The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-26 04:33 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest Rates → Financial 2.9σ alert p=68%Interest Rates → Commodity 2.9σ alert p=49%Interest Rates ^VIX 2.9σ alertFinancial XLE 2.5σ alert p=55%Commodity USO 2.5σ alertCurrencyCrypto BTC-USD 1.9σ watchRates ↑Financial ↑Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto ↑Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Financial↗SPY is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗PDBC is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗UUP is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.32 — BTC-USD is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Interest Rates signal 2.9σ alert · DS 85% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 2.5σ alert · DS 79% CT 56%
  • Financial signal 2.5σ alert p=55% · DS 79% CT 56%
  • Crypto signal 1.9σ watch · DS 67% CT 53%
  • Interest Rates → Financial chord 2.9σ alert p=68% · DS 85% CT 56%
  • Interest Rates → Commodity chord 2.9σ alert p=49% · DS 85% CT 56%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
Rare Earths -2.36σ, Silver -2.34σ lead lower
Energies→
Nat Gas -2.39σ down vs Crude +1.61σ up
Ags↘
Wheat -1.99σ, Corn -1.70σ lead ag lower
Softs↗
Sugar +2.26σ drives softs higher

Commodity Currencies

AUD↗
z30=+0.02, strengthening vs USD
CAD↗
z30=+1.01, strengthening vs USD
NZD→
No data available
BRL↗
z30=+1.09, strengthening vs USD

Signals

0 Critical
6 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
NG=F commodity $2.64 $2.64 -2.39σ 30d alert SHORT
REMX commodity $51.46 $51.46 -2.36σ 252d alert SHORT
SI=F commodity $53.71 $53.71 -2.34σ 60d alert SHORT
SB=F commodity $20.24 $20.24 +2.26σ 252d alert LONG
URA commodity $34.11 $34.11 -2.17σ 252d alert SHORT
PDBC * commodity $20.34 $20.34 +2.12σ 30d alert LONG
ZW=F * commodity $625.00 $625.00 -1.99σ 30d watch SHORT
GC=F commodity $4,007.90 $4,007.90 -1.99σ 30d watch SHORT
ALB commodity $93.67 $93.67 -1.83σ 252d watch SHORT
ZC=F commodity $456.00 $456.00 -1.70σ 30d watch SHORT
CL=F commodity $103.27 $103.27 +1.61σ 60d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.32 stable

Persistent frictions in Ukraine, Levant proxy clashes, and Indo-Pacific naval posturing show limited market coupling given strategic reflexivity favoring calibrated signaling over rupture; energy futures curves and cross-asset correlations remain anchored, supporting a stable regime with no VIX>30 or >15% oil shock expected inside 20 sessions.

Eastern Europe medium

Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter

natgasoil
NG=F, CL=F
horizon: 25d
Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy exchanges in Syria and Lebanon

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Indo-Pacific low

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan and Senkakus

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 35d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: Observable diplomatic breakthroughs via backchannels or reduced proxy attacks confirming mutual interest in de-escalation equilibrium

Hotspot calibration: 352/466 hits (76%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-26

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -0.85
7d net (n=7): $-2.54B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.58
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=3.40, z=+1.78
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-26

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.86 | 3m -0.43 | 12m 0.21
Rolling Volatility
1m 15.0% | 3m 19.0% | 12m 29.8%
Drawdown
Current -40.6% | Max -48.1%
ENB
7.85 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.86 | 3m -0.43 | 12m -0.02
Rolling Volatility
1m 15.0% | 3m 19.0% | 12m 30.5%
Drawdown
Current -40.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (255d)175/38246% [41%-51%]+65.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/50% [0%-43%]-15.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.48 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-22 — newer signals are still awaiting resolution (48 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (264d)359/67353% [50%-57%]+47.4%Longs only
Recent (8d)5/1729% [13%-53%]-3.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.57 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (2 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (50d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (264d)535/105751% [48%-54%]+53.7%Longs only
Recent (8d)5/2223% [10%-43%]-6.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.54 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.