The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-24 04:32 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest Rates → Financial 2.9σ alert p=61%Interest Rates ^VIX 2.9σ alertFinancial XLE 2.4σ alert p=56%Commodity USO 2.5σ alertCurrencyCryptoRates ↑Financial →Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto ↑Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Financial→SPY is expected to be neutral over the next 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗PDBC is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗UUP is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.13 — BTC-USD is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Interest Rates signal 2.9σ alert · DS 85% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 2.5σ alert · DS 79% CT 56%
  • Financial signal 2.4σ alert p=56% · DS 78% CT 56%
  • Interest Rates → Financial chord 2.9σ alert p=61% · DS 85% CT 56%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
REMX -2.32σ leads metals lower at alert
Energies↘
URA -2.01σ leads energy lower at alert
Ags↘
Wheat -2.40σ leads ags lower at alert
Softs↗
Sugar +2.45σ leads softs higher at alert

Commodity Currencies

AUD↗
AUD +0.08z30 strengthening vs USD
CAD↗
CAD +0.58z30 strengthening vs USD
NZD→
NZD no data, no clear direction
BRL↗
BRL +0.90z30 leads strengthening

Signals

0 Critical
5 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SB=F * commodity $20.45 $20.45 +2.45σ 252d alert LONG
ZW=F commodity $628.25 $628.25 -2.40σ 30d alert SHORT
REMX * commodity $53.37 $53.37 -2.32σ 252d alert SHORT
ZS=F commodity $1,245.25 $1,245.25 -2.02σ 30d alert SHORT
URA * commodity $35.55 $35.55 -2.01σ 252d alert SHORT
ALB commodity $94.47 $94.47 -1.86σ 252d watch SHORT
KC=F commodity $316.15 $316.15 +1.75σ 30d watch LONG
ZC=F * commodity $463.25 $463.25 -1.74σ 30d watch SHORT
NG=F commodity $2.79 $2.79 -1.67σ 30d watch SHORT
PDBC commodity $19.98 $19.98 +1.58σ 252d watch LONG
SI=F commodity $57.42 $57.42 -1.53σ 60d watch SHORT

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Persistent proxy frictions in the Middle East and Ukraine show limited market coupling, with oil and natgas prices stable and no orthogonal confirmation of acute transmission into risk premia or vol. Diplomatic signaling and winter seasonality support a stable regime with no VIX>30 or CL>15% move expected over the next 20 sessions.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy tensions with threats to Gulf shipping lanes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 35d
Eastern Europe high

Ukraine front stabilization and backchannel ceasefire discussions

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 20d
East Asia low

Routine PLA naval drills near Taiwan with no blockade signals

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 60d
Top tail risk low severe

Unexpected kinetic strike on Gulf energy infrastructure

Invalidate if: Visible de-escalation via US-China mediated talks or verifiable drawdown in regional troop movements

Hotspot calibration: 348/461 hits (75%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-24

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction -1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=-2.49
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.58
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=3.40, z=+1.78
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-24

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -1.32 | 3m -1.24 | 12m 0.21
Rolling Volatility
1m 16.0% | 3m 19.1% | 12m 29.9%
Drawdown
Current -42.0% | Max -48.1%
ENB
8.26 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -1.32 | 3m -1.24 | 12m -0.00
Rolling Volatility
1m 16.0% | 3m 19.1% | 12m 30.6%
Drawdown
Current -42.0% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (254d)174/38046% [41%-51%]+58.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/729% [8%-64%]-13.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.45 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-21

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (262d)357/66953% [50%-57%]+45.7%Longs only
Recent (8d)5/1729% [13%-53%]-9.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.55 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (48d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (262d)532/105151% [48%-54%]+50.3%Longs only
Recent (8d)7/2429% [15%-49%]-10.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.52 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.