The Silk - 2026-09-10

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗55%

10Y at 4.84% with normal +103bp curve and tightening expectations (+18bp 2y-ff spread) set up for range-bound elevation under sticky reflation

2-day forecastYields likely to edge higher over next 2 sessions if commodity momentum persists, with 10Y expected to test 4.90 on any VIX hold above 16.5

Watch

10Y breaks above 4.90
2y-ff spread widens beyond +25bp
if VIX holds above 17 then yields +5bp

33% [n=88] Brier 0.301

Financial↗57%

Narrow leadership in NVDA (+1.61σ) and XLE (+1.81σ) vs SPX -1.4% 30d and IWM -1.64σ sets up for selective advances under thesis with VIX watch

2-day forecastEquities likely to grind selectively higher in AI/energy/quality over next 2 sessions if dispersion stays below 0.4 and VIX mean-reverts under 16.5

Watch

NVDA holds above 220
if VIX <16.5 then SPX >765
XLE momentum velocity > -0.05

31% [n=88] Brier 0.287

Commodity↗59%

CORN at +2.46σ ALERT after +21.7% 30d with crude +17.1% and broad +9.9% set up for sticky reflation continuation per base case

2-day forecastCommodities expected to remain firm over next 2 sessions with grains/energy holding gains if no de-escalation in hotspots, corn likely above 525

Watch

corn holds above 520
if crude >98 then broad comm index >19.8
no supply disruption news

34% [n=88] Brier 0.302

Currency↘54%

Softening USD (USDJPY -3.2% 30d) with stable EURUSD and commodity FX set up for continued rotation amid elevated yields and reflation

2-day forecastDollar likely to weaken modestly over next 2 sessions if risk sentiment holds without VIX spike, with EURUSD expected toward 1.165 if 10Y <4.90

Watch

USDJPY <153.5
if 10Y <4.80 then EURUSD >1.162
commodity currencies stable >0.71

25% [n=88] Brier 0.306

Crypto→90%

BTC with -0.028 20d USDC-vol corr and mechanical FLAT block state set up for no exposure until next boundary

2-day forecastFLAT block state expected to persist over next 2 sessions with no boundary hit, remaining FLAT independent of BTC moves until correlation resets positive

Watch

20d corr remains <0
no block boundary in window
BTC vol < expected range

33% [n=88] Brier 0.255

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗

10Y at 4.84% with normal +103bp curve and tightening expectations (+18bp 2y-ff spread) set up for range-bound elevation under sticky reflation

Financial↗

Narrow leadership in NVDA (+1.61σ) and XLE (+1.81σ) vs SPX -1.4% 30d and IWM -1.64σ sets up for selective advances under thesis with VIX watch

Commodity↗

CORN at +2.46σ ALERT after +21.7% 30d with crude +17.1% and broad +9.9% set up for sticky reflation continuation per base case

Currency↘

Softening USD (USDJPY -3.2% 30d) with stable EURUSD and commodity FX set up for continued rotation amid elevated yields and reflation

Crypto→

BTC with -0.028 20d USDC-vol corr and mechanical FLAT block state set up for no exposure until next boundary

Signals

0 Critical

1 Alert

4 Watch

Click row for details

Show held positions

Asset	Class	Entry	Current	Z-Score	Window	Level	Trade
CORN	equity	$19.83	$19.83	+2.46σ	252d	alert	LONG
XLE	equity	$61.90	$65.31	+1.81σ	252d	watch	LONG
IWM *	equity	$302.46	$290.64	-1.64σ	30d	watch	SHORT
NVDA	equity	$223.67	$223.67	+1.61σ	252d	watch	LONG
^VIX *	equity	$16.46	$16.46	+1.53σ	30d	watch	LONG
FXY	equity	$58.89	$59.49	—	—	held	HELD
GLD	commodity	$412.30	$402.17	—	—	held	HELD
MSFT	equity	$509.17	$491.44	—	—	held	HELD
QQQ	equity	$717.39	$714.06	—	—	held	HELD
AVAX-USD	crypto	$9.90	$7.76	—	—	held	HELD
ADA-USD	crypto	$0.27	$0.21	—	—	held	HELD

Risk

Core

$722 · 4d

exposure $42,268 · 5 positions · σ 8.2% annual (21d realized)

