The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-27 04:33 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest Rates ^VIX 1.9σ watchFinancial XLE 2.5σ alert p=65%Commodity USO 1.8σ watchCurrencyCrypto BTC-USD 1.7σ watchRates ↑Financial ↓Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto ↑Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield ^TNX is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Financial↘SPY is expected to be lower over the next 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗PDBC is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗UUP is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.22 — BTC-USD is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial signal 2.5σ alert p=65% · DS 80% CT 56%
  • Interest Rates signal 1.9σ watch · DS 69% CT 53%
  • Commodity signal 1.8σ watch · DS 66% CT 53%
  • Crypto signal 1.7σ watch · DS 64% CT 53%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
REMX -2.36σ & Silver -2.34σ down alerts
Energies→
NatGas -2.39σ down alert, Crude +1.61σ up
Ags↘
Wheat -1.99σ & Corn -1.70σ down watch
Softs↗
Sugar +2.26σ up at alert

Commodity Currencies

AUD↗
AUD +0.40σ strengthening
CAD↗
CAD +1.13σ strengthening
NZD→
NZD no data
BRL↗
BRL +1.09σ strengthening

Signals

0 Critical
6 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
NG=F * commodity $2.64 $2.64 -2.39σ 30d alert SHORT
REMX commodity $51.46 $51.46 -2.36σ 252d alert SHORT
SI=F * commodity $53.71 $53.71 -2.34σ 60d alert SHORT
SB=F commodity $20.24 $20.24 +2.26σ 252d alert LONG
URA commodity $34.11 $34.11 -2.17σ 252d alert SHORT
PDBC commodity $20.34 $20.34 +2.12σ 30d alert LONG
ZW=F commodity $625.00 $625.00 -1.99σ 30d watch SHORT
GC=F commodity $4,007.90 $4,007.90 -1.99σ 30d watch SHORT
ALB commodity $93.67 $93.67 -1.83σ 252d watch SHORT
ZC=F commodity $456.00 $456.00 -1.70σ 30d watch SHORT
CL=F commodity $103.27 $103.27 +1.61σ 60d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.33 stable

Diplomatic backchannels in the Middle East and Ukraine show incremental progress amid contained proxy actions, with orthogonal market signals (flat oil forward curves, compressed risk premia, stable VIX term structure) confirming low near-term transmission. No VIX>30 or >15% CL move is expected in the 20-session window.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow conflict with Houthi proxy incidents but active Qatar-mediated talks

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 35d
Eastern Europe medium

Russia-Ukraine winter stalemate with renewed ceasefire exploration via third-party mediators

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 50d
East Asia low

Routine PLA drills near Taiwan with no blockade signals and reciprocal US diplomatic visits

risk_assetsfx
^VIX, USDJPY=X
horizon: 20d
Top tail risk low severe

Unexpected kinetic strike on Gulf energy infrastructure closing Hormuz for days

Invalidate if: Visible progress in Oman/Qatar talks or observable de-mobilization of proxy militias

Hotspot calibration: 356/470 hits (76%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-27

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth +0.87
AUDUSD=X: +0.31%; CADUSD=X: +0.95%; NZDUSD=X: +0.79%; BRLUSD=X: +4.89%
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-4 AI proxy breadth (above 50DMA) -1.00
1/5 above; NVDA:- AMD:- TSM:- GOOGL:- MSFT:+
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=3.38, z=+1.62
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-27

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.86 | 3m -0.43 | 12m 0.21
Rolling Volatility
1m 15.0% | 3m 19.0% | 12m 29.8%
Drawdown
Current -40.6% | Max -48.1%
ENB
7.85 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.86 | 3m -0.43 | 12m -0.02
Rolling Volatility
1m 15.0% | 3m 19.0% | 12m 30.5%
Drawdown
Current -40.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (255d)175/38246% [41%-51%]+65.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-7.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.48 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-22 — STALE (5 days behind); figures are not current

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (265d)359/67353% [50%-57%]+47.4%Longs only
Recent (8d)3/1323% [8%-50%]-3.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.57 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (3 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (51d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

Includes a stale commodity or crypto ledger — see the dates above

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (265d)535/105751% [48%-54%]+53.7%Longs only
Recent (8d)5/2124% [11%-45%]-5.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.54 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.