The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-22 04:33 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Financial → Interest Rates 2.2σ alert p=53%Interest Rates ^TNX 1.9σ watchFinancial XLE 2.2σ alert p=58%CommodityCurrencyCryptoRates ↑Financial →Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto →Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗Yields are expected to remain elevated over the next 20 sessions as restrictive policy persists.
  • Financial→Broad indices are likely to grind sideways as leadership broadens defensively over 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗Commodities are expected to stay firm with energy supported over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗The dollar is likely to remain supported by yield advantage over the 20-session horizon.
  • Crypto→20d corr -0.32 — The FLAT block is expected to persist over the next 20 sessions absent positive correlation flip.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial signal 2.2σ alert p=58% · DS 74% CT 56%
  • Interest Rates signal 1.9σ watch · DS 68% CT 53%
  • Financial → Interest Rates chord 2.2σ alert p=53% · DS 74% CT 56%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
REMX -2.41σ leads broad metals decline
Energies→
URA -2.12σ down vs CL +1.87σ up; mixed
Ags↘
Soybeans -2.15σ leads ag complex lower
Softs↗
Sugar +2.62σ leads softs higher

Commodity Currencies

AUD↘
z30=-0.11, weakening vs USD
CAD↗
z30=+0.71, strengthening vs USD
NZD→
No significant data
BRL↗
z30=+0.92, strengthening vs USD

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
7 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SB=F commodity $20.57 $20.57 +2.62σ 252d alert LONG
REMX commodity $53.36 $53.36 -2.41σ 252d alert SHORT
ZS=F * commodity $1,253.50 $1,253.50 -2.15σ 30d alert SHORT
URA commodity $35.27 $35.27 -2.12σ 252d alert SHORT
ZC=F commodity $467.00 $467.00 -1.95σ 30d watch SHORT
ALB commodity $94.64 $94.64 -1.90σ 252d watch SHORT
CL=F commodity $103.66 $103.66 +1.87σ 60d watch LONG
ZW=F * commodity $655.25 $655.25 -1.85σ 30d watch SHORT
SI=F commodity $56.97 $56.97 -1.66σ 60d watch SHORT
PDBC * commodity $20.07 $20.07 +1.65σ 252d watch LONG
KC=F commodity $315.70 $315.70 +1.55σ 30d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.47 stable

Geopolitical transmission to markets remains limited despite ongoing Middle East and Eastern Europe rhetoric; energy channels show no orthogonal confirmation via flows or vol term structure, with diplomatic incentives and historical patterns favoring contained signaling over cascade disruption in the 7-30 day window.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow conflict and Houthi threats to Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz shipping

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine winter energy leverage amid stalled front lines

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
East Asia low

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan amid semiconductor export controls

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct Iran-Israel kinetic strikes closing Hormuz and spiking energy prices 30%+

Invalidate if: Visible backchannel diplomacy or mutual de-escalation signals such as tanker clearances and reduced proxy attacks

Hotspot calibration: 343/456 hits (75%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-22

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=-0.79; USDJPY=X: z=-2.44; CNY=X: z=-2.90
Income 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+10.3%, XLV:+5.3%, XLP:+5.3%, XLU:+3.6%, XLF:+2.3%, XLK:-3.9%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -0.90
credit_hy: latest=3.33, z=+1.34
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-22

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 5.64 | 3m -0.59 | 12m 0.36
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.4% | 3m 19.0% | 12m 29.9%
Drawdown
Current -38.8% | Max -48.1%
ENB
7.38 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 5.64 | 3m -0.59 | 12m 0.16
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.4% | 3m 19.0% | 12m 30.6%
Drawdown
Current -38.8% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (252d)176/37847% [42%-52%]+65.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/333% [6%-79%]-4.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.48 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-19

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (260d)357/66354% [50%-58%]+52.2%Longs only
Recent (8d)8/1747% [26%-69%]-6.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.62 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (46d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (260d)534/104351% [48%-54%]+57.0%Longs only
Recent (8d)9/2045% [26%-66%]-6.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.57 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.