The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-17 04:32 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Financial → Commodity 2.3σ alert p=45%Interest RatesFinancial XLE 2.3σ alert p=65%Commodity ALB 1.9σ watchCurrencyCryptoRates ↑Financial ↓Commodity ↑Currency →Crypto →Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗Treasury yields are expected to grind modestly higher over the next 20 sessions as cuts are priced out.
  • Financial↘Financial markets are expected to see continued volatility with modest net downside as bearish breadth persists.
  • Commodity↗Commodities are expected to post modest net gains led by energy as supply signals outweigh de-escalation paths.
  • Currency→Currency markets are expected to remain range-bound with no material central-bank divergence.
  • Crypto→20d corr -0.27 — The FLAT BTC block is expected to persist until the next 20-day boundary as correlation stays negative.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial signal 2.3σ alert p=65% · DS 76% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 1.9σ watch · DS 68% CT 53%
  • Financial → Commodity chord 2.3σ alert p=45% · DS 76% CT 56%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
Silver -2.48σ/30d down alert, broad metals weak
Energies→
Uranium -2.34σ/60d down alert, NG +1.76σ up
Ags→
Corn -1.82σ/30d down at watch
Softs↗
Sugar +3.00σ/252d up at alert

Commodity Currencies

AUD↘
AUD z30=-0.85 weakening vs USD
CAD↘
CAD z30=-0.83 weakening vs USD
NZD→
NZD no z-score data
BRL↗
BRL z30=+0.84 strengthening vs USD

Signals

1 Critical
3 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SB=F commodity $20.84 $20.84 +3.00σ 252d critical LONG
SI=F commodity $55.55 $55.55 -2.48σ 30d alert SHORT
REMX commodity $55.78 $55.78 -2.37σ 252d alert SHORT
URA commodity $35.54 $35.54 -2.34σ 60d alert SHORT
ALB * commodity $97.97 $97.97 -1.88σ 252d watch SHORT
ZC=F commodity $480.75 $480.75 -1.82σ 30d watch SHORT
NG=F commodity $3.20 $3.20 +1.76σ 60d watch LONG
PDBC commodity $19.86 $19.86 +1.57σ 252d watch LONG
GC=F commodity $4,107.90 $4,107.90 -1.54σ 30d watch SHORT

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Middle East proxy actions and Eastern European energy posturing transmit primarily through oil and natgas channels with secondary safe-haven FX flows; independent market data show muted second-order cascades so far, with diplomatic tracks providing clear de-escalation paths.

Middle East medium

Iranian proxies renew strikes on Gulf shipping and oil terminals

oilfxrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F, USDJPY=X
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia signals tighter natgas flows into Europe ahead of winter

natgasrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
East Asia low

Chinese naval drills intensify around Taiwan Strait

risk_assetsfx
^GSPC, USDJPY=X
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: Saudi-mediated normalization talks accelerate or US offers sanctions relief, triggering rapid de-escalation

Hotspot calibration: 333/445 hits (75%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-17

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -0.70
7d net (n=6): $-2.09B
Income −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-2.70
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -0.76
credit_hy: latest=3.23, z=+1.13
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-17

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 5.31 | 3m -2.54 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.9% | 3m 18.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -41.9% | Max -48.1%
ENB
7.53 (assets: 41)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 39% | High-Vol 11% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 5.31 | 3m -2.54 | 12m -0.70
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.9% | 3m 18.9% | 12m 32.6%
Drawdown
Current -41.9% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (247d)170/37346% [41%-51%]+63.2%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/520% [4%-62%]-4.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.47 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-14

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (255d)351/64954% [50%-58%]+63.7%Longs only
Recent (8d)4/667% [30%-90%]+1.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.71 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-06 — STALE (41 days behind); figures are not current

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (41d)1/1100% [21%-100%]+5.7%Longs only

Combined

Includes a stale commodity or crypto ledger — see the dates above

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (255d)522/102351% [48%-54%]+63.5%Longs only
Recent (8d)5/1145% [21%-72%]-1.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.62 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.