The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-09-08 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗55%
10Y yields elevated at 4.78% with normal curve and tightening priced in (+59bp 2y-ff) amid stable geo risks
2-day forecastYields are likely to hold elevated or edge slightly higher over next 2 sessions if 2y-ff spread remains above +50bp and no soft CPI surprise prints
Watch
  • 2y-ff spread > +0.50%
  • 10Y real yield holds above 2.0%
  • No de-escalation rhetoric shifts expectations
31% [n=86] Brier 0.303
Financial↗56%
SPY at +1.53σ WATCH and NVDA at +2.06σ with narrow leadership and contracting breadth momentum -9
2-day forecastSelective equity grind higher is likely over next 2 sessions in AI/energy/quality if VIX stays below 16.5 and dispersion does not rise above 0.45
Watch
  • SPY holds above 765
  • NVDA above 228 with positive velocity
  • XLE/XLF maintain WATCH status
31% [n=86] Brier 0.286
Commodity↘65%
Corn at +2.90σ ALERT and crude +20% 30d at statistical extremes with stable geo risk score 0.38
2-day forecastMean reversion in grains and energy is likely over next 2 sessions with corn expected lower if no fresh supply disruption or China demand catalyst emerges
Watch
  • Corn below 525 on no news
  • Crude fails to hold $92.50
  • Stable futures curves confirm no escalation
34% [n=86] Brier 0.302
Currency↘54%
Softening USD bias (USDJPY -3.7% 5d) with stable commodity currencies and low geo risk
2-day forecastUSD is expected to stay soft over next 2 sessions supporting rotation if risk appetite holds and EURUSD remains above 1.155
Watch
  • USDJPY below 153.50
  • AUDUSD holds 0.715
  • No safe-haven bid from hotspots
26% [n=86] Brier 0.307
Crypto→90%
BTC 20d USDC-vol correlation -0.172 maintains mechanical FLAT block state with no boundary in next 2 days
2-day forecastFLAT state per correlation rule is expected to persist over next 2 sessions with no block boundary and correlation remaining negative
Watch
  • 20d corr stays <0
  • No 20-day block boundary fires
  • BTC holds above 76000 without vol spike
33% [n=86] Brier 0.255

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
10Y yields elevated at 4.78% with normal curve and tightening priced in (+59bp 2y-ff) amid stable geo risks
Financial↗
SPY at +1.53σ WATCH and NVDA at +2.06σ with narrow leadership and contracting breadth momentum -9
Commodity↘
Corn at +2.90σ ALERT and crude +20% 30d at statistical extremes with stable geo risk score 0.38
Currency↘
Softening USD bias (USDJPY -3.7% 5d) with stable commodity currencies and low geo risk
Crypto→
BTC 20d USDC-vol correlation -0.172 maintains mechanical FLAT block state with no boundary in next 2 days

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
CORN equity $20.07 $20.07 +2.90σ 252d alert LONG
NVDA equity $230.36 $230.36 +2.06σ 252d alert LONG
XLF equity $58.10 $58.10 +1.78σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT equity $509.31 $499.70 +1.66σ 252d watch LONG
XLE equity $61.90 $64.06 +1.63σ 252d watch LONG
SPY * equity $770.19 $770.19 +1.53σ 252d watch LONG
FXY equity $58.89 $59.40 — — held HELD
GLD commodity $412.30 $404.00 — — held HELD
IWM equity $302.46 $295.05 — — held HELD
QQQ equity $717.39 $719.00 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $8.04 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.22 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$782 · 4d
exposure $46,039 · 5 positions · σ 8.2% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$478.09
Commodities
$124 · 4d
exposure $3,333 · 1 position · σ 17.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$67.08
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 45.1% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$1.87

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Geopolitical tensions remain range-bound with primary transmission via energy supply nodes from Middle East and Eastern Europe; diplomatic signaling and stable futures curves point to contained 7-30 day volatility with clear de-escalation equilibria available to rational actors.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed groups conduct limited Red Sea shipping harassment amid stalled nuclear talks

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine frontline stalemate with periodic threats to European natgas transit

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
East Asia medium

Routine Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan with accompanying diplomatic rhetoric

risk_assetsfx
^IXIC, USDJPY=X
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk low severe

Closure of Strait of Hormuz following direct Iran-Israel exchange

Invalidate if: Renewed backchannel diplomacy or observable reduction in naval deployments within 14 days signals de-escalation equilibrium

Hotspot calibration: 256/353 hits (73%), Brier 0.235 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-09-08

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+0.14; USDJPY=X: z=-3.00; CNY=X: z=-2.27
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
4/6 positive 21d (pct=0.67); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+10.1%, XLV:+4.3%, XLK:+1.1%, XLF:+0.5%, XLP:-0.6%, XLU:-0.7%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +0.62
credit_hy: latest=2.65, z=-0.94
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-09-08

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -6.05 | 3m -6.20 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.4% | 3m 24.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -38.3% | Max -39.5%
ENB
5.49 (assets: 33)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.71 | 3m -0.96 | 12m 3.94
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.0% | 3m 60.7% | 12m 62.9%
Drawdown
Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%
ENB
2.89 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -6.05 | 3m -6.20 | 12m 1.83
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.4% | 3m 24.9% | 12m 44.9%
Drawdown
Current -38.3% | Max -88.7%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (207d)138/31943% [38%-49%]+65.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-4.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.52 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (216d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (216d)213/46146% [42%-51%]+47.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-4.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.52 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.