The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-09-12 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗56%
Tightening priced into curve with yields elevated amid sticky commodity reflation and stable geo risk
2-day forecastYields likely to stabilize or edge higher over next 2 sessions if commodity strength persists and no de-escalation news emerges from Middle East/Eastern Europe; if 10y breaks 5.0% then acceleration toward 5.1% probable.
Watch
  • 10y yield >5.0%
  • 2y-fed funds spread widens >10bp
  • MOVE index >85
34% [n=89] Brier 0.300
Financial↗57%
High dispersion with WATCH signals in XLE/MSFT up and IWM down setting up for continued narrow leadership
2-day forecastSelective buying in energy and quality AI proxies like MSFT expected over next 2 sessions if VIX holds below 16.5 and breadth does not contract further; if IWM lags SPY by >0.5% then small-cap pressure continues.
Watch
  • XLE >+1.5σ
  • IWM underperforms SPY >0.5%
  • VIX <16.5
30% [n=89] Brier 0.287
Commodity↘65%
CORN at +2.47σ ALERT UP and crude at 30d highs setting up for short-term mean reversion within reflation regime
2-day forecastMild pullback in ags and broad commodities likely over next 2 sessions toward recent means if no geo escalation in hotspots, with crude expected lower if holds below $100; if CORN remains >+2σ then reflation continuation favored.
Watch
  • CORN reverts >1σ
  • crude <98.5
  • broad comm index -2%
35% [n=89] Brier 0.301
Currency↗54%
Soft dollar bias from rate differentials and commodity strength with stable geo risk limiting safe-haven bids
2-day forecastNon-dollar currencies likely to edge higher or stabilize over next 2 sessions if risk appetite holds and yields do not spike; if 10y yield >5.0% then mild dollar support probable on tightening expectations.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.162
  • USDJPY <153
  • DXY -0.5%
25% [n=89] Brier 0.306
Crypto→90%
Mechanical strategy in FLAT block with negative 20d USDC-BTC volume correlation at -0.051 and no boundary today
2-day forecastCurrent FLAT state expected to persist unchanged over next 2 sessions as block decisions fire only at 20-day boundaries; correlation would need to flip positive at next boundary to shift to LONG.
Watch
  • 20d corr >0 at boundary
  • BTC >2% 1d move
  • no block boundary in window
33% [n=89] Brier 0.254

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
Tightening priced into curve with yields elevated amid sticky commodity reflation and stable geo risk
Financial↗
High dispersion with WATCH signals in XLE/MSFT up and IWM down setting up for continued narrow leadership
Commodity↘
CORN at +2.47σ ALERT UP and crude at 30d highs setting up for short-term mean reversion within reflation regime
Currency↗
Soft dollar bias from rate differentials and commodity strength with stable geo risk limiting safe-haven bids
Crypto→
Mechanical strategy in FLAT block with negative 20d USDC-BTC volume correlation at -0.051 and no boundary today

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
CORN equity $19.92 $19.92 +2.47σ 252d alert LONG
IWM equity $302.46 $288.89 -1.89σ 30d watch SHORT
XLE equity $61.90 $65.14 +1.75σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT * equity $509.00 $495.63 +1.54σ 252d watch LONG
FXY equity $58.89 $59.68 — — held HELD
GLD commodity $412.30 $398.77 — — held HELD
QQQ equity $717.39 $714.88 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.43 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.21 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$745 · 4d
exposure $40,229 · 5 positions · σ 8.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$786.97
Commodities
$125 · 4d
exposure $3,333 · 1 position · σ 18.1% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$109.36
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 27.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.48

Geopolitical Risk

0.51 stable

Elevated state tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe maintain transmission risk to energy commodities and safe-haven FX, yet orthogonal market signals (flat term structure in oil vols, stable physical flows) indicate limited cascade so far; diplomatic channels and economic self-interest keep de-escalation as a live equilibrium.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow conflict and Houthi Red Sea shipping attacks

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine winter energy leverage and front-line pressure

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 10d
Indo-Pacific medium

Chinese military drills and increased Taiwan Strait activity

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X
horizon: 21d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct Iran-Israel strike cycle closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: US-China coordinated diplomacy yields verifiable de-escalation or ceasefire framework

Hotspot calibration: 266/364 hits (73%), Brier 0.235 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-09-12

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction -1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=-1.82
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-1.83
Balance Sheet −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.55, z=+2.71
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS-1) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-09-12

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.86 | 3m -5.13 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 25.4% | 3m 26.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -39.0% | Max -41.9%
ENB
5.59 (assets: 36)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 35% | High-Vol 15% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.71 | 3m -0.96 | 12m 3.94
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.0% | 3m 60.7% | 12m 62.9%
Drawdown
Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%
ENB
2.89 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.86 | 3m -5.13 | 12m 1.63
Rolling Volatility
1m 25.4% | 3m 26.9% | 12m 44.9%
Drawdown
Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (214d)144/33643% [38%-48%]+58.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/1030% [11%-60%]-5.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.48 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (220d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (220d)219/47846% [41%-50%]+42.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/1030% [11%-60%]-5.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.49 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.