The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-14 04:33 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest RatesFinancial MSFT 2.2σ alert p=65%Commodity ALB 1.9σ watchCurrencyCryptoRates ↑Financial ↑Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto ↑Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗Rates are expected to hold elevated or edge higher over next 20 sessions.
  • Financial↗Indices are likely to grind modestly higher with mean reversion in stretched names.
  • Commodity↗Commodities are expected to mean-revert with recovery in oversold ag and metals.
  • Currency↗USD is likely to stay firm against majors over the next 20 sessions.
  • Crypto↗OLS20d corr -0.33 — FLAT block is expected to persist until next boundary with no positive corr flip.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial signal 2.2σ alert p=65% · DS 75% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 1.9σ watch · DS 68% CT 53%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
REMX -2.26σ down alert, ALB -1.92σ; weakening
Energies→
NG +1.78σ up, URA -1.87σ down; mixed
Ags↘
Corn -2.07σ down alert, wheat -1.54σ; ag down
Softs↗
Sugar +3.21σ up critical; softs rallying

Commodity Currencies

AUD↘
AUD z30=-0.59 weakening vs USD
CAD↘
CAD z30=-0.87 weakening vs USD
NZD→
NZD no z-score data
BRL↗
BRL z30=+1.32 strengthening vs USD

Signals

1 Critical
2 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SB=F * commodity $20.85 $20.85 +3.21σ 252d critical SHORT
REMX commodity $58.18 $58.18 -2.26σ 252d alert SHORT
ZC=F commodity $483.00 $483.00 -2.07σ 30d alert SHORT
ALB commodity $98.51 $98.51 -1.92σ 252d watch SHORT
URA commodity $37.72 $37.72 -1.87σ 252d watch SHORT
NG=F commodity $3.17 $3.17 +1.78σ 60d watch LONG
PDBC * commodity $19.86 $19.86 +1.59σ 252d watch LONG
ZS=F commodity $1,287.75 $1,287.75 +1.56σ 252d watch LONG
ZW=F commodity $672.25 $672.25 -1.54σ 30d watch SHORT

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Persistent but contained state tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe transmit primarily to energy commodities via supply disruption fears, with secondary safe-haven flows into gold and JPY; Indo-Pacific posturing adds mild FX and risk-premia pressure, yet orthogonal tape confirmation remains weak and multiple diplomatic channels keep escalation cones narrow.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy clashes with threats to Gulf shipping lanes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 10d
Indo-Pacific medium

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan amid US arms sales

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 21d
Top tail risk low severe

Strait of Hormuz partial closure from direct Iran-Israel exchange

Invalidate if: Multilateral talks produce verifiable de-escalation agreement or sanctions relief

Hotspot calibration: 328/440 hits (75%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-14

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth -0.80
AUDUSD=X: -2.74%; CADUSD=X: -2.89%; NZDUSD=X: -3.87%; BRLUSD=X: +3.07%
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-1.58
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -0.60
credit_hy: latest=3.11, z=+0.89
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-14

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.21 | 3m -2.42 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.5% | 3m 18.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -41.7% | Max -48.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 40)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.21 | 3m -2.42 | 12m -0.88
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.5% | 3m 18.9% | 12m 33.3%
Drawdown
Current -41.7% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (244d)171/37146% [41%-51%]+68.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-12.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.49 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-11

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (252d)347/64354% [50%-58%]+61.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.70 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-06 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (1 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (38d)1/1100% [21%-100%]+5.7%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (252d)519/101551% [48%-54%]+64.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-12.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.62 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.