The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-09-23 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest RatesFinancial TSM 2.5σ alertCommodityCurrencyCryptoFinancial → Crypto 2.5σ alert p=55%Financial → Interest Rates 2.5σ alert p=49%Interest RatesFinancial TSM 2.5σ alertCommodityCurrencyCryptoRatesFinCmdFXCry
  • Interest Rates↗Yields are likely to edge modestly higher over the next 20 sessions as OLS prior and tightening bias persist in stable regime.
  • Financial↗Broad equities are expected to post net gains over the next 20 sessions via sector rotation and VIX compression despite small-cap lag.
  • Commodity↘Commodity complex is likely to mean-revert lower over the next 20 sessions as calibrated reversion on grains and metals dominates.
  • Currency↘USD strength is expected to fade over the next 20 sessions as the ALERT signal reverts in line with 80% base rate.
  • Crypto↗The LONG block is expected to persist until the next 20-day boundary as positive correlation shows no sign of flipping.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial spoke 2.5σ alert · DS 80% CT 56%
  • Financial → Crypto chord 2.5σ alert p=55% · DS 80% CT 56%
  • Financial → Interest Rates chord 2.5σ alert p=49% · DS 80% CT 56%

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
CORN equity $20.27 $20.27 +2.59σ 252d alert LONG
TSM equity $445.14 $445.14 +2.51σ 30d alert LONG
UUP * equity $28.48 $28.48 +2.38σ 30d alert LONG
SMH equity $596.03 $596.03 +2.05σ 30d alert LONG
IWM equity $285.58 $285.58 -1.81σ 60d watch SHORT
XLF equity $55.90 $55.90 -1.78σ 30d watch SHORT
MSFT equity $501.61 $501.61 +1.64σ 252d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.47 stable

Persistent hotspots in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Taiwan Strait show limited market transmission due to ample energy buffers, diversified LNG routes, and ongoing backchannel diplomacy; risk assets remain supported with contained safe-haven flows. De-escalation equilibria remain viable via multilateral talks and actor reflexivity watching price reactions.

Persian Gulf medium

Iran-Israel proxy clashes and rhetoric over Hormuz transit with no direct infrastructure hits

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe medium

Ukraine winter stalemate with limited Russian strikes on energy infrastructure amid talks

natgasrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 30d
East Asia low

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan with US diplomatic pushback but no blockade

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPX
horizon: 12d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic strikes on Persian Gulf energy facilities triggering supply shock

Invalidate if: Mutual de-escalation signals via US-China facilitated talks or verified stand-down of proxy forces

Hotspot calibration: 295/403 hits (73%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-09-23

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/3 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth -0.81
AUDUSD=X: -1.16%; CADUSD=X: -1.76%; NZDUSD=X: -4.52%; BRLUSD=X: +0.97%
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-2.12
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.77
real_yield_10y: latest=2.62, z=+1.15
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-09-23

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: fixed-notional (default) Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.34 | 3m -4.91 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.0% | 3m 22.8% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -41.6% | Max -42.0%
ENB
5.29 (assets: 36)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.34 | 3m -4.91 | 12m 1.24
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.0% | 3m 22.8% | 12m 43.0%
Drawdown
Current -41.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (219d)149/34543% [38%-48%]+53.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/10% [0%-79%]-2.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.46 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (223d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (223d)224/48746% [42%-50%]+39.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/10% [0%-79%]-2.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.46 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.