The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-29 04:32 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Financial → Interest Rates 2.2σ alert p=49%Interest Rates ^TNX 1.5σ watch p=58%Financial XLE 2.2σ alert p=65%Commodity USO 1.7σ watchCurrencyCryptoRates ↑Financial ↑Commodity ↑Currency ↓Crypto ↑Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Financial↗SPY is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗PDBC is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency↘UUP is expected to move lower over the next 20 sessions.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.25 — BTC-USD is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial signal 2.2σ alert p=65% · DS 73% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 1.7σ watch · DS 64% CT 53%
  • Interest Rates signal 1.5σ watch p=58% · DS 60% CT 53%
  • Financial → Interest Rates chord 2.2σ alert p=49% · DS 73% CT 56%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
REMX -2.3σ, Silver -2.2σ lead broad selloff
Energies↘
Nat Gas -2.3σ, Uranium -2.1σ on downside
Ags↘
Wheat -2.0σ leads ag complex lower
Softs↗
Sugar +1.7σ standout upside move

Commodity Currencies

AUD↗
AUD +0.5σ strengthening vs USD
CAD↗
CAD +1.5σ strengthening vs USD
NZD→
NZD no z-score data available
BRL↘
BRL -0.9σ weakening vs USD

Signals

0 Critical
5 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
NG=F commodity $2.60 $2.60 -2.33σ 30d alert SHORT
REMX commodity $51.70 $51.70 -2.30σ 252d alert SHORT
SI=F commodity $54.11 $54.11 -2.17σ 60d alert SHORT
URA commodity $34.36 $34.36 -2.10σ 252d alert SHORT
ZW=F commodity $616.00 $616.00 -2.04σ 30d alert SHORT
ALB * commodity $93.42 $93.42 -1.81σ 252d watch SHORT
ZS=F commodity $1,241.25 $1,241.25 -1.79σ 30d watch SHORT
SB=F commodity $19.10 $19.10 +1.68σ 252d watch LONG
GC=F * commodity $4,038.40 $4,038.40 -1.68σ 60d watch SHORT
PDBC commodity $20.15 $20.15 +1.64σ 252d watch LONG
ZC=F commodity $455.00 $455.00 -1.59σ 30d watch SHORT

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.33 stable

Geopolitical transmission remains muted with primary shocks already absorbed into selective commodity curves and safe-haven FX; diplomatic backchannels and actor reflexivity favor contained equilibria over market-forcing escalations, implying no VIX>30 or >15% CL move in the 20-session window.

Middle East medium

Iran proxy militia clashes with Israeli responses amid stalled nuclear talks

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 25d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine front stabilization with intermittent winter energy diplomacy

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 40d
Indo-Pacific low

US-China friction over Taiwan patrols and export controls

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPY
horizon: 60d
Top tail risk medium high

Hybrid cyber-physical attack on European LNG infrastructure

Invalidate if: Independent on-chain and European storage data show no pre-positioning stress, or Ukraine ceasefire momentum reduces hybrid incentives

Hotspot calibration: 362/478 hits (76%), Brier 0.227 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-29

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -1.00
7d net (n=7): $-4.12B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+11.2%, XLU:+7.0%, XLP:+6.1%, XLV:+5.3%, XLF:+3.9%, XLK:-1.8%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score +1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.64, z=-1.74
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-29

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -6.05 | 3m -1.65 | 12m -0.07
Rolling Volatility
1m 21.4% | 3m 21.1% | 12m 30.2%
Drawdown
Current -46.4% | Max -48.1%
ENB
6.55 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 36% | High-Vol 14% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -6.05 | 3m -1.65 | 12m -0.26
Rolling Volatility
1m 21.4% | 3m 21.1% | 12m 30.8%
Drawdown
Current -46.4% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (259d)175/38645% [40%-50%]+47.2%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/633% [10%-70%]-9.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.40 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-26

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (267d)364/68953% [49%-57%]+38.1%Longs only
Recent (8d)7/2330% [16%-51%]-7.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.45 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (3 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (53d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (267d)540/107750% [47%-53%]+41.3%Longs only
Recent (8d)9/2931% [17%-49%]-7.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.43 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.