The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-09-14 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗55%
Normal curve at 106bp with tightening expectations after 4-6% yield rise set up for continuation
2-day forecastYields likely to edge higher over next 2 sessions on persistent tightening if 2y-fed funds spread widens beyond 60bp, expect 10Y to test 5.05%
Watch
  • 2y-fed funds spread >60bp
  • VIX holds above 17.5
  • 10Y breaks 5.0%
34% [n=90] Brier 0.299
Financial↘57%
Mixed indices with IWM -1.89σ DOWN and XLE +1.75σ UP showing energy rotation amid VIX momentum
2-day forecastBroad equities likely to drift lower over next 2 sessions if breadth momentum stays below -5, with small caps underperforming on rising yields
Watch
  • direction ratio <0.70
  • VIX >18
  • IWM breaks below 285
31% [n=90] Brier 0.286
Commodity↘72%
CORN at +2.45σ ALERT UP after +18% 30d with crude leading but metals weak
2-day forecastMean reversion expected on ag/energy extremes with prices likely to pull back over next 2 sessions if no geopolitical escalation, corn below 520 triggers faster decline
Watch
  • corn <520
  • crude fails to hold 102
  • no supply disruption news
34% [n=90] Brier 0.301
Currency→62%
Major pairs stable near recent levels with rate differentials supporting mild USD tone
2-day forecastPairs likely to remain rangebound over next 2 sessions with slight USD bias if 10Y yield rises, EURUSD to test 1.155 if yield spread widens 5bp
Watch
  • 10Y yield >4.95%
  • USDCNY holds below 6.72
  • no ECB divergence
24% [n=90] Brier 0.306
Crypto↗56%
BTC in LONG block (since 2026-09-06) with +0.180 20d USDC-vol corr and no boundary today
2-day forecastLONG state expected to persist over next 2 sessions with mild positive drift if 20d correlation remains >0 and no block boundary triggers
Watch
  • 20d corr >0
  • BTC holds above 76000
  • no block boundary
32% [n=90] Brier 0.254

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
Normal curve at 106bp with tightening expectations after 4-6% yield rise set up for continuation
Financial↘
Mixed indices with IWM -1.89σ DOWN and XLE +1.75σ UP showing energy rotation amid VIX momentum
Commodity↘
CORN at +2.45σ ALERT UP after +18% 30d with crude leading but metals weak
Currency→
Major pairs stable near recent levels with rate differentials supporting mild USD tone
Crypto↗
BTC in LONG block (since 2026-09-06) with +0.180 20d USDC-vol corr and no boundary today

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
CORN equity $19.92 $19.92 +2.45σ 252d alert LONG
IWM * equity $302.46 $288.89 -1.89σ 30d watch SHORT
XLE equity $61.90 $65.14 +1.75σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT equity $509.00 $495.63 +1.55σ 252d watch LONG
FXY equity $58.89 $59.34 — — held HELD
GLD commodity $412.30 $393.78 — — held HELD
QQQ equity $717.39 $704.27 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.37 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.21 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$745 · 4d
exposure $40,229 · 5 positions · σ 8.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$871.65
Commodities
$125 · 4d
exposure $3,333 · 1 position · σ 18.1% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$149.70
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.54

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Mid-September 2026 geopolitical risk is contained with active backchannel diplomacy offsetting flashpoints in the Middle East and Eastern Europe; primary transmission is via energy channels with muted second-order effects on rates and risk assets as orthogonal market data shows limited corroboration of escalation.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy clashes via Hezbollah in Lebanon with limited direct strikes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, BZ=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine attrition with winter energy supply rhetoric

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
East Asia low

Chinese naval patrols and drills near Taiwan Strait

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, USDCNH=X
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: Observable de-escalation via multilateral backchannels, restraint in official statements, and stable physical oil flows

Hotspot calibration: 272/371 hits (73%), Brier 0.236 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-09-14

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction -0.89
USDJPY=X: z21=-1.34
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-1.83
Balance Sheet −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.55, z=+2.71
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS-1) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-09-14

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.76 | 3m -6.22 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.1% | 3m 24.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -41.1% | Max -41.3%
ENB
5.53 (assets: 36)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.71 | 3m -0.96 | 12m 3.94
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.0% | 3m 60.7% | 12m 62.9%
Drawdown
Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%
ENB
2.89 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.76 | 3m -6.22 | 12m 1.56
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.1% | 3m 24.5% | 12m 44.6%
Drawdown
Current -41.1% | Max -88.7%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (214d)144/33643% [38%-48%]+60.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/743% [16%-75%]+0.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.49 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (222d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (222d)219/47846% [41%-50%]+44.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/743% [16%-75%]+0.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.50 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.