The Silk - 2026-09-06

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗56%

10Y at +1.96σ WATCH UP with tightening expectations priced and normal curve in stable geo regime setting up for elevated yields under sticky reflation.

2-day forecastYields likely to extend or hold elevated levels over next 2 sessions if rate expectations spread remains above +50bp and no soft data surprises; expect continuation from current WATCH deviation.

Watch

if 2y-fed funds spread stays >+0.50 then yields continue up
if VIX remains <16 then no safe-haven bid
if geo risk score stays <0.40 then muted transmission

30% [n=82] Brier 0.305

Financial↗56%

SPY at +1.54σ WATCH and NVDA at +2.07σ ALERT with 7-day BULLISH_BIAS streak but contracting breadth -8 indicating narrow AI/energy leadership.

2-day forecastSelective equity grind higher likely over next 2 sessions if sigma intensity stays below 2.0 and dispersion remains low; leadership in NVDA and XLE expected to persist.

Watch

if NVDA sigma stays >2.0 then ALERT leadership continues
if direction ratio holds >0.80 then bias intact
if 10Y yield rise stays <+10bp then limited pressure on beta

32% [n=82] Brier 0.286

Commodity↗56%

Broad commodities firm after +10.3% (30d) with crude +18.4% and grains elevated under stable geo risk and soft USD, aligning with sticky reflation.

2-day forecastCommodities likely to remain firm with modest upside bias over next 2 sessions if hotspots show no escalation and correlation to USD stays negative.

Watch

if crude holds above $90 then broad complex supported
if geo risk regime stays stable then no supply shock
if USDJPY stays below 157 then commodity positive

34% [n=82] Brier 0.298

Currency↘53%

Modest soft USD setup with EURUSD and commodity currencies firm against tightening US expectations but stable global risk and reflation rotation.

2-day forecastUSD likely to soften modestly over next 2 sessions if risk appetite holds and central bank divergence does not widen in favor of USD; EURUSD expected to edge higher if 10Y rise is contained.

Watch

if rate expectations spread stays near +0.59 then limited USD bid
if VIX <16 then risk-on supports soft USD
if geo risk score remains 0.32 then no safe-haven flow

27% [n=82] Brier 0.308

Crypto↗59%

BTC in LONG block (since 2026-09-06) with +0.154 20d USDC-vol corr and boundary today in reflation regime with selective risk appetite.

2-day forecastLONG state expected to persist over next 2 sessions and post-boundary if correlation sign stays positive above zero; BTC likely to hold supported levels absent negative correlation flip.

Watch

if 20d corr remains >0 then LONG holds at boundary
if BTC 30d outperformance does not revert sharply then risk-on intact
if equity leadership persists then crypto correlation positive

34% [n=82] Brier 0.251

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗

10Y at +1.96σ WATCH UP with tightening expectations priced and normal curve in stable geo regime setting up for elevated yields under sticky reflation.

Financial↗

SPY at +1.54σ WATCH and NVDA at +2.07σ ALERT with 7-day BULLISH_BIAS streak but contracting breadth -8 indicating narrow AI/energy leadership.

Commodity↗

Broad commodities firm after +10.3% (30d) with crude +18.4% and grains elevated under stable geo risk and soft USD, aligning with sticky reflation.

Currency↘

Modest soft USD setup with EURUSD and commodity currencies firm against tightening US expectations but stable global risk and reflation rotation.

Crypto↗

BTC in LONG block (since 2026-09-06) with +0.154 20d USDC-vol corr and boundary today in reflation regime with selective risk appetite.

Signals

0 Critical

1 Alert

4 Watch

Click row for details

Show held positions

Asset	Class	Entry	Current	Z-Score	Window	Level	Trade
NVDA	equity	$230.36	$230.36	+2.07σ	252d	alert	LONG
^TNX *	equity	$4.78	$4.78	+1.96σ	252d	watch	LONG
XLF *	equity	$58.10	$58.10	+1.78σ	252d	watch	LONG
XLE	equity	$61.90	$64.06	+1.63σ	252d	watch	LONG
SPY	equity	$770.19	$770.19	+1.54σ	252d	watch	LONG
FXY	equity	$58.89	$58.67	—	—	held	HELD
GLD	commodity	$412.30	$406.77	—	—	held	HELD
IWM	equity	$302.46	$296.01	—	—	held	HELD
MSFT	equity	$509.31	$499.70	—	—	held	HELD
QQQ	equity	$717.39	$718.96	—	—	held	HELD
AVAX-USD	crypto	$9.90	$7.69	—	—	held	HELD
ADA-USD	crypto	$0.27	$0.22	—	—	held	HELD

