The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-21 04:33 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Financial → Commodity 2.2σ alert p=45%Interest Rates ^TNX 1.8σ watchFinancial XLE 2.2σ alert p=57%Commodity ALB 1.9σ watchCurrencyCryptoRates ↑Financial →Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto →Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗Yields likely edge modestly higher over next 20 sessions as restrictive policy and firm oil persist.
  • Financial→Equity leadership expected to broaden defensively with broad indices grinding sideways.
  • Commodity↗Commodities likely rise modestly led by energy on supply discipline over 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗Dollar expected to remain supported and edge higher on rate and geo factors.
  • Crypto→20d corr -0.22 — FLAT block likely persists until next boundary absent correlation flip to positive.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial signal 2.2σ alert p=57% · DS 74% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 1.9σ watch · DS 68% CT 53%
  • Interest Rates signal 1.8σ watch · DS 67% CT 53%
  • Financial → Commodity chord 2.2σ alert p=45% · DS 74% CT 56%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
REMX -2.42σ down alert, lithium/silver weak
Energies→
URA -2.13σ down alert vs WTI +1.87σ up
Ags↘
Soybeans -2.15σ alert down, corn -1.95σ
Softs↗
Sugar +2.63σ alert up, coffee +1.55σ

Commodity Currencies

AUD→
AUD z30=+0.02 strengthening
CAD↗
CAD z30=+0.44 strengthening
NZD→
NZD no data
BRL↗
BRL z30=+1.20 strengthening

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
7 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SB=F commodity $20.57 $20.57 +2.63σ 252d alert LONG
REMX commodity $53.36 $53.36 -2.42σ 252d alert SHORT
ZS=F commodity $1,253.50 $1,253.50 -2.15σ 30d alert SHORT
URA commodity $35.27 $35.27 -2.13σ 252d alert SHORT
ZC=F commodity $467.00 $467.00 -1.95σ 30d watch SHORT
ALB * commodity $94.64 $94.64 -1.91σ 252d watch SHORT
CL=F * commodity $103.66 $103.66 +1.87σ 60d watch LONG
ZW=F commodity $655.25 $655.25 -1.85σ 30d watch SHORT
SI=F commodity $56.97 $56.97 -1.66σ 60d watch SHORT
PDBC commodity $20.07 $20.07 +1.65σ 252d watch LONG
KC=F * commodity $315.70 $315.70 +1.55σ 30d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Active diplomatic channels in Ukraine and the Middle East are containing escalation risks with limited transmission to energy and safe-haven assets so far; independent market signals show muted cascades into rates and risk premia, though Asia-Pacific posturing keeps convexity elevated.

Middle East medium

Fragile Israel-Iran proxy truce with sporadic Red Sea incidents but active US-Qatar mediation

oilrisk_assetsfx
CL=F, GC=F, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine winter stalemate with mutual infrastructure threats but backchannel cease-fire talks

natgasratesfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X, ZN=F
horizon: 30d
East Asia medium

Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan paired with North Korea missile tests amid US-Japan coordination

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, GC=F, ^VIX
horizon: 14d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Israel and Iran closing Strait of Hormuz for weeks

Invalidate if: Visible de-escalation via renewed multilateral talks in Oman or mutual drawdown of forward-deployed assets confirmed by satellite and shipping data

Hotspot calibration: 339/453 hits (75%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-21

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -1.00
7d net (n=7): $-3.11B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.94
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -0.80
credit_hy: latest=3.29, z=+1.20
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-21

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.01 | 3m -0.90 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.6% | 3m 19.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -38.5% | Max -48.1%
ENB
7.77 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 39% | High-Vol 11% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.01 | 3m -0.90 | 12m 0.09
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.6% | 3m 19.5% | 12m 30.8%
Drawdown
Current -38.5% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (251d)174/37746% [41%-51%]+67.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/367% [21%-94%]-1.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.49 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-18

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (259d)356/66054% [50%-58%]+53.0%Longs only
Recent (8d)9/1753% [31%-74%]-5.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.63 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (45d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (259d)531/103951% [48%-54%]+58.0%Longs only
Recent (8d)11/2055% [34%-74%]-4.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.