The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-09-05 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates→62%
Normal yield curve with tightening expectations priced (+59bp 2y-FF spread) and stable geo risk score of 0.48 setting up for consolidation
2-day forecastYields likely to consolidate over next 2 sessions if 10Y holds below 4.85% with no NFP surprise above 200k; expect neutral if consumer sentiment remains above 55.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks 4.85%
  • 2s10s spread moves >5bp
  • VIX spikes above 16
30% [n=82] Brier 0.305
Financial↗56%
SPY at +1.54σ WATCH and NVDA at +2.07σ ALERT within 100% bullish direction ratio and 7-day BULLISH_BIAS streak at sigma intensity 1.50
2-day forecastBroad equities likely to see mild continuation over next 2 sessions if SPY holds above 768 with WATCH momentum continuation; VIX close below 15 would confirm.
Watch
  • SPY holds above 768
  • VIX closes below 15
  • NVDA maintains above 2σ level
32% [n=82] Brier 0.286
Commodity↘76%
CORN at CRITICAL +2.91σ UP after +16.6% 30d with wheat -5.4% 5d pullback and crude at highs setting up for mean reversion
2-day forecastGrains complex likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if CORN breaks below 505 and momentum velocity stays negative; expect downside if no fresh supply shock.
Watch
  • CORN breaks below 505
  • wheat falls >2% in 2d
  • crude fails to hold above 91
34% [n=82] Brier 0.298
Currency↗55%
FXY at +2.19σ ALERT for yen strength as USD/JPY weakens with low 0.42 dispersion and stable 0.48 geo risk in tightening rate expectations
2-day forecastYen likely to see continued strength over next 2 sessions if corr to risk gauges holds and geo risk stays below 0.50; USD/CNY stable near 6.72 would support.
Watch
  • USDJPY breaks below 155
  • FXY holds above 2σ
  • EURUSD above 1.162
27% [n=82] Brier 0.308
Crypto↗57%
silk_crypto mechanical LONG block holding with +0.387 20d USDC-volume vs BTC corr and no block boundary today
2-day forecastLONG block expected to persist over next 2 sessions with no boundary; correlation would need to turn negative at next 20d boundary to trigger FLAT.
Watch
  • 20d corr remains >0
  • BTC holds above 78000
  • no intra-block negative flip
34% [n=82] Brier 0.251

Market Situation

Interest Rates→
Normal yield curve with tightening expectations priced (+59bp 2y-FF spread) and stable geo risk score of 0.48 setting up for consolidation
Financial↗
SPY at +1.54σ WATCH and NVDA at +2.07σ ALERT within 100% bullish direction ratio and 7-day BULLISH_BIAS streak at sigma intensity 1.50
Commodity↘
CORN at CRITICAL +2.91σ UP after +16.6% 30d with wheat -5.4% 5d pullback and crude at highs setting up for mean reversion
Currency↗
FXY at +2.19σ ALERT for yen strength as USD/JPY weakens with low 0.42 dispersion and stable 0.48 geo risk in tightening rate expectations
Crypto↗
silk_crypto mechanical LONG block holding with +0.387 20d USDC-volume vs BTC corr and no block boundary today

Signals

0 Critical
3 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
CORN * equity $20.07 $20.07 +2.91σ 252d alert LONG
FXY equity $58.89 $58.67 +2.19σ 60d alert LONG
NVDA equity $230.36 $230.36 +2.07σ 252d alert LONG
MSFT equity $509.31 $499.70 +1.64σ 252d watch LONG
XLE * equity $61.90 $64.06 +1.63σ 252d watch LONG
SHY equity $81.69 $81.69 +1.63σ 252d watch LONG
SPY equity $770.19 $770.19 +1.54σ 252d watch LONG
GLD commodity $412.30 $406.77 — — held HELD
IWM equity $302.46 $296.01 — — held HELD
QQQ equity $717.39 $718.96 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.49 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.21 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$800 · 4d
exposure $47,141 · 5 positions · σ 8.2% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$208.73
Commodities
$124 · 4d
exposure $3,333 · 1 position · σ 17.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$44.68
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 44.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.42

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Persistent flashpoints in the Middle East and Eastern Europe exhibit contained transmission into energy and risk-premium channels, with futures curves and cross-asset correlations showing limited spillover thus far. Diplomatic signaling and actor reflexivity point to de-escalation equilibria as viable near-term paths over the 7-30 day window.

Middle East medium

Iran proxy actions and Israeli responses threatening Hormuz and Red Sea transit

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine winter energy leverage and incremental strikes on infrastructure

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
East Asia medium

Elevated Chinese maneuvers near Taiwan amid US alliance tightening

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, NKY
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing key chokepoints

Invalidate if: Backchannel diplomacy yields verifiable de-escalation commitments or observable drawdown in physical risk premia

Hotspot calibration: 245/341 hits (72%), Brier 0.235 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-09-05

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+0.31; USDJPY=X: z=-3.35; CNY=X: z=-1.65
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
4/6 positive 21d (pct=0.67); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+10.1%, XLV:+4.3%, XLK:+1.1%, XLF:+0.5%, XLP:-0.6%, XLU:-0.7%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +0.62
credit_hy: latest=2.65, z=-0.94
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-09-05

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -4.74 | 3m -5.83 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.6% | 3m 25.0% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -36.9% | Max -39.5%
ENB
5.62 (assets: 33)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.71 | 3m -0.96 | 12m 3.94
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.0% | 3m 60.7% | 12m 62.9%
Drawdown
Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%
ENB
2.89 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -4.74 | 3m -5.83 | 12m 1.85
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.6% | 3m 25.0% | 12m 44.9%
Drawdown
Current -36.9% | Max -88.7%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (206d)137/31743% [38%-49%]+69.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/540% [12%-77%]+0.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.54 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (213d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (213d)212/45946% [42%-51%]+50.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/540% [12%-77%]+0.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.53 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.