The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-16 04:32 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Financial → Commodity 2.4σ alert p=48%Interest RatesFinancial XLE 2.4σ alert p=62%Commodity ALB 1.9σ watchCurrencyCryptoRates ↑Financial ↑Commodity ↓Currency ↑Crypto →Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗Rates are likely to rise modestly over the next 20 sessions as data supports tightening expectations.
  • Financial↗Large-cap leaders are expected to see continued selective strength but with elevated mean-reversion risk.
  • Commodity↘Commodities are likely to mean-revert lower overall as stable geo risks cap energy upside.
  • Currency↗USD is expected to strengthen modestly versus majors as rate differentials persist.
  • Crypto→20d corr -0.38 — The FLAT block is expected to persist until the next boundary as correlation stays negative.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial signal 2.4σ alert p=62% · DS 78% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 1.9σ watch · DS 68% CT 53%
  • Financial → Commodity chord 2.4σ alert p=48% · DS 78% CT 56%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
Silver -2.48σ/30d & REMX -2.37σ alerts down
Energies→
Uranium -2.34σ/60d alert down, NG +1.76σ up
Ags→
Corn -1.82σ/30d watch down
Softs↗
Sugar +3.01σ/252d critical up

Commodity Currencies

AUD↘
AUD -0.89σ/30d weakening vs USD
CAD↘
CAD -0.44σ/30d weakening vs USD
NZD→
NZD no data available
BRL↗
BRL +0.43σ strengthening vs USD

Signals

1 Critical
3 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SB=F * commodity $20.84 $20.84 +3.01σ 252d critical SHORT
SI=F commodity $55.55 $55.55 -2.48σ 30d alert SHORT
REMX * commodity $55.78 $55.78 -2.37σ 252d alert SHORT
URA * commodity $35.54 $35.54 -2.34σ 60d alert SHORT
ALB commodity $97.97 $97.97 -1.89σ 252d watch SHORT
ZC=F * commodity $480.75 $480.75 -1.82σ 30d watch SHORT
NG=F * commodity $3.20 $3.20 +1.76σ 60d watch LONG
PDBC commodity $19.86 $19.86 +1.56σ 252d watch LONG
GC=F commodity $4,107.90 $4,107.90 -1.54σ 30d watch SHORT

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Middle East proxy frictions and Eastern European energy posturing show contained transmission primarily into oil and natgas curves, while East Asian naval posturing has limited FX spillover; diplomatic backchannels and ample global inventories anchor risk premia with de-escalation equilibria priced as the base case.

Middle East medium

Fragile Israel-Hezbollah truce with intermittent proxy incidents

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russian winter gas flow adjustments amid Ukraine stalemate

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
East Asia low

Routine PLA drills near Taiwan with US freedom-of-navigation response

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, USDCNH=X
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk low severe

Strait of Hormuz disruption from direct Iran-Israel exchange

Invalidate if: Successful US-China coordinated diplomacy or verifiable ceasefire implementation triggers rapid de-escalation

Hotspot calibration: 330/442 hits (75%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-16

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -0.61
7d net (n=5): $-1.84B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.83
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -0.89
credit_hy: latest=3.25, z=+1.34
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-16

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 6.78 | 3m -2.23 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.2% | 3m 18.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -41.1% | Max -48.1%
ENB
7.62 (assets: 41)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 6.78 | 3m -2.23 | 12m -0.81
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.2% | 3m 18.9% | 12m 33.0%
Drawdown
Current -41.1% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (246d)170/37146% [41%-51%]+67.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-8.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.49 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-13

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (254d)349/64654% [50%-58%]+63.0%Longs only
Recent (8d)2/367% [21%-94%]+1.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.71 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-06 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (1 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (40d)1/1100% [21%-100%]+5.7%Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (254d)520/101851% [48%-54%]+64.4%Longs only
Recent (8d)4/1136% [15%-65%]-6.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.63 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.