The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-09-04 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘54%
Normal curve with tightening expectations but SHY at +1.71σ WATCH signaling short-term bond strength
2-day forecastYields likely to drift lower over next 2 sessions if equity risk sentiment holds, with 10Y expected below 4.70 on any continued SPY strength above 770.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks below 4.65
  • 2s/10s spread widens more than 8bp
  • VIX remains under 15
30% [n=82] Brier 0.305
Financial↗56%
Equities at WATCH levels (SPY +1.64σ, NVDA +1.98σ) inside 7-day BULLISH_BIAS streak and low dispersion
2-day forecastBroad indices likely to extend mildly higher over next 2 sessions if SPY holds above 770 and tech confirms, targeting continuation from current WATCH sigma levels.
Watch
  • SPY holds above 770
  • NVDA stays above 225
  • VIX fails to rise above 15
32% [n=82] Brier 0.286
Commodity↘76%
Grain complex at statistical extremes (CORN +3.14σ CRITICAL, WEAT +2.34σ ALERT) after sharp 30d rallies
2-day forecastGrains likely to mean-revert lower over next 2 sessions if no fresh Eastern Europe supply disruption, with CORN expected to pull back if it fails to hold 535.
Watch
  • CORN falls below 530
  • wheat fails to confirm new highs
  • no escalation in Middle East shipping strikes
34% [n=82] Brier 0.298
Currency↘53%
Mild USD weakness with FXY at +2.61σ ALERT and USDJPY -2.4% over 5d on rate differentials
2-day forecastUSD likely to weaken further or stabilize lower over next 2 sessions if risk-on bias persists, with EURUSD expected to test above 1.165 if equities hold gains.
Watch
  • USDJPY breaks below 155
  • EURUSD clears 1.165
  • USDCNY remains below 6.75
27% [n=82] Brier 0.308
Crypto↗57%
BTC in mechanical LONG block (since 2026-08-17) with +0.564 20d USDC-vol corr and no boundary today
2-day forecastMechanical LONG state expected to persist over next 2 sessions with positive correlation maintaining the block until next 20-day boundary.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 80000
  • 20d corr stays positive
  • no block boundary fires
34% [n=82] Brier 0.251

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Normal curve with tightening expectations but SHY at +1.71σ WATCH signaling short-term bond strength
Financial↗
Equities at WATCH levels (SPY +1.64σ, NVDA +1.98σ) inside 7-day BULLISH_BIAS streak and low dispersion
Commodity↘
Grain complex at statistical extremes (CORN +3.14σ CRITICAL, WEAT +2.34σ ALERT) after sharp 30d rallies
Currency↘
Mild USD weakness with FXY at +2.61σ ALERT and USDJPY -2.4% over 5d on rate differentials
Crypto↗
BTC in mechanical LONG block (since 2026-08-17) with +0.564 20d USDC-vol corr and no boundary today

Signals

1 Critical
2 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
CORN equity $20.17 $20.17 +3.14σ 252d critical SHORT
FXY * equity $58.87 $58.87 +2.61σ 60d alert LONG
WEAT equity $27.12 $27.12 +2.34σ 252d alert LONG
NVDA equity $228.45 $228.45 +1.98σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT equity $509.34 $510.12 +1.89σ 252d watch LONG
XLE equity $61.90 $64.62 +1.74σ 252d watch LONG
SHY * equity $81.71 $81.71 +1.71σ 252d watch LONG
SPY * equity $773.17 $773.17 +1.64σ 252d watch LONG
GLD commodity $412.30 $409.69 — — held HELD
IWM equity $302.46 $295.36 — — held HELD
QQQ equity $717.39 $721.42 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.50 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.22 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$571 · 4d
exposure $34,063 · 4 positions · σ 8.1% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$495.14
Commodities
$124 · 4d
exposure $3,333 · 1 position · σ 18.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$21.12
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 43.2% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.40

Geopolitical Risk

0.37 stable

Diplomatic tracks in Ukraine and the Middle East remain open despite proxy incidents and military posturing in East Asia; transmission to commodities and risk assets stays limited with oil and natgas largely range-bound, as second-order funding-currency and rate effects have not materialized.

Middle East medium

Iranian proxies conducting limited strikes on Gulf shipping amid nuclear-talk impasse

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe medium

Winter energy leverage in Ukraine ceasefire negotiations

natgasrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 25d
East Asia low

Chinese live-fire drills encircling Taiwan

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 12d
Top tail risk medium high

Russian suspension of all Ukraine grain corridor access triggering global food and natgas spike

Invalidate if: Renewed Istanbul-style agreement or EU-brokered winter truce

Hotspot calibration: 245/338 hits (72%), Brier 0.235 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-09-04

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+0.38; USDJPY=X: z=-3.31; CNY=X: z=-2.37
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-1.93
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.86
real_yield_10y: latest=2.45, z=+1.29
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-09-04

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.23 | 3m -6.80 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.9% | 3m 25.0% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -39.5% | Max -39.8%
ENB
5.46 (assets: 33)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.71 | 3m -0.96 | 12m 3.94
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.0% | 3m 60.7% | 12m 62.9%
Drawdown
Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%
ENB
2.89 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.23 | 3m -6.80 | 12m 1.78
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.9% | 3m 25.0% | 12m 45.0%
Drawdown
Current -39.5% | Max -88.7%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (205d)138/31744% [38%-49%]+69.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/633% [10%-70%]-0.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.54 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (212d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (212d)213/45946% [42%-51%]+49.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/633% [10%-70%]-0.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.53 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.