The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-18 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest Rates → Financial 3.4σ critical p=65%Interest Rates → Commodity 3.4σ critical p=53%Interest Rates ^VIX 3.4σ criticalFinancial XLE 2.3σ alert p=62%Commodity CL=F 1.7σ watchCurrencyCryptoRates ↑Financial ↑Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto →Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗Yields are expected to remain elevated as restrictive expectations persist over 20 sessions.
  • Financial↗Indices are likely to stabilize as volatility mean-reverts with energy and quality leading.
  • Commodity↗Energy commodities are expected to stay firm while broad demand remains uneven.
  • Currency↗The dollar is expected to hold firm as tightening bias supports real yields.
  • Crypto→20d corr -0.13 — The FLAT block is expected to persist until next boundary unless correlation flips positive.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Interest Rates signal 3.4σ critical · DS 85% CT 52%
  • Financial signal 2.3σ alert p=62% · DS 76% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 1.7σ watch · DS 63% CT 53%
  • Interest Rates → Financial chord 3.4σ critical p=65% · DS 85% CT 52%
  • Interest Rates → Commodity chord 3.4σ critical p=53% · DS 85% CT 52%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
REMX -2.40σ down alert, lithium -1.91σ weak
Energies→
URA -2.15σ down alert vs CL +1.65σ up
Ags↘
Soybeans -2.00σ down, corn/wheat -1.8σ
Softs↗
Sugar +2.84σ up alert, coffee strong

Commodity Currencies

AUD↘
AUD -1.37z weakening vs USD
CAD↘
CAD -0.67z weakening vs USD
NZD→
NZD no z-score data
BRL↗
BRL +0.09z strengthening vs USD

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SB=F commodity $20.85 $20.85 +2.84σ 252d alert LONG
REMX commodity $54.23 $54.23 -2.40σ 252d alert SHORT
URA commodity $35.43 $35.43 -2.15σ 60d alert SHORT
ZS=F * commodity $1,261.25 $1,261.25 -2.00σ 30d alert SHORT
ALB commodity $95.48 $95.48 -1.91σ 252d watch SHORT
ZC=F commodity $474.25 $474.25 -1.80σ 30d watch SHORT
ZW=F * commodity $660.50 $660.50 -1.80σ 30d watch SHORT
PDBC * commodity $20.11 $20.11 +1.75σ 30d watch LONG
SI=F commodity $56.99 $56.99 -1.68σ 60d watch SHORT
CL=F commodity $101.41 $101.41 +1.65σ 60d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Geopolitical tensions persist in the Middle East and Eastern Europe but show contained transmission to commodities and risk assets, with active diplomatic tracks in Ukraine and indirect Iran talks providing de-escalation offsets. Second-order effects remain most relevant via energy substitutes and safe-haven FX rather than direct primary shocks.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy clashes with sporadic Strait of Hormuz threats

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine winter stalemate with marginal energy infrastructure strikes

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
Indo-Pacific medium

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan with US freedom-of-navigation response

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPX
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange closing Hormuz for 7+ days

Invalidate if: Saudi-mediated indirect talks produce verifiable de-escalation commitments or observable reduction in proxy militia activity

Hotspot calibration: 335/447 hits (75%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-18

Finance View — Three Sheets

Risk-off (moderate)
Cash Flow −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-5 BTC dominance Δ7d -0.82
BTC dom Δ7d: +1.64pp
Income −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-2.70
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -0.76
credit_hy: latest=3.23, z=+1.13
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF-1, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-18

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 6.40 | 3m -2.05 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.7% | 3m 19.1% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -40.5% | Max -48.1%
ENB
7.66 (assets: 41)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 39% | High-Vol 11% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 6.40 | 3m -2.05 | 12m -0.38
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.7% | 3m 19.1% | 12m 31.5%
Drawdown
Current -40.5% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (248d)171/37446% [41%-51%]+64.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/450% [15%-85%]-2.5%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.48 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-15

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (256d)352/65254% [50%-58%]+60.0%Longs only
Recent (8d)5/956% [27%-81%]-0.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.68 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (42d)1/250% [9%-91%]+2.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.61 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (256d)524/102851% [48%-54%]+61.6%Longs only
Recent (8d)7/1354% [29%-77%]-1.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.60 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.