The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-09-13 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗55%
10Y at 4.97% with tightening priced and normal 46bp curve in stable geo regime
2-day forecastYields likely to consolidate if no strong data widens 2y-fed funds spread beyond +0.59% over next 2 sessions, or edge higher on continued reflation signals.
Watch
  • 10Y breaks above 5.05%
  • 2y-fed funds spread widens >10bp
  • MOVE index rises above 83
34% [n=89] Brier 0.300
Financial↗56%
Narrow leadership with XLE +1.75σ and MSFT +1.54σ while IWM at -1.89σ extreme in low-dispersion setup
2-day forecastSelective equities likely to grind modestly higher if VIX mean-reverts below 15.5 and XLE continues to outperform IWM by at least 0.5% over next 2 sessions.
Watch
  • SPX holds above 760
  • XLE-IWM spread >0.5%
  • VIX closes below 15.5
30% [n=89] Brier 0.287
Commodity↗58%
CORN at +2.46σ ALERT with crude momentum +54 and broad commodities +10.1% 30d
2-day forecastCommodities expected to show mild continuation if crude holds above 98.5, though ALERT-level extreme raises mean-reversion risk on any de-escalation signals over 2 sessions.
Watch
  • Crude above 98.5
  • CORN holds above 505
  • No supply disruption news
35% [n=89] Brier 0.301
Currency↘54%
Soft dollar tone with USDJPY -3.6% 30d and stable risk appetite in tightening rate backdrop
2-day forecastDollar likely to weaken modestly if EURUSD holds above 1.155 and commodity currencies stabilize, provided no geo escalation over next 2 sessions.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.162
  • USDJPY breaks below 152.5
  • Commodity currencies flat to up
25% [n=89] Brier 0.306
Crypto↗72%
Mechanical LONG block (since 2026-09-06) with +0.193 20d USDC-BTC correlation
2-day forecastLONG state expected to persist with no block boundary in next 2 days; if correlation remains >0 then BTC risk appetite likely holds.
Watch
  • 20d corr stays positive
  • BTC above 76000
  • No block boundary crossed
33% [n=89] Brier 0.254

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
10Y at 4.97% with tightening priced and normal 46bp curve in stable geo regime
Financial↗
Narrow leadership with XLE +1.75σ and MSFT +1.54σ while IWM at -1.89σ extreme in low-dispersion setup
Commodity↗
CORN at +2.46σ ALERT with crude momentum +54 and broad commodities +10.1% 30d
Currency↘
Soft dollar tone with USDJPY -3.6% 30d and stable risk appetite in tightening rate backdrop
Crypto↗
Mechanical LONG block (since 2026-09-06) with +0.193 20d USDC-BTC correlation

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
CORN equity $19.92 $19.92 +2.46σ 252d alert LONG
IWM equity $302.46 $288.89 -1.89σ 30d watch SHORT
XLE * equity $61.90 $65.14 +1.75σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT equity $509.00 $495.63 +1.54σ 252d watch LONG
FXY equity $58.89 $59.68 — — held HELD
GLD commodity $412.30 $398.77 — — held HELD
QQQ equity $717.39 $714.88 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.32 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.20 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$745 · 4d
exposure $40,229 · 5 positions · σ 8.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$786.97
Commodities
$125 · 4d
exposure $3,333 · 1 position · σ 18.1% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$109.36
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 27.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.59

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Middle East and Eastern European state tensions show persistent but low-coupling transmission mainly into energy nodes; orthogonal tape confirmation is weak, with actor reflexivity and open diplomatic channels supporting de-escalation equilibria over the 7-30 day horizon.

Persian Gulf medium

Iranian naval drills and nuclear posturing near Strait of Hormuz

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russian incremental advances in Ukraine coupled with winter gas flow threats

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
East Asia low

Chinese live-fire drills around Taiwan with US freedom-of-navigation response

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Hormuz for 7+ days

Invalidate if: Visible progress in US-China mediated indirect talks or mutual pull-back of naval assets

Hotspot calibration: 270/369 hits (73%), Brier 0.236 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-09-13

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction -1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=-1.82
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-1.83
Balance Sheet −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.55, z=+2.71
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS-1) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-09-13

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.76 | 3m -6.22 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.1% | 3m 24.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -41.1% | Max -41.3%
ENB
5.53 (assets: 36)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.71 | 3m -0.96 | 12m 3.94
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.0% | 3m 60.7% | 12m 62.9%
Drawdown
Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%
ENB
2.89 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.76 | 3m -6.22 | 12m 1.56
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.1% | 3m 24.5% | 12m 44.6%
Drawdown
Current -41.1% | Max -88.7%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (214d)144/33643% [38%-48%]+60.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/838% [14%-69%]-6.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.49 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (221d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (221d)219/47846% [41%-50%]+44.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/838% [14%-69%]-6.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.50 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.