The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-09-22 09:07 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest RatesFinancial TSM 2.5σ alertCommodityCurrencyCryptoInterest RatesFinancial TSM 2.5σ alertCommodityCurrencyCryptoRatesFinCmdFXCry
  • Interest Rates↗Interest rates are expected to grind modestly higher over the next 20 sessions as tightening bias and OLS prior hold.
  • Financial↗Financial markets are forecast to edge higher over the next 20 sessions led by tech momentum despite small-cap pressure at extremes.
  • Commodity↘Commodities are expected to mean-revert from current 2σ+ extremes with corn and overextended names pulling back over 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗The USD is likely to post mild gains over the next 20 sessions as rate differentials provide support despite OLS prior.
  • Crypto↗The current LONG crypto block is expected to persist through the 20-session horizon ahead of the next correlation boundary.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial spoke 2.5σ alert · DS 80% CT 56%

Signals

0 Critical
3 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
CORN equity $20.27 $20.27 +2.59σ 252d alert LONG
TSM equity $445.14 $445.14 +2.51σ 30d alert LONG
SMH * equity $596.03 $596.03 +2.05σ 30d alert LONG
IWM equity $285.58 $285.58 -1.81σ 60d watch SHORT
XLF equity $55.90 $55.90 -1.78σ 30d watch SHORT
MSFT * equity $501.61 $501.61 +1.64σ 252d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Middle East proxy clashes and Ukraine winter-energy posturing transmit primarily into oil and European natgas with secondary USD and risk-premia ripples; independent flows and muted vol term structures indicate contained coupling so far, with explicit diplomatic off-ramps priced at ~40% probability.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed militia strikes on Gulf shipping and Israeli energy-adjacent targets

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, SPX
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russian incremental gains raise European storage refill concerns ahead of winter

natgasfxrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X, ZN=F
horizon: 30d
Indo-Pacific low

Chinese naval patrols and Taiwan air incursions spike regional risk premium

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, NKY
horizon: 10d
Top tail risk medium high

Ukrainian deep strike triggers Russian energy-infrastructure retaliation and European gas rationing

Invalidate if: Observable NATO-Russia de-escalation signals or rapid progress toward winter truce framework

Hotspot calibration: 293/399 hits (73%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-09-22

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/3 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth -0.86
AUDUSD=X: -0.98%; CADUSD=X: -1.99%; NZDUSD=X: -4.38%; BRLUSD=X: +0.45%
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-1.69
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.68, z=+1.79
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-09-22

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: fixed-notional (default) Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.77 | 3m -5.44 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.7% | 3m 23.1% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -42.0% | Max -42.0%
ENB
4.93 (assets: 36)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.77 | 3m -5.44 | 12m 1.23
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.7% | 3m 23.1% | 12m 43.0%
Drawdown
Current -42.0% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (218d)147/34243% [38%-48%]+54.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/10% [0%-79%]-2.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.46 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (223d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (223d)222/48446% [41%-50%]+40.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/10% [0%-79%]-2.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.46 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.