Risk

Core

$800 · 4d

exposure $47,141 · 5 positions · σ 8.2% annual (21d realized)

P&L +$208.73

Commodities

$124 · 4d

exposure $3,333 · 1 position · σ 17.9% annual (21d realized)

P&L -$44.68

Crypto

$1 · 4d

exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 44.2% annual (21d realized)

P&L -$2.21

Geopolitical Risk

0.32 stable

Contained proxy tensions in the Middle East and positional stalemate in Ukraine show limited market coupling, with diplomatic signaling and stable physical flows keeping energy and risk premia in check; second-order FX and rates effects remain muted pending orthogonal confirmation.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed proxy actions in Lebanon/Yemen met with measured Israeli responses amid backchannel talks

oilrisk_assets

CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X

horizon: 14d

Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine front-line attrition with intermittent ceasefire proposals from both sides

natgasfx

NG=F, EURUSD=X

horizon: 21d

East Asia low

Routine Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan without escalation triggers

fxrisk_assets

USDJPY=X, SPY

horizon: 30d

Top tail risk low severe

Sudden closure of Strait of Hormuz from direct Iran-Israel strike

Invalidate if: Visible de-escalation via US-China facilitated talks or independent verification of reduced naval posturing and resumed JCPOA-adjacent diplomacy

Hotspot calibration: 249/345 hits (72%), Brier 0.235 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral

Cash Flow 0 neutral

2/4 signals agreeing

CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5

CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00

EURUSD=X: z=+0.31; USDJPY=X: z=-3.35; CNY=X: z=-1.65

Income 0 neutral

1/5 signals agreeing

I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5

I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00

4/6 positive 21d (pct=0.67); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+10.1%, XLV:+4.3%, XLK:+1.1%, XLF:+0.5%, XLP:-0.6%, XLU:-0.7%

Balance Sheet 0 neutral

1/5 signals agreeing

B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6

B-2 HY credit spread z-score +0.62

credit_hy: latest=2.65, z=-0.94

Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells

Pending signals (not in vote): B-6

V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL

Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10

Account paper

NAV$100,000

Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)

Drawdown+0.00%

As of2026-05-21

Sleeve	Target	Buffer	Admission cap
silk_commodity_etf	40%	+5pp	$27,000
silk_commodity_futures	40%	+5pp	$27,000
silk_crypto	20%	+5pp	$15,000
silk_equity	40%	+5pp	$27,000
silk_futures	10%	+5pp	$9,000

Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe

1m -6.05 | 3m -6.20 | 12m n/a

Rolling Volatility

1m 18.4% | 3m 24.9% | 12m n/a

Drawdown

Current -38.3% | Max -39.5%

ENB

5.49 (assets: 33)

Regime Probability

Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%

Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe

1m -2.71 | 3m -0.96 | 12m 3.94

Rolling Volatility

1m 38.0% | 3m 60.7% | 12m 62.9%

Drawdown

Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%

ENB

2.89 (assets: 13)

Regime Probability

Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%

Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe

1m -6.05 | 3m -6.20 | 12m 1.83

Rolling Volatility

1m 18.4% | 3m 24.9% | 12m 44.9%

Drawdown

Current -38.3% | Max -88.7%

ENB

1.00 (assets: 0)

Regime Probability

Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%

Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

Window	Wins/Total	Rate	Return	Stats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)	574/1292	44% [42%-47%]	+359.7%	Longs only
Out of Sample (207d)	138/319	43% [38%-49%]	+65.8%	Longs only
Recent (7d)	1/4	25% [5%-70%]	-1.9%	Longs only
OOS Sharpe	0.52 (annualized, trade-level)			Longs only

Commodity OOS

Window	Wins/Total	Rate	Return	Stats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)	2274/4959	46% [44%-47%]	+183.7%	Longs only
Out of Sample (214d)	75/142	53% [45%-61%]	+6.2%	Longs only
OOS Sharpe	0.51 (annualized, trade-level)			Longs only

Crypto OOS

Window	Wins/Total	Rate	Return	Stats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)	42/69	61% [49%-72%]	+821.2%	Longs only

Combined

Window	Wins/Total	Rate	Return	Stats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)	2890/6320	46% [45%-47%]	+226.7%	Longs only
Out of Sample (214d)	213/461	46% [42%-51%]	+47.4%	Longs only
Recent (7d)	1/4	25% [5%-70%]	-1.9%	Longs only
OOS Sharpe	0.52 (annualized, trade-level)			Longs only

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Market Situation

Signals ↻ Refresh prices

Risk

Geopolitical Risk

Finance View — Three Sheets

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Commodities

Crypto

Combined

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

Commodity OOS

Crypto OOS

Combined

Refresh prices

Signals