The Silk Risk Dashboard
2026-10-28 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
- Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Financial↘SPY is likely to move lower over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗PDBC is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗UUP is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.30 — BTC-USD is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
- Financial signal 2.5σ alert p=62% · DS 80% CT 56%
- Commodity signal 1.6σ watch · DS 63% CT 53%
- Financial → Crypto chord 2.5σ alert p=47% · DS 80% CT 56%
Market Situation
Commodity Sectors
Metals↘
REMX -2.30σ, Silver -2.17σ lead downside
Energies↘
NG -2.33σ, URA -2.10σ on alert
Ags↘
Wheat -2.04σ leads ag pullback
Softs↗
Sugar +1.68σ upside breakout
Commodity Currencies
AUD↗
AUD z30=+0.23 strengthening vs USD
CAD↗
CAD z30=+1.04 leading strength
NZD→
No data available
BRL↗
BRL z30=+0.78 strengthening vs USD
Signals
0
Critical
5
Alert
6
Watch
Click row for details
| Asset | Class | Entry | Current | Z-Score | Window | Level | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG=F | commodity | $2.60 | $2.60 | -2.33σ | 30d | alert | SHORT |
| REMX * | commodity | $51.70 | $51.70 | -2.30σ | 252d | alert | SHORT |
| SI=F | commodity | $54.11 | $54.11 | -2.17σ | 60d | alert | SHORT |
| URA * | commodity | $34.36 | $34.36 | -2.10σ | 252d | alert | SHORT |
| ZW=F | commodity | $616.00 | $616.00 | -2.04σ | 30d | alert | SHORT |
| ALB | commodity | $93.42 | $93.42 | -1.81σ | 252d | watch | SHORT |
| ZS=F * | commodity | $1,241.25 | $1,241.25 | -1.79σ | 30d | watch | SHORT |
| SB=F * | commodity | $19.10 | $19.10 | +1.68σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| GC=F | commodity | $4,038.40 | $4,038.40 | -1.68σ | 60d | watch | SHORT |
| PDBC | commodity | $20.15 | $20.15 | +1.64σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| ZC=F * | commodity | $455.00 | $455.00 | -1.59σ | 30d | watch | SHORT |
Risk
Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions
Geopolitical Risk
0.31 stable
Geopolitical hotspots in the Middle East and East Asia show persistent friction but lack orthogonal market confirmation of imminent transmission; independent pricing in oil curves, FX options, and vol surfaces remains range-bound, supporting a stable 20-session regime with de-escalation equilibria available to rational actors.
Middle East medium
Iran-Israel indirect clashes with proxy militia activity
oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 35d
East Asia medium
Chinese naval patrols and drills near Taiwan Strait
fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, EURUSD=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe low
Russia-Ukraine attrition with winter energy leverage
natgasoil
NG=F, CL=F
horizon: 45d
Top tail risk low severe
Direct kinetic strike on Gulf energy infrastructure
Invalidate if: Backchannel diplomacy via third parties yields verifiable restraint signals and physical oil premiums remain subdued
Hotspot calibration: 357/475 hits (75%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels
Finance View — Three Sheets
Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -0.99
7d net (n=7): $-2.98B
Income 0 neutral
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+12.3%, XLU:+9.2%, XLP:+5.9%, XLV:+4.6%, XLF:+3.1%, XLK:-2.6%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score +1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.66, z=-1.78
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See
docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md. Sleeve Ledger — Money Management
MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
Account paper
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
| Sleeve | Target | Buffer | Admission cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| silk_commodity_etf | 40% | +5pp | $27,000 |
| silk_commodity_futures | 40% | +5pp | $27,000 |
| silk_crypto | 20% | +5pp | $15,000 |
| silk_equity | 40% | +5pp | $27,000 |
| silk_futures | 10% | +5pp | $9,000 |
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)
MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.
Metrics
Core (Equity)
Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.76 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 0.15
Rolling Volatility
1m 15.1% | 3m 18.9% | 12m 29.8%
Drawdown
Current -41.9% | Max -48.1%
ENB
7.54 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Commodities
Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Crypto
No backtest summary available.
Combined
Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.76 | 3m -0.27 | 12m -0.04
Rolling Volatility
1m 15.1% | 3m 18.9% | 12m 30.5%
Drawdown
Current -41.9% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 42% | High-Vol 8% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Performance Scorecard
Core Forecast
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (522d) | 416/957 | 43% [40%-47%] | +328.5% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (258d) | 176/385 | 46% [41%-51%] | +54.2% | Longs only |
| Recent (7d) | 3/8 | 38% [14%-69%] | -9.5% | Longs only |
| OOS Sharpe | 0.43 (annualized, trade-level) | Longs only | ||
Commodity OOS
Last updated with signals through 2026-10-25
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (2089d) | 2274/4959 | 46% [44%-47%] | +183.7% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (266d) | 364/685 | 53% [49%-57%] | +40.9% | Longs only |
| Recent (8d) | 7/22 | 32% [16%-53%] | -7.5% | Longs only |
| OOS Sharpe | 0.48 (annualized, trade-level) | Longs only | ||
Crypto OOS
Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (3 pending)
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (2396d) | 42/69 | 61% [49%-72%] | +821.2% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (52d) | 1/2 | 50% [9%-91%] | +1.9% | Longs only |
| OOS Sharpe | 0.58 (annualized, trade-level) | Longs only | ||
Combined
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (2396d) | 2732/5985 | 46% [44%-47%] | +214.2% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (266d) | 541/1072 | 50% [47%-53%] | +45.6% | Longs only |
| Recent (8d) | 10/30 | 33% [19%-51%] | -8.0% | Longs only |
| OOS Sharpe | 0.46 (annualized, trade-level) | Longs only | ||