The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-09-26 06:29 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest RatesFinancial MSFT 2.1σ alertCommodityCurrencyCryptoRatesFinancialCommodityFXCrypto
  • Interest Rates↗Yields are likely to extend higher over the next 20 sessions as OLS prior and data support continued tightening bias.
  • Financial↗Small caps are expected to mean-revert higher from extremes while overall financials grind modestly higher over 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↘Overextended commodities like natgas are likely to mean revert lower over the next 20 sessions as base rates favor reversion.
  • Currency↘USD strength via UUP is expected to revert lower over the next 20 sessions on WATCH signal base rates.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.40 — The current LONG block is expected to persist until the next boundary as positive correlation holds without sign flip.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial signal 2.1σ alert · DS 73% CT 56%

Signals

0 Critical
0 Alert
0 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Core flashpoints in the Middle East and Eastern Europe show contained transmission to energy and safe-haven channels, with strategic reflexivity limiting direct supply shocks. Diplomatic backchannels and ample inventory buffers support a stable regime, though second-order FX and rates effects warrant monitoring.

Middle East medium

Iran proxy strikes on Iraqi and Red Sea targets without direct state escalation

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F, SPX
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Attrition phase in Ukraine with targeted energy infrastructure risks ahead of winter

natgasrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X, TLT
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific low

Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan Strait amid ongoing tech export controls

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, AAPL, TSM
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

Russian tactical strike on Ukrainian LNG terminal triggering European winter energy crisis

Invalidate if: Renewed Minsk-style negotiations or verified large-scale gas rerouting via non-Russian routes materializes

Hotspot calibration: 304/412 hits (74%), Brier 0.232 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-09-26

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/3 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth -1.00
AUDUSD=X: -2.35%; CADUSD=X: -2.05%; NZDUSD=X: -4.97%; BRLUSD=X: -0.76%
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-1.83
Balance Sheet −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.80, z=+2.59
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS-1) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-09-26

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: fixed-notional (default) Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.69 | 3m -5.83 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 14.0% | 3m 19.0% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -39.7% | Max -42.0%
ENB
7.24 (assets: 39)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 44% | High-Vol 6% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.69 | 3m -5.83 | 12m 1.22
Rolling Volatility
1m 14.0% | 3m 19.0% | 12m 42.8%
Drawdown
Current -39.7% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (222d)152/35043% [38%-49%]+57.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/520% [4%-62%]-4.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.48 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (223d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (21d)1/1100% [21%-100%]+5.4%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (223d)228/49346% [42%-51%]+42.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/520% [4%-62%]-4.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.48 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.