The Silk Risk Dashboard
2026-10-08 04:33 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
- Interest Rates↗Yields are likely to remain elevated or push modestly higher over the next 20 sessions as firm nominal activity anchors expectations.
- Financial↗Narrow leadership in AI and quality names is expected to continue supporting modest index gains while cyclicals lag over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity→Commodities are likely to stabilize with energy selective strength but industrial metals mean-reverting lower amid USD firmness.
- Currency↗USD strength is expected to persist over the next 20 sessions supported by rate differentials and safe-haven flows.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.11 — The LONG block is expected to persist until the next boundary as long as the correlation sign remains positive.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
- Financial signal 2.3σ alert p=67% · DS 75% CT 56%
- Commodity signal 1.7σ watch · DS 63% CT 53%
- Financial → Commodity chord 2.3σ alert p=55% · DS 75% CT 56%
Signals
0
Critical
0
Alert
0
Watch
Click row for details
| Asset | Class | Entry | Current | Z-Score | Window | Level | Trade |
|---|
Risk
Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions
Geopolitical Risk
0.52 stable
Middle East proxy clashes and Indo-Pacific naval posturing transmit primarily into oil and safe-haven bids with secondary FX hedging flows, yet orthogonal market data show contained cascades and no sustained vol expansion. Multiple independent diplomatic channels and actor reflexivity point to de-escalation equilibria that cap risk premia over the 7-30 day window.
Middle East medium
Iran-backed proxy strikes on Gulf shipping following Israeli operations
oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high
Russian winter energy leverage amid stalled Ukraine frontlines
natgasrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific low
PLA live-fire drills encircling Taiwan with US carrier response
fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPX
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe
Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz for 5+ days
Invalidate if: Iran accepts Oman-brokered restraint agreement (de-escalation equilibrium)
Hotspot calibration: 321/433 hits (74%), Brier 0.231 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels
Finance View — Three Sheets
Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth -1.00
AUDUSD=X: -3.86%; CADUSD=X: -3.47%; NZDUSD=X: -4.67%; BRLUSD=X: +1.63%
Income 0 neutral
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-1.89
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.73
real_yield_10y: latest=2.91, z=+1.09
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See
docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md. Sleeve Ledger — Money Management
MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
Account paper
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
| Sleeve | Target | Buffer | Admission cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| silk_commodity_etf | 40% | +5pp | $27,000 |
| silk_commodity_futures | 40% | +5pp | $27,000 |
| silk_crypto | 20% | +5pp | $15,000 |
| silk_equity | 40% | +5pp | $27,000 |
| silk_futures | 10% | +5pp | $9,000 |
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)
MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.
Metrics
Core (Equity)
Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.29 | 3m -4.35 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 13.2% | 3m 22.4% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -41.2% | Max -42.0%
ENB
5.32 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 45% | High-Vol 5% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Commodities
Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Crypto
No backtest summary available.
Combined
Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.29 | 3m -4.35 | 12m 1.11
Rolling Volatility
1m 13.2% | 3m 22.4% | 12m 42.8%
Drawdown
Current -41.2% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Performance Scorecard
Core Forecast
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (522d) | 416/957 | 43% [40%-47%] | +328.5% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (221d) | 152/348 | 44% [39%-49%] | +60.2% | Longs only |
| Recent (7d) | 2/4 | 50% [15%-85%] | -0.2% | Longs only |
| OOS Sharpe | 0.49 (annualized, trade-level) | Longs only | ||
Commodity OOS
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (2089d) | 2274/4959 | 46% [44%-47%] | +183.7% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (223d) | 75/142 | 53% [45%-61%] | +6.2% | Longs only |
Crypto OOS
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (2396d) | 42/69 | 61% [49%-72%] | +821.2% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (32d) | 1/1 | 100% [21%-100%] | +5.7% | Longs only |
Combined
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (2396d) | 2732/5985 | 46% [44%-47%] | +214.2% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (223d) | 228/491 | 46% [42%-51%] | +44.5% | Longs only |
| Recent (7d) | 2/4 | 50% [15%-85%] | -0.2% | Longs only |
| OOS Sharpe | 0.49 (annualized, trade-level) | Longs only | ||