-30

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.38 | 3m -3.94 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 13.4% | 3m 21.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -25.3% | Max -28.2%
ENB
4.99 (assets: 31)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 47% | Mean-Rev 3%
Current: trend (47%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.38 | 3m -3.94 | 12m 1.76
Rolling Volatility
1m 13.4% | 3m 21.9% | 12m 32.7%
Drawdown
Current -25.3% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.99 (assets: 46)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 47% | Mean-Rev 3%
Current: trend (47%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (200d)137/31144% [39%-50%]+71.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/333% [6%-79%]-2.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.55 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (207d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (207d)212/45347% [42%-51%]+50.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/333% [6%-79%]-2.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.54 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.