The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-31 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗54%
Normal curve and tightening priced in (+59bp 2y-ff spread) with stable geo risk sets up for contained yield moves
2-day forecastYields likely to drift mildly higher over next 2 sessions if 2y-fed funds spread holds above +50bp and consumer sentiment does not jump >5pts.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks above 4.75%
  • MOVE index stays below 72
  • no dovish surprise in upcoming data
30% [n=76] Brier 0.308
Financial↗57%
SPY at +1.60σ WATCH and 100% bullish direction ratio but with breadth momentum -8 and low dispersion 0.57
2-day forecastEquities likely to see modest continuation higher over next 2 sessions per WATCH momentum base rate if VIX stays under 16.5, though breadth contraction skews risks lower.
Watch
  • SPY holds above 767
  • MSFT does not revert below +1.5σ
  • breadth momentum improves above -5
33% [n=76] Brier 0.286
Commodity↘74%
WEAT at +3.09σ statistical extremes after +20.9% 30d rally on geo supply risks but with stable 0.48 risk score and weak tape confirmation
2-day forecastCommodity prices especially grains likely to mean revert lower over next 2 sessions if geo risk remains <0.55 and no fresh strikes reported, anchored to 0.76 base rate.
Watch
  • wheat drops below $760
  • broad commodities index turns negative on 1d
  • crude fails to sustain above $87
34% [n=76] Brier 0.290
Currency↗53%
USD supported by tightening expectations and rate differentials against softening commodity currencies in stable regime
2-day forecastUSD likely to extend modestly higher over next 2 sessions if yield spread remains >50bp and EURUSD stays below 1.165.
Watch
  • USDCNY holds below 6.75
  • AUDUSD fails to reclaim 0.725
  • USDJPY sustains above 159
26% [n=76] Brier 0.311
Crypto↗62%
BTC in mechanical LONG block with +0.824 20d USDC-vol correlation and no boundary today
2-day forecastLONG state expected to persist over next 2 sessions with no block boundary; correlation would need to flip negative to change at next decision point.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 77500
  • 20d correlation remains >0.7
  • no regime shift before 20d boundary
32% [n=76] Brier 0.253

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
Normal curve and tightening priced in (+59bp 2y-ff spread) with stable geo risk sets up for contained yield moves
Financial↗
SPY at +1.60σ WATCH and 100% bullish direction ratio but with breadth momentum -8 and low dispersion 0.57
Commodity↘
WEAT at +3.09σ statistical extremes after +20.9% 30d rally on geo supply risks but with stable 0.48 risk score and weak tape confirmation
Currency↗
USD supported by tightening expectations and rate differentials against softening commodity currencies in stable regime
Crypto↗
BTC in mechanical LONG block with +0.824 20d USDC-vol correlation and no boundary today

Signals

1 Critical
1 Alert
1 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
WEAT equity $28.00 $28.00 +3.09σ 252d critical SHORT
MSFT equity $500.28 $513.53 +2.04σ 252d alert LONG
SPY equity $769.35 $769.35 +1.60σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $302.46 $295.46 — — held HELD
XLE equity $61.90 $63.64 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.21 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.20 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$504 · 4d
exposure $23,523 · 3 positions · σ 10.3% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$298.21
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 41.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.70

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Middle East proxy actions and Ukraine infrastructure strikes maintain modest upward pressure on energy channels while Indo-Pacific naval posturing weighs on risk sentiment; independent tape confirmation remains weak and diplomatic tracks in all theaters provide clear de-escalation paths that could collapse premia inside 30 days.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed militia strikes on Gulf shipping and Israeli energy targets

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USO
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russian drone campaign targets Ukrainian natgas transit and storage

natgasoil
NG=F, TTF=F, BRN=F
horizon: 10d
Indo-Pacific medium

Chinese PLAN live-fire drills near Taiwan and Philippines EEZ

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, EURUSD=X, SPX
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz for >5 days

Invalidate if: US-China co-brokered interim understanding halts proxy attacks and reopens nuclear talks

Hotspot calibration: 235/326 hits (72%), Brier 0.235 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-31

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +0.76
USDJPY=X: z21=+1.14
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-3.02
Balance Sheet +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.63, z=-1.80
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+1) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-31

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.94 | 3m -5.24 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.6% | 3m 26.7% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -36.4% | Max -39.5%
ENB
5.32 (assets: 31)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.71 | 3m -0.96 | 12m 3.94
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.0% | 3m 60.7% | 12m 62.9%
Drawdown
Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%
ENB
2.89 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.94 | 3m -5.24 | 12m 2.06
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.6% | 3m 26.7% | 12m 45.4%
Drawdown
Current -36.4% | Max -88.7%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (200d)134/30844% [38%-49%]+70.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/333% [6%-79%]-2.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.55 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (208d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (208d)209/45046% [42%-51%]+49.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/333% [6%-79%]-2.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.53 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.