The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-09-18 04:32 · v1.0
WIDE CONFIDENCE
Interest RatesFinancial XLF 2.6σ alert p=60%Commodity CORN 2.2σ alert p=52%CurrencyCryptoFinancial → Interest Rates 2.6σ alert p=51%Interest RatesFinancial XLF 2.6σ alert p=60%Commodity CORN 2.2σ alert p=52%CurrencyCryptoRatesFinCmdFXCry
  • Interest Rates↗Expect the 10Y to grind modestly higher toward 4.7-4.8% over 20 sessions as tightening expectations hold and real yields stay elevated.
  • Financial↗OLSExpect a mean-reversion bounce in financials and small-caps over 20 sessions, but breadth erosion (-32pp/7d) caps upside and skews the index range to the downside.
  • Commodity↗Expect agricultural strength (corn) to partly mean-revert while energy stabilizes, leaving broad commodities choppy-to-firm over 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗Expect the dollar to hold firm-to-slightly-higher over 20 sessions on rate differentials, though OLS UUP -0.5% signals limited follow-through.
  • Crypto↗OLSExpect the FLAT block to persist through the next 20 sessions unless a boundary falls inside the window and the correlation sign flips positive.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial spoke 2.6σ alert p=60% · DS 82% CT 56%
  • Commodity spoke 2.2σ alert p=52% · DS 73% CT 56%
  • Financial → Interest Rates chord 2.6σ alert p=51% · DS 82% CT 56%

Signals

0 Critical
3 Alert
2 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
XLF equity $55.88 $55.88 -2.60σ 30d alert SHORT
CORN equity $19.83 $19.83 +2.16σ 252d alert LONG
IWM * equity $302.46 $285.43 -2.05σ 60d alert SHORT
XLE equity $61.90 $64.48 +1.57σ 252d watch LONG
MSFT * equity $508.94 $497.75 +1.56σ 252d watch LONG
FXY equity $58.89 $58.13 — — held HELD
GLD commodity $412.30 $401.49 — — held HELD
QQQ equity $717.39 $719.59 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $7.96 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.21 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$706 · 4d
exposure $36,157 · 5 positions · σ 9.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$288.36
Commodities
$129 · 4d
exposure $3,333 · 1 position · σ 18.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$87.41
Crypto
$1 · 20d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 27.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$1.95

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Core flashpoints in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and East Asia show contained transmission with muted second-order effects on oil, natgas, and safe-haven FX; markets price low coupling to risk assets amid diversified supply and ongoing diplomacy.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy friction with sporadic Red Sea incidents

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Ukraine front-line stalemate with winter natgas storage concerns

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 30d
East Asia low

Routine PLA drills near Taiwan with limited airspace incursions

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 10d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct Iran-Israel strike cycle closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: Backchannel US-China diplomacy yields verifiable de-escalation commitments from Tehran and Jerusalem

Hotspot calibration: 283/387 hits (73%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-09-18

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth -0.52
AUDUSD=X: +0.05%; CADUSD=X: -1.40%; NZDUSD=X: -3.75%; BRLUSD=X: +0.93%
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-1.63
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.68, z=+2.26
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-09-18

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.15 | 3m -5.25 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.7% | 3m 24.8% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -45.8% | Max -45.8%
ENB
5.36 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.71 | 3m -0.96 | 12m 3.94
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.0% | 3m 60.7% | 12m 62.9%
Drawdown
Current -39.0% | Max -88.7%
ENB
2.89 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.15 | 3m -5.25 | 12m 0.92
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.7% | 3m 24.8% | 12m 43.2%
Drawdown
Current -45.8% | Max -88.7%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (220d)147/34143% [38%-48%]+47.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/650% [19%-81%]-8.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.43 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (226d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2890/632046% [45%-47%]+226.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (226d)222/48346% [42%-50%]+35.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/650% [19%-81%]-8.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.45 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.