The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-19 04:32 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest Rates → Financial 3.4σ critical p=50%Interest Rates ^VIX 3.4σ criticalFinancial XLE 2.3σ alert p=59%Commodity ALB 1.9σ watchCurrencyCryptoRates ↑Financial →Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto →Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗Expect 10-year yields to grind modestly higher over the next 20 sessions as policy stays restrictive.
  • Financial→Broad indices are expected to stabilize sideways as VIX mean-reverts and rotation broadens.
  • Commodity↗Crude oil is likely to hold firm while broad commodities see limited upside.
  • Currency↗USD is projected to remain firm with modest strength versus EUR and EM currencies.
  • Crypto→20d corr -0.14 — The FLAT block is expected to persist until the next 20-day boundary without a positive correlation flip.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Interest Rates signal 3.4σ critical · DS 85% CT 52%
  • Financial signal 2.3σ alert p=59% · DS 76% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 1.9σ watch · DS 68% CT 53%
  • Interest Rates → Financial chord 3.4σ critical p=50% · DS 85% CT 52%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
REMX -2.39σ alert down, ALB -1.91σ; weakening
Energies→
URA -2.15σ alert down, oil +1.65σ up; mixed
Ags↘
Soybeans -2.00σ down, corn/wheat -1.8σ
Softs↗
Sugar +2.83σ alert up

Commodity Currencies

AUD↘
AUD z30=-1.37 weakening vs USD
CAD↘
CAD z30=-0.67 weakening vs USD
NZD→
NZD no data available
BRL↗
BRL z30=+0.42 strengthening vs USD

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SB=F commodity $20.85 $20.85 +2.83σ 252d alert LONG
REMX commodity $54.23 $54.23 -2.39σ 252d alert SHORT
URA commodity $35.43 $35.43 -2.15σ 60d alert SHORT
ZS=F commodity $1,261.25 $1,261.25 -2.00σ 30d alert SHORT
ALB commodity $95.48 $95.48 -1.91σ 252d watch SHORT
ZC=F commodity $474.25 $474.25 -1.80σ 30d watch SHORT
ZW=F commodity $660.50 $660.50 -1.80σ 30d watch SHORT
PDBC commodity $20.11 $20.11 +1.75σ 30d watch LONG
SI=F * commodity $56.99 $56.99 -1.68σ 60d watch SHORT
CL=F commodity $101.41 $101.41 +1.65σ 60d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Persistent proxy tensions in the Middle East and infrastructure strikes in Ukraine show contained transmission to energy and risk channels due to spare OPEC+ capacity and diplomatic backchannels; second-order FX and rates effects remain muted absent orthogonal tape confirmation, with explicit de-escalation equilibria priced at ~40% over 7-30 days.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy clashes and threats to Gulf shipping lanes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy grid ahead of winter

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
East Asia medium

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan with US freedom-of-navigation response

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic strike on Saudi or Emirati oil facilities disrupting 15%+ of global supply

Invalidate if: US-Iran backchannel talks produce verifiable restraint commitments or mutual de-escalation signaling via intermediaries

Hotspot calibration: 335/447 hits (75%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-19

Finance View — Three Sheets

Risk-off (moderate)
Cash Flow −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -0.80
7d net (n=7): $-2.39B
Income −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-2.70
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -0.76
credit_hy: latest=3.23, z=+1.13
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF-1, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-19

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 6.40 | 3m -2.05 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.7% | 3m 19.1% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -40.5% | Max -48.1%
ENB
7.66 (assets: 41)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 39% | High-Vol 11% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 6.40 | 3m -2.05 | 12m -0.38
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.7% | 3m 19.1% | 12m 31.5%
Drawdown
Current -40.5% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (248d)171/37446% [41%-51%]+64.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/425% [5%-70%]-2.5%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.48 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-15 — newer signals are still awaiting resolution (41 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (257d)352/65254% [50%-58%]+60.0%Longs only
Recent (8d)5/956% [27%-81%]-0.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.68 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (43d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (257d)524/102851% [48%-54%]+61.6%Longs only
Recent (8d)6/1346% [23%-71%]-1.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.60 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.