The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-25 04:32 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest Rates → Financial 2.9σ alert p=48%Interest Rates ^VIX 2.9σ alertFinancial XLE 2.4σ alert p=55%Commodity USO 2.5σ alertCurrencyCrypto BTC-USD 1.6σ watchRates ↑Financial →Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto ↑Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Financial→SPY is expected to be neutral over the next 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗PDBC is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗UUP is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.18 — BTC-USD is expected to be higher as correlation is above zero.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Interest Rates signal 2.9σ alert · DS 85% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 2.5σ alert · DS 79% CT 56%
  • Financial signal 2.4σ alert p=55% · DS 79% CT 56%
  • Crypto signal 1.6σ watch · DS 61% CT 53%
  • Interest Rates → Financial chord 2.9σ alert p=48% · DS 85% CT 56%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
REMX -2.36σ & Silver -2.34σ down alerts
Energies→
NatGas -2.39σ alert down, Crude +1.61σ up
Ags↘
Wheat -1.99σ & Corn -1.70σ down watches
Softs↗
Sugar +2.26σ alert up; softs firm

Commodity Currencies

AUD→
AUD z30=+0.02 mildly strengthening
CAD↗
CAD z30=+1.01 strengthening vs USD
NZD→
NZD no data available
BRL↗
BRL z30=+0.50 strengthening vs USD

Signals

0 Critical
6 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
NG=F commodity $2.64 $2.64 -2.39σ 30d alert SHORT
REMX commodity $51.46 $51.46 -2.36σ 252d alert SHORT
SI=F commodity $53.71 $53.71 -2.34σ 60d alert SHORT
SB=F commodity $20.24 $20.24 +2.26σ 252d alert LONG
URA commodity $34.11 $34.11 -2.17σ 252d alert SHORT
PDBC commodity $20.34 $20.34 +2.12σ 30d alert LONG
ZW=F commodity $625.00 $625.00 -1.99σ 30d watch SHORT
GC=F * commodity $4,007.90 $4,007.90 -1.99σ 30d watch SHORT
ALB * commodity $93.67 $93.67 -1.83σ 252d watch SHORT
ZC=F commodity $456.00 $456.00 -1.70σ 30d watch SHORT
CL=F * commodity $103.27 $103.27 +1.61σ 60d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Middle East proxy actions and Ukraine winter energy posturing show contained transmission to oil and natgas with muted second-order FX/risk-asset ripples; diplomatic backchannels and pre-priced cascades keep the 20-session regime stable absent orthogonal confirmation of supply shocks.

Middle East medium

Iranian proxy militia exchanges with Israeli forces near Golan without direct state strikes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 35d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine frontline stalemate entering winter with LNG diversion talks

natgasoil
NG=F, CL=F
horizon: 20d
East Asia low

Routine PLA naval transits near Taiwan coinciding with US defense reviews

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X
horizon: 60d
Top tail risk low severe

Unexpected closure of Strait of Hormuz from miscalculated strike cycle

Invalidate if: Sustained diplomatic talks between Gulf states and Iran or observable increase in tanker transits

Hotspot calibration: 351/464 hits (76%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-25

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction -1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=-2.49
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.58
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=3.40, z=+1.78
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-25

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.86 | 3m -0.43 | 12m 0.21
Rolling Volatility
1m 15.0% | 3m 19.0% | 12m 29.8%
Drawdown
Current -40.6% | Max -48.1%
ENB
7.85 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.86 | 3m -0.43 | 12m -0.02
Rolling Volatility
1m 15.0% | 3m 19.0% | 12m 30.5%
Drawdown
Current -40.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (255d)175/38246% [41%-51%]+65.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/60% [0%-39%]-16.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.48 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-22

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (263d)359/67353% [50%-57%]+47.4%Longs only
Recent (8d)6/1932% [15%-54%]-5.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.57 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (1 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (49d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (263d)535/105751% [48%-54%]+53.7%Longs only
Recent (8d)6/2524% [11%-43%]-8.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.54 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.