The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-09-07 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗55%
Tightening expectations (+59bp 2y-fed funds) and escalating geo risk score keep yields elevated in normal curve regime
2-day forecastYields likely to edge higher over next 2 sessions if tightening spread holds above +50bp and no de-escalation leaks emerge; expect 10Y to test 4.80-4.85% on persistent reflation signals.
Watch
  • 2y-fed funds spread > +55bp
  • 10Y breaks above 4.80%
  • No diplomatic backchannel news on hotspots
31% [n=83] Brier 0.304
Financial↗56%
WATCH-level bullish signals on SPY/XLF/XLE/NVDA (+1.5-2.1σ) with 7-day BULLISH_BIAS streak but contracting breadth momentum -9
2-day forecastSelective leadership in AI/energy/financials likely to continue over next 2 sessions if dispersion stays below 0.20 and VIX holds under 16; broad indices expected to lag on narrow participation.
Watch
  • NVDA holds +2σ level
  • Breadth momentum > -5
  • VIX remains below 16.0
33% [n=83] Brier 0.285
Commodity↗57%
ALERT on corn (+2.90σ) and WATCH on XLE with broad commodities +10.3% 30d amid ME/Ukraine hotspots sustaining energy/grains premia
2-day forecastCommodity strength likely to persist over next 2 sessions if crude holds above $90 and no orthogonal physical flow confirmation of de-escalation; corn expected to extend if China demand data supportive.
Watch
  • Crude above $90.50
  • Corn holds +2.5σ
  • No vol term structure steepening
35% [n=83] Brier 0.295
Currency→54%
Modest soft-dollar signals (USD/JPY -3.2% 5d) with stable EUR/USD and commodity currencies amid tightening rate expectations
2-day forecastSoft-dollar rotation likely to continue modestly over next 2 sessions if USD/JPY stays below 155 and rate differentials do not widen further; expect limited EM stress release.
Watch
  • USD/JPY < 155.5
  • EUR/USD holds above 1.155
  • Commodity currencies stable vs USD
27% [n=83] Brier 0.308
Crypto→85%
Mechanical silk_crypto rule at FLAT block with negative 20d USDC-vol corr (-0.213) and no boundary today
2-day forecastFLAT state expected to persist over next 2 sessions with no block boundary and correlation remaining negative; if boundary were hit, positive corr would be required to flip to LONG.
Watch
  • 20d corr stays < 0
  • No block boundary in window
  • BTC vol remains compressed
34% [n=83] Brier 0.252

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
Tightening expectations (+59bp 2y-fed funds) and escalating geo risk score keep yields elevated in normal curve regime
Financial↗
WATCH-level bullish signals on SPY/XLF/XLE/NVDA (+1.5-2.1σ) with 7-day BULLISH_BIAS streak but contracting breadth momentum -9
Commodity↗
ALERT on corn (+2.90σ) and WATCH on XLE with broad commodities +10.3% 30d amid ME/Ukraine hotspots sustaining energy/grains premia
Currency→
Modest soft-dollar signals (USD/JPY -3.2% 5d) with stable EUR/USD and commodity currencies amid tightening rate expectations
Crypto→
Mechanical silk_crypto rule at FLAT block with negative 20d USDC-vol corr (-0.213) and no boundary today

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
CORN * equity $20.07 $20.07 +2.90σ 252d alert LONG
NVDA * equity $230.36 $230.36 +2.06σ 252d alert LONG
XLF equity $58.10 $58.10 +1.78σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT * equity $509.31 $499.70 +1.66σ 252d watch LONG
XLE equity $61.90 $64.06 +1.63σ 252d watch LONG
SPY equity $770.19 $770.19 +1.53σ 252d watch LONG
FXY equity $58.89 $58.67 — — held HELD
GLD commodity $412.30 $406.77 — — held HELD
IWM equity $302.46 $296.01 — — held HELD
QQQ equity $717.39 $718.96 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.85 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.22 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$800 · 4d
exposure $47,141 · 5 positions · σ 8.2% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$208.73
Commodities
$124 · 4d
exposure $3,333 · 1 position · σ 17.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$44.68
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 44.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.05

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 escalating

Middle East proxy clashes and Ukrainian energy infrastructure strikes sustain oil and natgas premia with secondary FX safe-haven flows, yet orthogonal market signals (stable physical flows, compressed vol term structures) indicate limited cascade into broad rates or risk assets; diplomatic backchannels remain active.

Middle East medium

Iranian proxies intensify Red Sea and Gulf shipping harassment after Israeli operations in Lebanon

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USO
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russian drone and missile campaign targets remaining Ukrainian gas transit and power nodes

natgasoil
NG=F, TTF.1
horizon: 10d
East Asia low

PLA conducts large-scale naval and air drills encircling Taiwan

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPX
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Israel and Iran closing Strait of Hormuz for multiple weeks

Invalidate if: Visible progress in US-Iran indirect talks or Chinese mediation producing verifiable de-escalation and reopened shipping lanes

Hotspot calibration: 255/349 hits (73%), Brier 0.236 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-09-07

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+0.36; USDJPY=X: z=-3.13; CNY=X: z=-2.36
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
4/6 positive 21d (pct=0.67); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+10.1%, XLV:+4.3%, XLK:+1.1%, XLF:+0.5%, XLP:-0.6%, XLU:-0.7%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +0.62
credit_hy: latest=2.65, z=-0.94
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-09-07

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -6.05 | 3m -6.20 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.4% | 3m 24.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -38.3% | Max -39.5%
ENB
5.49 (assets: 33)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.71 | 3m -0.96 | 12m 3.94
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.0% | 3m 60.7% | 12m 62.9%
Drawdown
Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%
ENB
2.89 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -6.05 | 3m -6.20 | 12m 1.83
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.4% | 3m 24.9% | 12m 44.9%
Drawdown
Current -38.3% | Max -88.7%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (207d)138/31943% [38%-49%]+65.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/425% [5%-70%]-1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.52 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (215d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (215d)213/46146% [42%-51%]+47.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/425% [5%-70%]-1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.52 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.