The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-23 04:32 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest Rates → Financial 2.8σ alert p=55%Interest Rates ^VIX 2.8σ alertFinancial XLE 2.2σ alert p=54%Commodity USO 1.7σ watchCurrencyCryptoRates ↑Financial →Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto →Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗10Y yields are likely to rise modestly over the next 20 sessions as restrictive policy holds.
  • Financial→Broad indices are expected to grind sideways with defensive leadership broadening over 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗Oil is likely to remain firm with energy outperforming over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗USD is expected to hold firm over the next 20 sessions keeping conditions tight.
  • Crypto→20d corr -0.18 — The FLAT block is expected to persist until the next boundary with no sign flip.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Interest Rates signal 2.8σ alert · DS 85% CT 56%
  • Financial signal 2.2σ alert p=54% · DS 75% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 1.7σ watch · DS 64% CT 53%
  • Interest Rates → Financial chord 2.8σ alert p=55% · DS 85% CT 56%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
REMX -2.32σ leads metals lower at alert
Energies↘
URA -2.01σ, NG -1.67σ down at alert
Ags↘
Wheat -2.40σ leads ag lower at alert
Softs↗
Sugar +2.46σ leads softs higher at alert

Commodity Currencies

AUD↗
AUD z30=+0.03 strengthening vs USD
CAD↗
CAD z30=+0.99 strengthening vs USD
NZD→
NZD no data available
BRL↗
BRL z30=+0.84 strengthening vs USD

Signals

0 Critical
5 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SB=F commodity $20.45 $20.45 +2.46σ 252d alert LONG
ZW=F commodity $628.25 $628.25 -2.40σ 30d alert SHORT
REMX commodity $53.37 $53.37 -2.32σ 252d alert SHORT
ZS=F commodity $1,245.25 $1,245.25 -2.02σ 30d alert SHORT
URA commodity $35.55 $35.55 -2.01σ 252d alert SHORT
ALB commodity $94.47 $94.47 -1.86σ 252d watch SHORT
KC=F commodity $316.15 $316.15 +1.75σ 30d watch LONG
ZC=F commodity $463.25 $463.25 -1.74σ 30d watch SHORT
NG=F * commodity $2.79 $2.79 -1.67σ 30d watch SHORT
PDBC commodity $19.98 $19.98 +1.57σ 252d watch LONG
SI=F * commodity $57.42 $57.42 -1.53σ 60d watch SHORT

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Contained state tensions across the Middle East, Ukraine, and East Asia show limited near-term transmission to core pricing channels, as strategic reflexivity and physical flow data indicate pre-pricing and de-escalation equilibria. Second-order monitoring warranted for gold, selective FX, and natgas volatility over 7-30 days.

Persian Gulf medium

Iran-Israel proxy exchanges with restrained direct strikes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Ukraine winter energy talks amid frozen front lines

natgasrates
NG=F, ZN=F
horizon: 21d
East Asia low

Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan with signaling rhetoric

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, ES=F
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Strait of Hormuz disruption from direct Iran-Israel kinetic conflict

Invalidate if: Backchannel diplomacy yields observable stand-down in proxy attacks and renewed multilateral energy talks

Hotspot calibration: 345/458 hits (75%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-23

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction -1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=-2.33
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-2.08
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score +0.70
real_yield_10y: latest=2.76, z=-1.04
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-23

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 1.25 | 3m -1.09 | 12m 0.30
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.2% | 3m 19.6% | 12m 30.0%
Drawdown
Current -41.0% | Max -48.1%
ENB
7.61 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 1.25 | 3m -1.09 | 12m 0.11
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.2% | 3m 19.6% | 12m 30.7%
Drawdown
Current -41.0% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (253d)175/37946% [41%-51%]+52.5%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/729% [8%-64%]-12.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.42 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-20

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (261d)357/66654% [50%-57%]+48.8%Longs only
Recent (8d)6/1735% [17%-59%]-9.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.59 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (47d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (261d)533/104751% [48%-54%]+50.1%Longs only
Recent (8d)8/2433% [18%-53%]-10.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.53 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.