The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-09-11 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates→62%
Normal yield curve with tightening expectations and 10y at 4.94% set up for range-bound elevation under sticky reflation
2-day forecast10y yields are likely to hold elevated or edge modestly higher over next 2 sessions if 2y-ff spread remains >50bp, with mean-reversion pressure only if VIX fails to contract below 18.
Watch
  • 2y-ff spread holds >0.50%
  • 10y yield remains >4.80%
  • No NFP surprise <-150k
34% [n=89] Brier 0.300
Financial↗72%
VIX at +3.11σ extremes with IWM -2.28σ and XLE +1.73σ sets up for volatility mean reversion and selective equity stabilization
2-day forecastBroad equities likely to stabilize or rebound modestly over next 2 sessions if VIX contracts below 18, with narrow leadership in energy and quality names continuing to outperform IWM.
Watch
  • VIX closes <18.0
  • SPX holds above 750
  • XLE/SPX relative strength > prior close
30% [n=89] Brier 0.287
Commodity↗59%
CORN at +2.64σ and crude near $99 with broad comm +11.9% 30d in sticky reflation configuration
2-day forecastCommodities expected to show continued reflation bias over next 2 sessions if USD softens below 1.16 EURUSD and no China demand shock, with corn likely holding above 520.
Watch
  • CORN holds >520
  • Crude above 98.50
  • Broad comm index >20.00
35% [n=89] Brier 0.301
Currency↘57%
Softening USD with USDJPY -3.3% 30d and stable commodity currencies aligned to global non-crisis rotation
2-day forecastUSD is likely to remain soft or weaken further over next 2 sessions if risk appetite holds with positive BTC correlation and rate differentials favor non-USD blocks.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.162
  • USDJPY <153.50
  • Commodity currencies stable >0.71
25% [n=89] Brier 0.306
Crypto↗65%
BTC in LONG block since 2026-09-06 with +0.054 20d USDC-vol correlation
2-day forecastCurrent LONG state expected to persist over next 2 sessions with no block boundary and correlation sign remaining positive above zero.
Watch
  • 20d corr remains >0
  • No block boundary triggered
  • BTC holds above 76000
33% [n=89] Brier 0.254

Market Situation

Interest Rates→
Normal yield curve with tightening expectations and 10y at 4.94% set up for range-bound elevation under sticky reflation
Financial↗
VIX at +3.11σ extremes with IWM -2.28σ and XLE +1.73σ sets up for volatility mean reversion and selective equity stabilization
Commodity↗
CORN at +2.64σ and crude near $99 with broad comm +11.9% 30d in sticky reflation configuration
Currency↘
Softening USD with USDJPY -3.3% 30d and stable commodity currencies aligned to global non-crisis rotation
Crypto↗
BTC in LONG block since 2026-09-06 with +0.054 20d USDC-vol correlation

Signals

1 Critical
2 Alert
2 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^VIX equity $17.84 $17.84 +3.11σ 30d critical SHORT
CORN * equity $20.01 $20.01 +2.64σ 252d alert LONG
IWM equity $302.46 $287.70 -2.28σ 30d alert SHORT
XLF * equity $56.87 $56.87 -1.81σ 30d watch SHORT
XLE equity $61.90 $64.93 +1.73σ 252d watch LONG
FXY equity $58.89 $59.56 — — held HELD
GLD commodity $412.30 $397.15 — — held HELD
MSFT equity $509.10 $494.29 — — held HELD
QQQ equity $717.39 $712.85 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.33 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.20 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$718 · 4d
exposure $41,249 · 5 positions · σ 8.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$581.03
Commodities
$117 · 4d
exposure $3,333 · 1 position · σ 16.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$122.47
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 27.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.58

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Middle East proxy clashes and Indo-Pacific naval posturing transmit modestly into oil and safe-haven FX, yet second-order confirmation from futures curves and shipping data remains weak; diplomatic back-channels and reflexive signaling keep transmission coefficients low with clear de-escalation equilibria available.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed proxies intensify Red Sea and Iraqi strikes amid stalled nuclear talks

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russian winter energy coercion threats against EU amid Ukraine stalemate

natgasrates
NG=F, TLT
horizon: 30d
Indo-Pacific medium

Large-scale Chinese drills around Taiwan following US defense package

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, EURUSD=X
horizon: 14d
Top tail risk low severe

Closure of Strait of Hormuz after direct Iran-Israel exchange

Invalidate if: Visible de-escalation via Oman-brokered indirect talks or mutual force pullbacks confirmed by shipping data

Hotspot calibration: 263/361 hits (73%), Brier 0.235 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-09-11

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction -1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=-1.66
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-1.75
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-5 MOVE index z-score -1.00
^MOVE: z21=+2.39
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-09-11

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -4.68 | 3m -6.23 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.1% | 3m 24.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -40.6% | Max -40.6%
ENB
5.51 (assets: 36)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.71 | 3m -0.96 | 12m 3.94
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.0% | 3m 60.7% | 12m 62.9%
Drawdown
Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%
ENB
2.89 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -4.68 | 3m -6.23 | 12m 1.48
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.1% | 3m 24.6% | 12m 44.7%
Drawdown
Current -40.6% | Max -88.7%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (212d)142/33143% [38%-48%]+56.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)5/1338% [18%-64%]-5.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.48 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (219d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (219d)217/47346% [41%-50%]+41.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)5/1338% [18%-64%]-5.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.49 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.