P&L +$753.20

Commodities

$109 · 4d

exposure $3,333 · 1 position · σ 15.7% annual (21d realized)

P&L -$81.87

Crypto

$1 · 4d

exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 35.9% annual (21d realized)

P&L -$2.15

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Middle East and Eastern European flashpoints show persistent rhetoric but muted transmission to energy and risk assets given high inventories, diversified LNG flows, and active diplomatic backchannels; second-order FX safe-haven flows remain the primary priced channel over next 7-30 days.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow war with proxy clashes and nuclear facility rhetoric

oilrisk_assets

CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X

horizon: 18d

Eastern Europe high

Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter

natgasrates

NG=F, CL=F

horizon: 30d

Asia-Pacific medium

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan and South China Sea incidents

fxrisk_assets

USDJPY=X, EURUSD=X

horizon: 10d

Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Israel and Iran closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: Public de-escalation statements from US, China, and Gulf states plus verifiable reduction in naval posturing

Hotspot calibration: 259/357 hits (73%), Brier 0.236 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral

Cash Flow 0 neutral

1/4 signals agreeing

CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5

CF-2 JPY carry direction -1.00

USDJPY=X: z21=-1.92

Income 0 neutral

2/5 signals agreeing

I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5

I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00

IWM/SPY: z21=-1.65

Balance Sheet 0 neutral

1/5 signals agreeing

B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6

B-5 MOVE index z-score -0.67

^MOVE: z21=+1.01

Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells

Pending signals (not in vote): B-6

V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL

Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10

Account paper

NAV$100,000

Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)

Drawdown+0.00%

As of2026-05-21

Sleeve	Target	Buffer	Admission cap
silk_commodity_etf	40%	+5pp	$27,000
silk_commodity_futures	40%	+5pp	$27,000
silk_crypto	20%	+5pp	$15,000
silk_equity	40%	+5pp	$27,000
silk_futures	10%	+5pp	$9,000

Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe

1m -4.44 | 3m -6.02 | 12m n/a

Rolling Volatility

1m 17.0% | 3m 24.6% | 12m n/a

Drawdown

Current -39.5% | Max -39.5%

ENB

5.45 (assets: 36)

Regime Probability

Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%

Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe

1m -2.71 | 3m -0.96 | 12m 3.94

Rolling Volatility

1m 38.0% | 3m 60.7% | 12m 62.9%

Drawdown

Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%

ENB

2.89 (assets: 13)

Regime Probability

Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%

Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe

1m -4.44 | 3m -6.02 | 12m 1.58

Rolling Volatility

1m 17.0% | 3m 24.6% | 12m 44.7%

Drawdown

Current -39.5% | Max -88.7%

ENB

1.00 (assets: 0)

Regime Probability

Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%

Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

Window	Wins/Total	Rate	Return	Stats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)	574/1292	44% [42%-47%]	+359.7%	Longs only
Out of Sample (211d)	142/329	43% [38%-49%]	+58.8%	Longs only
Recent (7d)	3/12	25% [9%-53%]	-8.5%	Longs only
OOS Sharpe	0.49 (annualized, trade-level)			Longs only

Commodity OOS

Window	Wins/Total	Rate	Return	Stats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)	2274/4959	46% [44%-47%]	+183.7%	Longs only
Out of Sample (218d)	75/142	53% [45%-61%]	+6.2%	Longs only
OOS Sharpe	0.51 (annualized, trade-level)			Longs only

Crypto OOS

Window	Wins/Total	Rate	Return	Stats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)	42/69	61% [49%-72%]	+821.2%	Longs only

Combined

Window	Wins/Total	Rate	Return	Stats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)	2890/6320	46% [45%-47%]	+226.7%	Longs only
Out of Sample (218d)	217/471	46% [42%-51%]	+42.9%	Longs only
Recent (7d)	3/12	25% [9%-53%]	-8.5%	Longs only
OOS Sharpe	0.49 (annualized, trade-level)			Longs only

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Market Situation

Signals ↻ Refresh prices

Risk

Geopolitical Risk

Finance View — Three Sheets

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Commodities

Crypto

Combined

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

Commodity OOS

Crypto OOS

Combined

Refresh prices

Signals